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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jul 2, 2019 16:11:05 GMT -5
Ender has a career wRC+ of 93 and can be counted on to have an OPS under .700 for the first 3-4 months of every season. His WAR is always based on his defense, every team in baseball is well aware of all that. He is one case where I don't think the numbers add up to what his value would seem to be if you go by numbers. At times numbers can be deceiving, we all know that, and I'm sure GMs in baseball are well aware of what Ender's real value actually is. The trade machine has Ender at 64 and Freeman at 35. Ummmmmmmm.....OK. Freeman is also making $20 million a year. I've already explained it, if you don't understand how surplus value works, then stop talking trade machine. You clearly don't get it.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jul 2, 2019 16:12:36 GMT -5
Again... I don't think GM's look at surplus value math and make a deal as soon as that math adds up.
Just doesn't happen.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jul 2, 2019 16:13:24 GMT -5
Ender has a career wRC+ of 93 and can be counted on to have an OPS under .700 for the first 3-4 months of every season. His WAR is always based on his defense, every team in baseball is well aware of all that. He is one case where I don't think the numbers add up to what his value would seem to be if you go by numbers. At times numbers can be deceiving, we all know that, and I'm sure GMs in baseball are well aware of what Ender's real value actually is. The trade machine has Ender at 64 and Freeman at 35. Ummmmmmmm.....OK. Yeah I looked at our player rankings on that once and it looked pretty wonky to me. I also think every team has its own way of evaluating players. Ender has enough drawbacks I don’t think there’s any way he has anything more than moderate value to any team.
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Post by keystone61 on Jul 2, 2019 16:15:56 GMT -5
The trade machine has Ender at 64 and Freeman at 35. Ummmmmmmm.....OK. Freeman is also making $20 million a year. I've already explained it, if you don't understand how surplus value works, then stop talking trade machine. You clearly don't get it. Oh, I get it. I also get that anything that values Ender Inciarte at twice what it does Freddie Freeman is full of crap, regardless of salary.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jul 2, 2019 16:16:11 GMT -5
Again... I don't think GM's look at surplus value math and make a deal as soon as that math adds up. Just doesn't happen. I’d like to see some proof of deals done in the past where it did add up to the machine and surplus value because I don’t think it works that way either. Maybe once in a blue moon. If it did we could do away with human GMs and just use robo GMs!
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Post by keystone61 on Jul 2, 2019 16:18:18 GMT -5
Again... I don't think GM's look at surplus value math and make a deal as soon as that math adds up. Just doesn't happen. I’d like to see some proof of deals done in the past where it did add up to the machine and surplus value because I don’t think it works that way either. Maybe once in a blue moon. If it did we could do away with human GMs and just use robo GMs! I don't doubt that it factors in, but that's all it would be is a factor, and probably not even a major one. Saber nerds don't run baseball teams...........thank God.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jul 2, 2019 16:20:14 GMT -5
It's is accurate. Inciarte has two really good things going for him; defense and a cheap contract. Both of these result in him having a lot of surplus value. If you're a low-payroll team and you value defense, then Inciarte is a good get. You have to remember that a player's value is based on TOTAL WAR and their contract. If the cost of 1.0 WAR on the open market is $9 million, then a 1.0 WAR player is worth $9 million. Inciarte is, roughly, a 3.0 WAR player, mostly derived from defense, and he's $5.7 million, this year, and $16.4 million over the following two years. He's immensely valuable. Ender has a career wRC+ of 93 and can be counted on to have an OPS under .700 for the first 3-4 months of every season. His WAR is always based on his defense, every team in baseball is well aware of all that. He is one case where I don't think the numbers add up to what his value would seem to be if you go by numbers. At times numbers can be deceiving, we all know that, and I'm sure GMs in baseball are well aware of what Ender's real value actually is. I'm not really understanding what your point is. You're saying the numbers don't add up, but the do add up, you just don't understand how the numbers can be where they are. I find it funny that you use the term "real value", but it seems you're not really grasping what "real value" is. This is evident by the fact that you are placing offensive contribution above defensive contribution. In WAR, you don't get bonus points for being better offensively, and you don't get docked points for being "all glove, no bat". Value is value is value. You may not like that defense is valued equally to offense, but under WAR (Which is the main stat used to derive value) defense scores just like offense. What WAR shows is that if you're a GM and you want an defensively elite CFer, who's on a very affordable contract, and you don't care about offensive production, then Inciarte is a really good get. For years, teams have signed guys like this, and they still are. The Royals are paying Billy Hamilton, and his 61 wRC+, $5.25 million (With an additional $7.5 million, if they pick up his option) to be their starting CFer. There are teams that would trade for a guy like that. Of course, it'd be better if Inciarte was hitting, at least, league average, but his value isn't a fugazi because he doesn't.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jul 2, 2019 16:21:27 GMT -5
Again... I don't think GM's look at surplus value math and make a deal as soon as that math adds up. Just doesn't happen. No, they don't, because after that there's still the negotiation. Surplus value math is just the jumping off point.
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Post by keystone61 on Jul 2, 2019 16:29:05 GMT -5
Sounds to me like this is better proof of WAR being a pretty meaningless stat than it is of anything else, especially at the present time when more than ever, offense is king. Paying Hamilton $5 million mostly just means whoever is paying him that is stupid. There's tons of guys who can replace him for a fraction of that. He's awful. He's always been awful.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jul 2, 2019 17:02:31 GMT -5
Ender has a career wRC+ of 93 and can be counted on to have an OPS under .700 for the first 3-4 months of every season. His WAR is always based on his defense, every team in baseball is well aware of all that. He is one case where I don't think the numbers add up to what his value would seem to be if you go by numbers. At times numbers can be deceiving, we all know that, and I'm sure GMs in baseball are well aware of what Ender's real value actually is. I'm not really understanding what your point is. You're saying the numbers don't add up, but the do add up, you just don't understand how the numbers can be where they are. I find it funny that you use the term "real value", but it seems you're not really grasping what "real value" is. This is evident by the fact that you are placing offensive contribution above defensive contribution. In WAR, you don't get bonus points for being better offensively, and you don't get docked points for being "all glove, no bat". Value is value is value. You may not like that defense is valued equally to offense, but under WAR (Which is the main stat used to derive value) defense scores just like offense. What WAR shows is that if you're a GM and you want an defensively elite CFer, who's on a very affordable contract, and you don't care about offensive production, then Inciarte is a really good get. For years, teams have signed guys like this, and they still are. The Royals are paying Billy Hamilton, and his 61 wRC+, $5.25 million (With an additional $7.5 million, if they pick up his option) to be their starting CFer. There are teams that would trade for a guy like that. Of course, it'd be better if Inciarte was hitting, at least, league average, but his value isn't a fugazi because he doesn't. My belief is that every team has its own system and that WAR is some general point of reference the whole world can use to make a rough guesstimate of players real values. To me it’s the best tool available, but it’s still rough. So anything that’s using WAR has the same flaw, it’s a rough guess. It’s as good a rough guess as we can make if we want to try to narrow the evaluation down to just one thing. My point is when it comes to the actual dealings of GMs, they may look at WAR but likely it’s only part of how they make their decisions, with the percentage being different from team to team.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jul 2, 2019 17:03:36 GMT -5
$5mm is change these days, so I wouldn't say it's terrible to pay something for a good defender like that.
My point on surplus value is that teams often look at how easy it is to fill a role like the one Ender fills. As was pointed out, we could call up Pache and fill that need if it came down to it and I'm sure other organizations may be similar. Madbum may not offer "value" but I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that SF will want a lot more than just offsetting surplus value for him. A lot more.
Also when looking at defensive WAR, I think there are wildly varying ways different organizations look at it. I think SF would value a 3.0 player who got that because of offense than they would because of defense... what with them being 28th in the league in scoring runs.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jul 2, 2019 17:09:41 GMT -5
When it comes to using WAR, what does the machine use, career WAR or yearly WAR, a WAR average or what? Enders WAR this year is -0.1 so far. He’s been a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player for several years but specifically how does the machine use which WAR?
With the way our team has been playing and winning, it seems pretty evident to me that we don’t need Ender. With Pache in the background that seems even more evident. Surely there are other teams that would value him higher than we do at this point. Especially when we need teh bulllpen armz!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2019 11:33:19 GMT -5
Where did this trade site come from and who developed it
Also, values are constantly changing in the minds of GM's at the time and rest assured that GM's are always doing their homework on how rested and healthy a player is at that time -- we will never get to robo GM's
But I can see why a team would trade for a 5 mil a yr player - its easier to move and absorb - its hard as hell to move or trade for a 20 plus mil a yr guy
Imagine if Zack Grienke was making only 10-12 mil a yr he would be movable. His contract is impossible to move and there is the issue of age and time left -- not that I would not want him on my team.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2019 11:35:32 GMT -5
Could Ender and a combination of someone else be moved for prospects or a prospect who is a yr or two away
At this time we seem to be using Camargo more, Ender and Camargo with a Bryse Wilson should bring in something good - for one thing any team should be able to incorporate them in their payroll
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Post by keystone61 on Jul 4, 2019 10:05:48 GMT -5
Ender has a career wRC+ of 93 and can be counted on to have an OPS under .700 for the first 3-4 months of every season. His WAR is always based on his defense, every team in baseball is well aware of all that. He is one case where I don't think the numbers add up to what his value would seem to be if you go by numbers. At times numbers can be deceiving, we all know that, and I'm sure GMs in baseball are well aware of what Ender's real value actually is. I'm not really understanding what your point is. You're saying the numbers don't add up, but the do add up, you just don't understand how the numbers can be where they are. I find it funny that you use the term "real value", but it seems you're not really grasping what "real value" is. This is evident by the fact that you are placing offensive contribution above defensive contribution. In WAR, you don't get bonus points for being better offensively, and you don't get docked points for being "all glove, no bat". Value is value is value. You may not like that defense is valued equally to offense, but under WAR (Which is the main stat used to derive value) defense scores just like offense. What WAR shows is that if you're a GM and you want an defensively elite CFer, who's on a very affordable contract, and you don't care about offensive production, then Inciarte is a really good get. For years, teams have signed guys like this, and they still are. The Royals are paying Billy Hamilton, and his 61 wRC+, $5.25 million (With an additional $7.5 million, if they pick up his option) to be their starting CFer. There are teams that would trade for a guy like that. Of course, it'd be better if Inciarte was hitting, at least, league average, but his value isn't a fugazi because he doesn't. You really like telling people they don't understand, don't you? I understand what I want to understand, and any wonky calculation that values Ender at almost twice what it values Freddie is not worth understanding because quite frankly, it is bullshit. This game is still played on the field, and these days a lot of people over analyze the hell out of it just because the technology is available to do just that. I think a lot of these people like and understand computers a helluva lot more than they like and understand baseball. WAR is a perfect example in many cases. Jason Heyward is, or at least was, a "WAR darling" in spite of the fact that he's an average player. I'm sure he loves WAR though, since he is grossly overpaid because of it.
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