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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 18, 2019 13:56:00 GMT -5
Any pitcher batting 8th fans? Nyet!
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 18, 2019 13:57:30 GMT -5
Acuna JD Albies Freeman Flowers Neck Inciarte Swanson
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 18, 2019 14:00:03 GMT -5
Acuna JD Freeman Riley
Camargo Albies
McCann/Flowers Inciarte Peetcher
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Post by brady2705 on Feb 19, 2019 21:45:07 GMT -5
I am not Brian Snitker -- but if I were, I think the lineup dilemma is a simple one. Acuna is the closest thing we have to a Mike Trout type player ... Perhaps he's the closest thing in all of baseball. I suspect we'll find out in 2019. If he proves to be a reasonable facsimile, I think his pop is wasted in the leadoff role. I know he likes it, I know he's requested to stay there ... But dangit, I want him batting with ducks on the pond.
Similarly, I know Donaldson WANTS to bat second. I know he's publicly said he prefers batting 2nd over 4th. But dangit, he's not the dynamic 5-tool threat that Acuna is. I want my #2 hitting, Trout-imitation to have all 5 tools working, including the speed to swipe 30 bases. Donaldson just doesn't have that tool. We went into the offseason looking for a cleanup hitter. Donaldson is that guy. He's the protection Freeman deserves, and it's the best move for our team.
IF Albies has made the adjustments he needed to, and can hit with more patience, I think this is our best all-around lineup option:
1. 2B (S) Albies 2. LF (R) Acuna 3. 1B (L) Freeman 4. 3B (R) Donaldson 5. RF (L) Markakis 6. C_ (S) McCann / Flowers 7. CF (L) Inciarte 8. SS (R) Swanson
I view Inciarte and Albies as easily swappable depending on matchups and who's hot, etc.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Feb 21, 2019 19:42:23 GMT -5
I have a lot of fear about moving Acuna in the lineup after seeing how he flourished at the leadoff spot. I know you supposedly want this type hitter here and that type there, but maybe sometimes you should go against the mold when someone performs like he did there.
So let's say they drop him in the order and his performance falls off noticably... you sort of know we're Not going to get the performance from the leadoff spot with Inciarte or Albies like we did with the Acuña.
If this happens... how long do you keep forcing it before you make the switch back?
Do you think it will happen?
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Post by brady2705 on Feb 21, 2019 20:52:24 GMT -5
I have a lot of fear about moving Acuna in the lineup after seeing how he flourished at the leadoff spot. I know you supposedly want this type hitter here and that type there, but maybe sometimes you should go against the mold when someone performs like he did there. So let's say they drop him in the order and his performance falls off noticably... you sort of know we're Not going to get the performance from the leadoff spot with Inciarte or Albies like we did with the Acuña. If this happens... how long do you keep forcing it before you make the switch back? Do you think it will happen? I think there's *some* truth to the comfort factor, but I think correlation versus causation is important here. 1. Acuna's hot streak *correlated* with his move to the leadoff spot 2. His hot streak was *caused* by the mechanical adjustments he made Those mechanical adjustments would have played at any spot in the order, and as hot as Ender got in the second half, a more optimal lineup would have been Ender/Acuna/Freeman. I think Spring Training will be important. If both Albies and Inciarte look lost, we probably can't afford to bat them leadoff. But, if just one of them is hitting like we know they can (and equally important, we need both of them to display patience), I think they would be better suited at leadoff, thus giving Acuna more RBI opportunities in the 2-hole without sacrificing many at bats.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Feb 21, 2019 21:06:56 GMT -5
I understand correlation and causation completely.
Above and beyond just his first season here, he has been leadoff hitter quite a bit.
There are also plenty of examples of players performing differently in different spots in the order and not all spots see the same approach from pitchers.
So without thinking in absolutes about the true cause of the past results, I just wonder how long we keep forcing Ender or Ozzie if it's not working.... just because we are stuck on thinking that lineups just have to be constructed a certain way.
It will be an interesting experiment, but I don't want to get off to a bad start because Ender has his annual slow start, or Ozzie still has an OBP of .282 with a .226 average like he did in the second half of 2018.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 21, 2019 21:31:02 GMT -5
I understand correlation and causation completely. Above and beyond just his first season here, he has been leadoff hitter quite a bit. There are also plenty of examples of players performing differently in different spots in the order and not all spots see the same approach from pitchers.So without thinking in absolutes about the true cause of the past results, I just wonder how long we keep forcing Ender or Ozzie if it's not working.... just because we are stuck on thinking that lineups just have to be constructed a certain way. It will be an interesting experiment, but I don't want to get off to a bad start because Ender has his annual slow start, or Ozzie still has an OBP of .282 with a .226 average like he did in the second half of 2018. This!
Acuna for leadoff!
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Feb 21, 2019 22:20:35 GMT -5
Acuna Freeman Albies JD Markakis Flowers Inciarte Swanson
I’d love to see that lineup.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 21, 2019 22:58:49 GMT -5
Acuna Freeman Albies JD Markakis Flowers Inciarte Swanson I’d love to see that lineup. I could live with that.....for a few spring training games.
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Post by brady2705 on Feb 21, 2019 23:25:48 GMT -5
There are also plenty of examples of players performing differently in different spots in the order and not all spots see the same approach from pitchers. Please don't take any offense in my response, I truly mean this in good-spirited debate. I also don't mean this to you personally, just as a general response to those hesitant to move Acuna out of leadoff. I feel like your observation is one that's very hard to prove. On the one hand, if Acuna or Donaldson are such snowflakes that they can only perform when they hit in "their" spot of the order, I think they need to get over themselves. I'd rather know about that kind of prima-dona weakness before we shower Acuna with a $300M extension. Why, as Braves fans, are we fine expecting Camargo to play 6 positions with no regularity, yet it's a bridge too far to ask Ronald to bat 2nd instead of leadoff? Just pointing out the inconsistency in logic here. I'd expect ballplayers to be tough enough to handle a lineup adjustment. Additionally, I went back and looked at Acuna's 2017 game logs. I can't find a clean split that shows his complete lineup placement splits, so I spot-checked about a dozen box scores from all 3 levels of his 2017 season. My findings? Acuna hit 2nd or 3rd nearly the entire season. The only time I found him hitting leadoff was August/September in AAA, only after Albies got called up to MLB. Prior to that, it was Albies leading off with Acuna batting second, or other players leading off in AA or A+ with Acuna batting 2nd/3rd. So, yes I know Acuna said he likes leading off ... But it's not like that's all he knows. He's thrived hitting 2nd/3rd previously. That being said, I don't actually think Ronald cares all that much, and I'm sure he'll happily bat wherever Snitker places him in the lineup. If not, then I'd be concerned about the kids fortitude. The #2 spot gets ~14 fewer plate appearances per year than the leadoff man. However, over 150 games, if our leadoff man gets on base 33% of the time (conservative estimate), that's 50 plate appearances in the 1st inning that Ronald gets with a man on base that he wouldn't get if he batted leadoff. To me, losing 14 aggregate plate appearances in exchange for 50 plate appearances with a man on base is an easy trade for a player like Acuna, who is liable to pop 30+ HRs. We'll see what Snitker does. Despite Acuna dominating this post, I think Snitker's decision has more to do with Donaldson and AA demanding that JD bat 2nd, as opposed to optimizing Acuna in the 2-hole.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Feb 21, 2019 23:39:31 GMT -5
Acuna Freeman Albies JD Markakis Flowers Inciarte Swanson I’d love to see that lineup. I could live with that.....for a few spring training games. If Albies hits like he did in the first half, that's the best possible lineup, no doubt. IMO, the best hitters on the team are in this order... 1. Acuna 2. Freeman 3. JD 4. Albies Lineup optimization dictates that your best hitter should lead-off, your second best hitter should hit 2nd, your third best hitter should hit 4th (If the 2nd and 3rd best hitters are equal in talent, then the guy who hits more homers should hit 4th), and your fourth best hitter should hit 3rd. After that it doesn't matter too much, so might as well go lefty/righty the rest of the way.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 21, 2019 23:47:36 GMT -5
I could live with that.....for a few spring training games. If Albies hits like he did in the first half, that's the best possible lineup, no doubt. IMO, the best hitters on the team are in this order... 1. Acuna 2. Freeman 3. JD 4. Albies Lineup optimization dictates that your best hitter should lead-off, your second best hitter should hit 2nd, your third best hitter should hit 4th (If the 2nd and 3rd best hitters are equal in talent, then the guy who hits more homers should hit 4th), and your fourth best hitter should hit 3rd. After that it doesn't matter too much, so might as well go lefty/righty the rest of the way. It's not the first three in your order that I have a problem with, although I'd switch JD and Freeman despite the reasons you gave to hit Freddie 2nd and JD third.
And our 3rd and 4th best hitters last year were Camargo and Markakis, if we're willing to look at the whole season.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 22, 2019 0:46:05 GMT -5
And for the record, Culberson was our 5th best hitter last year.
Acuna 143 wRC+ Freddie 137 Camargo 115 Neck 114 Charlie 108 GAPOZ 100
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Feb 22, 2019 2:25:24 GMT -5
If Albies hits like he did in the first half, that's the best possible lineup, no doubt. IMO, the best hitters on the team are in this order... 1. Acuna 2. Freeman 3. JD 4. Albies Lineup optimization dictates that your best hitter should lead-off, your second best hitter should hit 2nd, your third best hitter should hit 4th (If the 2nd and 3rd best hitters are equal in talent, then the guy who hits more homers should hit 4th), and your fourth best hitter should hit 3rd. After that it doesn't matter too much, so might as well go lefty/righty the rest of the way. It's not the first three in your order that I have a problem with, although I'd switch JD and Freeman despite the reasons you gave to hit Freddie 2nd and JD third.
And our 3rd and 4th best hitters last year were Camargo and Markakis, if we're willing to look at the whole season.
Yes, but you don't make your lineup around a guy who isn't gonna play every day and an aging vet. You have to roll with the who's starting, and who has a better chance of being as good, or better, than they were last year. I put Albies 3rd because I truly believe he's a better hitter than Markakis, but even if I'm wrong and he isn't, then lineup optimization dictates this lineup... Acuna Freeman Markakis JD Flowers Albies Inciarte Swanson ...and when Camargo plays, you bat him 5th, and Flowers 6th. On the off chance that he steps in for JD, you gotta go... Acuna Freeman Camargo Albies Markakis Flowers Inciarte Swanson I constructed my lineup based on optimization, but Snitker doesn't play that way, so if we're being realistic, it's gonna be... Acuna JD Freeman Markakis Flowers Inciarte Albies Swanson When Camargo plays just put him 5th in the lineup, possibly 6th, but I'd put my money on 5th.
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