akod
Low A Farmhand
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Post by akod on Dec 8, 2018 12:32:28 GMT -5
2016 was quite an interesting draft. While trying to avoid the contracts Groome and Pint wanted, the Phillies took Moniak instead of Senzel. We took Anderson with the same strategy. That’s gotta sting...
Oh and the right answer to over drafting a guy to save money would have been Forest Whitley. We would look like some pretty stable geniuses if he were the pick.
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peteorr
Drafted
I am the best player in Phillies franchise history.
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Post by peteorr on Dec 8, 2018 14:52:37 GMT -5
So who are the Braves going after for the outfield? The Mariners I believe supposedly aren't going to trade Haniger. Who even knows with them? I'm seeing Puig's name being thrown around some? Perhaps the Braves are waiting for Brantley and McCutchen to relax their financial demands? I'm hearing Bumgarner as a trade candidate. There is only one year left on Bumgarner's contract and you probably wouldn't have to trade much.
I more or less want to air a concern of mine. Hopefully @nightman sees this. How does the value compare for the same player when they are 18 or 19 and in Single A compared to when they are in AAA 2-3 years later? It doesn't seem to me like their trade value changes all that much over that time frame.
I've seen some people on here say it was always understood that we would later trade our excess pitching prospects. As far as I'm concerned we have just assumed a ton of risk for little reward. Allard has had injury concerns, performance issues, and questions about his ability moving forward given his spin rate. You can't trade him when his value is depressed. Gohara was once a top 100 prospect. Then he had issues in 2018. You can't trade him now. Soroka should have some trade value. But you don't trade him because teams won't give you fair value after he was shut down during the season. As far as I'm concerned waiting two years only to trade players when they've lost their prospect status, had injuries, or whatever else that decreases their value flat out doesn't make much sense.
I said this in the past that I feel like trading Folty either this offseason or next should be strongly considered. It doesn't appear as though it is going to happen this offseason, especially with the Nationals signing Corbin and the Phillies rumored to sign Harper and/or Machado. As far as I'm concerned the Braves should be trying to maximize the value of their pitchers. Folty just had an all-star season. He's set to earn more in arbitration. Trade him. We used to talk about Fried's potential. Unless the Braves believe he is best suited for the bullpen, he should be in the rotation. Touki should probably have a rotation spot. Newcomb made strides in 2018. It would be great to cash in if he makes more improvements during the 2019 season.
I know I'm thinking long term. My strategy wouldn't necessarily net good results short term. Right now though the Braves might not like what is available on the free agent market. Trading prospects is a mistake. Trading low is a mistake. Our prospects need to either succeed or fail with the team. There is some failure rate for prospects between single A and AAA or MLB. It seems to me all we've done is assumed that failure rate and then we are going to trade the ones who have succeeded beyond that for relatively what their value was when the Braves acquired them to begin with? We should be smart about things in general. We especially need to be smart about things right now given that we have the international penalties and a terrible TV contract.
The Braves winning the division in 2018 changed things. The emergence of Acuna changed things. Now the Braves can't let off the gas with the Nationals, Phillies, and perhaps even the Mets trying to overtake the Braves. Part of me doesn't even necessarily want to compete with them (short term) because I don't think that's best for us long term. Choosing to limit Fried, Touki, Gohara, etc. is not in our long term interests. People have correctly noted that we don't have enough bullpen spots, AAA rotation spots, etc. for all of our prospects and that putting them in those roles is limiting. However, they draw the wrong conclusion. Trading those players is not the answer. Trading the pitchers who establish themselves is the answer (Folty, Gausman, Newcomb). I hope I've gotten my point across. I've kind of repeated myself in this post and I more or less said this prior so I'll stop here.
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akod
Low A Farmhand
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Post by akod on Dec 8, 2018 14:54:47 GMT -5
tomahawktake.com/2018/12/08/atlanta-braves-morning-chop-watch-out-for-zack-greinke-next-week/amp/4/I hardly ever find these articles worth a shite. But this fits my thought process. My line of thinking: -Take advantage of the remaining 3 years on Freeman’s deal, he’s a unicorn that has been worth every penny of an 8 year deal. - Unlike our unicorn, if we sign someone 5+ years we can expect, based on history, that the contract will hurt us in the future. Tying up funds that could make the team better or resign our young talent. It’s the great equilizer in baseball, and top teams have caught on. - The end game is Acuna, he may not be Trout but he may be generational or at least Freeman. I refuse to waste him the way we did Freeman, we must reload not rebuild. If the Blue Jays are not preparing in the same way for Vlad they are short sighted. - The farm will continue to be the key. I’ve made this point before but it’s the Betts, Ramirez, Lindor, Bregman, Baez, Arenado, Judge, etc that drives a team with insane surplus value. Selling current MLB players means less farm capital involved in a deal and more future reinforcements. Remember every prospect who comes up and provides value means another position we are saving money at. -That said money should be used for short term high paying deals, Donaldson is perfect. Or the money should be used in trades, taking on expensive players who have 3 years or less on a deal. Now to show just how crippling and ridiculous these huge long term deals are- just look at Greinke. He’s performing at the level hoped for when 32 mil a year was given to him. Yet to offload the contract they will have pay down the deal extensively or include another asset. I don’t necessarily believe the deal is anything they would accept but then again we see deals all the time like Segura where surplus value and whatnot be damned. If they went for such a deal we gain a TOR arm (he just barely turned 35 btw) who will regress but the goal is our young arms hopefully grow to take his place at a similar rate as he regresses over these 3 years. It’s a gamble but not one that holds us back during the arbitration years of Acuna. Not much needs to be said about Peralta in the deal, this is trading financial flexibility for a slightly less productive Haniger (who would cost Riley, Anderson, and Soroka). This is how you go about a fairly consistent reload. 23 mil off the books next year with Donaldson with the hope that Riley or Camargo forces our hand at taking over the position. We can fill another need or hopefully we can get serious about locking up Acuna through arbitration plus 2 years or so. In 3 years Greinke, Folty, and Freeman come off the books. The goal is to have viable replacements ready in the minors. That gives us choices on who and how we resign. Hopefully 3 years at 30 mil a pop for Freeman type deal. The key to this whole thought process is to remember we will have down years, we will have years we may not make the playoffs. However if we don’t overreact and sell off our prospects we can sustain overall success for 8 years is my hope. You thought I was done blabbing? Nope. I like to view what the Cubs did as an example. They did barely win a World Series but if they hadn’t then the Torres trade would go down as a swindling. The Jimenez trade will cost them dearly in the fight to remain a contender. Not to mention Cease looks like the best pitching prospect for the White Sox now. Soler isn’t great but yet another guy traded for a reliever rental. Point is the cubs could have used such opportunities as a Cano deal or Greinke to further their present while keeping the future bright. Or had they avoided long deals then Heyward wouldn’t be one of the worst contracts in baseball. Imagine 2018 lineup: Torres Baez Bryant Jimenez Contreras That’s one hell of a lineup hardly being paid and one very bright future. They could add Harper to that mix and be pumping out runs. Not to mention Cease could be starting this year as well. Hindsight is 20/20 but let’s learn from their mistakes. .
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akod
Low A Farmhand
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Likes: 146
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Post by akod on Dec 8, 2018 15:11:14 GMT -5
So who are the Braves going after for the outfield? The Mariners I believe supposedly aren't going to trade Haniger. Who even knows with them? I'm seeing Puig's name being thrown around some? Perhaps the Braves are waiting for Brantley and McCutchen to relax their financial demands? I'm hearing Bumgarner as a trade candidate. There is only one year left on Bumgarner's contract and you probably wouldn't have to trade much. I more or less want to air a concern of mine. Hopefully @nightman sees this. How does the value compare for the same player when they are 18 or 19 and in Single A compared to when they are in AAA 2-3 years later? It doesn't seem to me like their trade value changes all that much over that time frame. I've seen some people on here say it was always understood that we would later trade our excess pitching prospects. As far as I'm concerned we have just assumed a ton of risk for little reward. Allard has had injury concerns, performance issues, and questions about his ability moving forward given his spin rate. You can't trade him when his value is depressed. Gohara was once a top 100 prospect. Then he had issues in 2018. You can't trade him now. Soroka should have some trade value. But you don't trade him because teams won't give you fair value after he was shut down during the season. As far as I'm concerned waiting two years only to trade players when they've lost their prospect status, had injuries, or whatever else that decreases their value flat out doesn't make much sense. I said this in the past that I feel like trading Folty either this offseason or next should be strongly considered. It doesn't appear as though it is going to happen this offseason, especially with the Nationals signing Corbin and the Phillies rumored to sign Harper and/or Machado. As far as I'm concerned the Braves should be trying to maximize the value of their pitchers. Folty just had an all-star season. He's set to earn more in arbitration. Trade him. We used to talk about Fried's potential. Unless the Braves believe he is best suited for the bullpen, he should be in the rotation. Touki should probably have a rotation spot. Newcomb made strides in 2018. It would be great to cash in if he makes more improvements during the 2019 season. I know I'm thinking long term. My strategy wouldn't necessarily net good results short term. Right now though the Braves might not like what is available on the free agent market. Trading prospects is a mistake. Trading low is a mistake. Our prospects need to either succeed or fail with the team. There is some failure rate for prospects between single A and AAA or MLB. It seems to me all we've done is assumed that failure rate and then we are going to trade the ones who have succeeded beyond that for relatively what their value was when the Braves acquired them to begin with? We should be smart about things in general. We especially need to be smart about things right now given that we have the international penalties and a terrible TV contract. The Braves winning the division in 2018 changed things. The emergence of Acuna changed things. Now the Braves can't let off the gas with the Nationals, Phillies, and perhaps even the Mets trying to overtake the Braves. Part of me doesn't even necessarily want to compete with them (short term) because I don't think that's best for us long term. Choosing to limit Fried, Touki, Gohara, etc. is not in our long term interests. People have correctly noted that we don't have enough bullpen spots, AAA rotation spots, etc. for all of our prospects and that putting them in those roles is limiting. However, they draw the wrong conclusion. Trading those players is not the answer. Trading the pitchers who establish themselves is the answer (Folty, Gausman, Newcomb). I hope I've gotten my point across. I've kind of repeated myself in this post and I more or less said this prior so I'll stop here. Pete it looks like you are my spirit animal. I couldn’t agree more that we trade MLB players. I think Soroka can produce what Newk will this year. Folty wouldn’t surprise anyone if he regressed, and as I wrote previously we haggled over 100k in arbitration. He’s unlikely to resign for a decent deal. We have just so many talented young pitchers that it is worth the risk to get a truly high WAR player for Folty. If only Ender had a better year he would be a no brainer. However the timing may work perfectly. If Pache can show enough in 2 months or so and Ender overpeforms then sell him off at the his highest value. Pache immediately provides nearly the same defensive value with more potential with his bat. Controlled for 6 years and a slight monetary savings. The tricky part? In season success is tough to mess with. Let’s say we are in first even after all the moves that our division has made this would take some serious balls to make this call.
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Post by brady2705 on Dec 8, 2018 18:42:48 GMT -5
Would anybody be curious about Wil Myers? 28 years old next year, prime of his career. Uber talented, but never lived up to his full potential. Makes almost nothing in 2019, $5.5M I believe. Jumps to $22.5M for 2020-2022, so Braves could amortize that as $18.25M on a 4 year deal for a 28 year old corner OF. If the Padres would take Teheran and a lower prospect for him, it makes the salary all the more attractive. Thoughts?
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Post by Fumbduckery on Dec 8, 2018 19:15:38 GMT -5
Would anybody be curious about Wil Myers? 28 years old next year, prime of his career. Uber talented, but never lived up to his full potential. Makes almost nothing in 2019, $5.5M I believe. Jumps to $22.5M for 2020-2022, so Braves could amortize that as $18.25M on a 4 year deal for a 28 year old corner OF. If the Padres would take Teheran and a lower prospect for him, it makes the salary all the more attractive. Thoughts? I've always liked Myers, but he has fallen so woefully short of his perceived talent, I'd be scared to risk paying him that much down the road. He's only had two seasons he's been able to stay healthy, and still managed to have only a 0.9 WAR in one of those. He hit 30 HR's that year and still only had a 107 wRC+.
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akod
Low A Farmhand
Posts: 714
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Post by akod on Dec 8, 2018 19:30:27 GMT -5
Pass on Myers... I hate that name because we wanted him for Jar Jurjens. Should have taken Cain but we wanted Myers.
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Post by keystone61 on Dec 8, 2018 19:57:09 GMT -5
Would anybody be curious about Wil Myers? 28 years old next year, prime of his career. Uber talented, but never lived up to his full potential. Makes almost nothing in 2019, $5.5M I believe. Jumps to $22.5M for 2020-2022, so Braves could amortize that as $18.25M on a 4 year deal for a 28 year old corner OF. If the Padres would take Teheran and a lower prospect for him, it makes the salary all the more attractive. Thoughts? His work ethic is terrible. Getting the big payday ain't gonna help that.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Dec 8, 2018 21:14:09 GMT -5
I have seen Dexter Fowler mentioned in a couple different places as a possibility for us, and I really hate that idea a lot. The Cardinals are desperately trying to trade him, he's been a terrible disaster there. They have Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader they want to play full time now in the OF, and Fowler is the odd man out. They owe him something like $43M for the next three years, and they're supposedly ready to pay a huge bulk of that just to get him gone. Matheny made some blatant remarks to the press last year about his lack of hustle, and things were nothing but ugly after that. Just like they were ugly before that. But I don't care what the deal was, I simply don't want him, we should do better than that if we are going to bring in an OFer from outside.
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Post by brady2705 on Dec 9, 2018 8:51:54 GMT -5
I have seen Dexter Fowler mentioned in a couple different places as a possibility for us, and I really hate that idea a lot. The Cardinals are desperately trying to trade him, he's been a terrible disaster there. They have Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader they want to play full time now in the OF, and Fowler is the odd man out. They owe him something like $43M for the next three years, and they're supposedly ready to pay a huge bulk of that just to get him gone. Matheny made some blatant remarks to the press last year about his lack of hustle, and things were nothing but ugly after that. Just like they were ugly before that. But I don't care what the deal was, I simply don't want him, we should do better than that if we are going to bring in an OFer from outside. Could Fowler be a great "buy low" candidate? He's a local guy, so I imagine he'd enjoy playing at home. He also appears to have been a product of tremendously bad luck in 2018. His BB% and K%, as well as his soft/med/hard splits, were basically identical in 2018 to his career line. In over 5,000 career PAs, his BABIP is .330. Last year, it was only .210. The analytics should suggest he's a huge rebound candidate, and he's the type of outfielder that could easily bat leadoff for us. His OBP was always his best attribute, so he'd slot perfectly ahead of the big bats. What do you think? Duvall and O'Day for Fowler and salary relief in 2020 and 2021? Could still pursue another OF and make Fowler the 4th guy, but I think he could play well here.
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Post by PABraveFan on Dec 9, 2018 9:56:00 GMT -5
tomahawktake.com/2018/12/08/atlanta-braves-morning-chop-watch-out-for-zack-greinke-next-week/amp/4/I hardly ever find these articles worth a shite. But this fits my thought process. My line of thinking: -Take advantage of the remaining 3 years on Freeman’s deal, he’s a unicorn that has been worth every penny of an 8 year deal. - Unlike our unicorn, if we sign someone 5+ years we can expect, based on history, that the contract will hurt us in the future. Tying up funds that could make the team better or resign our young talent. It’s the great equilizer in baseball, and top teams have caught on. - The end game is Acuna, he may not be Trout but he may be generational or at least Freeman. I refuse to waste him the way we did Freeman, we must reload not rebuild. If the Blue Jays are not preparing in the same way for Vlad they are short sighted. - The farm will continue to be the key. I’ve made this point before but it’s the Betts, Ramirez, Lindor, Bregman, Baez, Arenado, Judge, etc that drives a team with insane surplus value. Selling current MLB players means less farm capital involved in a deal and more future reinforcements. Remember every prospect who comes up and provides value means another position we are saving money at. -That said money should be used for short term high paying deals, Donaldson is perfect. Or the money should be used in trades, taking on expensive players who have 3 years or less on a deal. Now to show just how crippling and ridiculous these huge long term deals are- just look at Greinke. He’s performing at the level hoped for when 32 mil a year was given to him. Yet to offload the contract they will have pay down the deal extensively or include another asset. I don’t necessarily believe the deal is anything they would accept but then again we see deals all the time like Segura where surplus value and whatnot be damned. If they went for such a deal we gain a TOR arm (he just barely turned 35 btw) who will regress but the goal is our young arms hopefully grow to take his place at a similar rate as he regresses over these 3 years. It’s a gamble but not one that holds us back during the arbitration years of Acuna. Not much needs to be said about Peralta in the deal, this is trading financial flexibility for a slightly less productive Haniger (who would cost Riley, Anderson, and Soroka). This is how you go about a fairly consistent reload. 23 mil off the books next year with Donaldson with the hope that Riley or Camargo forces our hand at taking over the position. We can fill another need or hopefully we can get serious about locking up Acuna through arbitration plus 2 years or so. In 3 years Greinke, Folty, and Freeman come off the books. The goal is to have viable replacements ready in the minors. That gives us choices on who and how we resign. Hopefully 3 years at 30 mil a pop for Freeman type deal. The key to this whole thought process is to remember we will have down years, we will have years we may not make the playoffs. However if we don’t overreact and sell off our prospects we can sustain overall success for 8 years is my hope. You thought I was done blabbing? Nope. I like to view what the Cubs did as an example. They did barely win a World Series but if they hadn’t then the Torres trade would go down as a swindling. The Jimenez trade will cost them dearly in the fight to remain a contender. Not to mention Cease looks like the best pitching prospect for the White Sox now. Soler isn’t great but yet another guy traded for a reliever rental. Point is the cubs could have used such opportunities as a Cano deal or Greinke to further their present while keeping the future bright. Or had they avoided long deals then Heyward wouldn’t be one of the worst contracts in baseball. Imagine 2018 lineup: Torres Baez Bryant Jimenez Contreras That’s one hell of a lineup hardly being paid and one very bright future. They could add Harper to that mix and be pumping out runs. Not to mention Cease could be starting this year as well. Hindsight is 20/20 but let’s learn from their mistakes. . Greinke and Peralta for those 3 plus several minor leaguers...I'm all in! Notice it says Duvall is due $3 in arbitration. That's about right with the way he played for the Braves last year!
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peteorr
Drafted
I am the best player in Phillies franchise history.
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Post by peteorr on Dec 9, 2018 10:30:00 GMT -5
I'm down to trade for Fowler depending on what the Cardinals would ask for and how much of his salary they would pay. I don't know which other outfielders are available via trade. Most other outfielders would cost the Braves more in terms of prospects and/or dollars. Fangraphs has estimated both Brantley and McCutchen will get 3/45 contracts. If I'm not mistaken I remember reading a rumor that said Brantley is currently asking for 3/60. I also heard the Braves are wary of Brantley because he has been hurt more than other players. If the Braves aren't excited about Brantley to begin with, they probably don't want to take the time to wait and see if his asking price will go down.
As I said yesterday, I'm for keeping our prospects. Trading for Fowler accomplishes that.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Dec 9, 2018 10:50:26 GMT -5
The Braves aren’t gonna trade for dexter Fowler and if they did I wouldn’t be happy about it.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Dec 9, 2018 10:52:19 GMT -5
I have seen Dexter Fowler mentioned in a couple different places as a possibility for us, and I really hate that idea a lot. The Cardinals are desperately trying to trade him, he's been a terrible disaster there. They have Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader they want to play full time now in the OF, and Fowler is the odd man out. They owe him something like $43M for the next three years, and they're supposedly ready to pay a huge bulk of that just to get him gone. Matheny made some blatant remarks to the press last year about his lack of hustle, and things were nothing but ugly after that. Just like they were ugly before that. But I don't care what the deal was, I simply don't want him, we should do better than that if we are going to bring in an OFer from outside. Could Fowler be a great "buy low" candidate? He's a local guy, so I imagine he'd enjoy playing at home. He also appears to have been a product of tremendously bad luck in 2018. His BB% and K%, as well as his soft/med/hard splits, were basically identical in 2018 to his career line. In over 5,000 career PAs, his BABIP is .330. Last year, it was only .210. The analytics should suggest he's a huge rebound candidate, and he's the type of outfielder that could easily bat leadoff for us. His OBP was always his best attribute, so he'd slot perfectly ahead of the big bats. What do you think? Duvall and O'Day for Fowler and salary relief in 2020 and 2021? Could still pursue another OF and make Fowler the 4th guy, but I think he could play well here. If we could get Fowler dirt cheap and have him lined up as a 4th OFer I wouldn’t be totally opposed. It sounds like the Cardinals desperately want him to just go away and they’re willing to do about anything to make it happen. One of those sunken cost situations they’ve accepted. They’re going to have to pay him whether he’s in St. Louis or not, and they highly prefer not.
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Post by keystone61 on Dec 9, 2018 10:56:26 GMT -5
The Braves aren’t gonna trade for dexter Fowler and if they did I wouldn’t be happy about it. I wouldn't mind having him as a 4th outfielder. That would be about it, and that makes no sense at this point.
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