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Post by Fumbduckery on Dec 30, 2019 12:51:49 GMT -5
Good point, always have to consider that with these Colorado players......Story's road stats are not spectacular.
.250/.313/.443/.756 for his career with a 99 wRC+
Ummm, that's very Swanson-like, no? Dansby’s career is .245/.318/.385/.703 with an 81 wRC+. Story has just hit for more power on the road than Dansby has everywhere. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Dec 30, 2019 12:54:44 GMT -5
If the Braves are really set on Donaldson, what about some creativity? Since we have Freeman to sign in a few years, how about 4/$110 with $30M deferred at $10M/yr for three years after the contract. This only hits at $20M/yr for 4 years and $10M/yr for the three years after that. Allows more flexibility now and the $10M owed later will be less of a factor after year 4. Just a thought. I don’t like spending that much on a big risk no matter how we spread it out. I’ve been running a business for over 20 years and things like this end up biting you. If it was a younger player that would be different. And that article said the thinking now is that 4 years $112M isn’t even enough. Come on now, AA, let it go. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Dec 30, 2019 13:42:56 GMT -5
But I'm pretty sure this is going to end with us getting JD no matter what the cost is. I understand the side of it that it has the potential to help us a lot to be serious World Series contenders for at least the next two years. It's just too much of a risk in my opinion. Always have to weigh risk versus reward.
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Post by wncbravesfan on Dec 30, 2019 22:19:19 GMT -5
David O'Brien @dobrienatl
Bold predictions: JD returns, RAJ flirts again with 40-40, #Braves lose division but win a playoff series for first time since ‘01 — after trading top prospects for rotation help
DOB also posted on The Athletic a long article on the above.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Dec 30, 2019 23:29:05 GMT -5
Random thoughts..
I'm not sure it's automatic this ends with us getting JD no matter what the cost.
I don't think Camargo's WAR matters a hill of beans to AA or the Braves. I think they firmly believe that the every at bat threat of big power from the 3rd base position is what they want and Camargo doesn't offer that threat. He may hit 26 HR's but pitchers are not going to pitch to Freddie being scared of the power that follows him. Plus there seems to be doubt from them that Johan can repeat 2018 in terms of power. He only hit 4HR's in 2017 in roughly half the at bats in which he hit 19 in during 2018. No need to try and convince me of that being wrong.. I just think it's obvious that's what they think.
Throwing Dansby again into the conversation is pointless. Camargo is never going to win the SS derby and I think they are sold on Dansby's defense, speed, and hustle at THAT position.
"but Dansby....." just needs to disappear from the lexicon.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Dec 31, 2019 0:23:32 GMT -5
I have not advocated for Camargo to play SS since he did this season and played so poorly there. Even though that's the position he played in the minor leagues, he struggled so much there in 2019 I don't see any reason to try that again. In his defense he had never played SS in the big leagues, so it was a tough situation. He had a lot of pressure on him, I'm sure he felt like he had to be great when he finally got a chance to play and that thinking probably worked against him. Anyhow, at this point, I wasn't bringing Dansby into a Camargo discussion at all. I was bringing Dansby up in his own context. I just think it's odd that we're so hell bent on upgrading at 3B and so content with our SS, when we really need more from our SS position.
But I do also think our organization pays absolutely no attention to any kind stats at all. I agree that they think a power bat behind Freddie is a fear factor.
As for Dansby, just looking at him alone and in no other context, I'm not sure why he has to disappear from any honest objective scrutiny just because the organization is so sold on him.
For all the hubbub from our announcers about how great Dansby was this year, he still only had a 92 wRC+, an UZR/150 of -5.9 and a 1.5 WAR (that's Fangraphs being nice, baseball reference had him at 0.9).
His WAR for 2019 was 21st among all SS, his wRC+ was 17th among all SS, and that UZR/150 ranked 18th among all SS.
During his 3 years in the big leagues, his 79 wRC+ ranks 31st of 34 qualifying SS, his accumulated WAR of 3.1 ranks 29th of 34 qualifiers, and his UZR/150 of -1.3 ranks 15th overall.
So just looking at him and not bringing up any other names of any other players on our team, I'm curious why we should be so willing to find this acceptable. I fully realize our management team isn't aware of any of this, but it doesn't mean I'm not going to delve into things like this when my eye test is telling me that a guy isn't cutting it. And when I look at these numbers it strikes me funny that we should be excited about his speed and his hustle that we would ignore a bunch of really damning numbers. And his defense did take big step backwards this year, that -5.9 UZR/150 was the worst of his career.
But he's a good looking kid, has nice hair, he's a local kid, a lot of young kids wear his jersey, and he hustles and runs fast, so apparently that's all it takes to be one of those baseball player guys who has a full time starting job in the big leagues, no matter what his actual performance level is.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Dec 31, 2019 2:20:27 GMT -5
David O'Brien @dobrienatl Bold predictions: JD returns, RAJ flirts again with 40-40, #Braves lose division but win a playoff series for first time since ‘01 — after trading top prospects for rotation help DOB also posted on The Athletic a long article on the above.Braves trade top prospects for rotation help? That player better be Jacob deGrom level good. |
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Post by keystone61 on Dec 31, 2019 10:10:30 GMT -5
I have not advocated for Camargo to play SS since he did this season and played so poorly there. Even though that's the position he played in the minor leagues, he struggled so much there in 2019 I don't see any reason to try that again. In his defense he had never played SS in the big leagues, so it was a tough situation. He had a lot of pressure on him, I'm sure he felt like he had to be great when he finally got a chance to play and that thinking probably worked against him. Anyhow, at this point, I wasn't bringing Dansby into a Camargo discussion at all. I was bringing Dansby up in his own context. I just think it's odd that we're so hell bent on upgrading at 3B and so content with our SS, when we really need more from our SS position.
But I do also think our organization pays absolutely no attention to any kind stats at all. I agree that they think a power bat behind Freddie is a fear factor.
As for Dansby, just looking at him alone and in no other context, I'm not sure why he has to disappear from any honest objective scrutiny just because the organization is so sold on him.
For all the hubbub from our announcers about how great Dansby was this year, he still only had a 92 wRC+, an UZR/150 of -5.9 and a 1.5 WAR (that's Fangraphs being nice, baseball reference had him at 0.9).
His WAR for 2019 was 21st among all SS, his wRC+ was 17th among all SS, and that UZR/150 ranked 18th among all SS.
During his 3 years in the big leagues, his 79 wRC+ ranks 31st of 34 qualifying SS, his accumulated WAR of 3.1 ranks 29th of 34 qualifiers, and his UZR/150 of -1.3 ranks 15th overall.
So just looking at him and not bringing up any other names of any other players on our team, I'm curious why we should be so willing to find this acceptable. I fully realize our management team isn't aware of any of this, but it doesn't mean I'm not going to delve into things like this when my eye test is telling me that a guy isn't cutting it. And when I look at these numbers it strikes me funny that we should be excited about his speed and his hustle that we would ignore a bunch of really damning numbers. And his defense did take big step backwards this year, that -5.9 UZR/150 was the worst of his career.
But he's a good looking kid, has nice hair, he's a local kid, a lot of young kids wear his jersey, and he hustles and runs fast, so apparently that's all it takes to be one of those baseball player guys who has a full time starting job in the big leagues, no matter what his actual performance level is.
I'm not saying that Camargo needs to be the bat behind Freeman. In fact, that's probably not a good idea. Him playing SS isn't a good idea, either, but I will say this. I've never seen a player more poorly used and more underappreciated after what was a very good 2018 (and 2017 for that matter) than Johan Camargo. I said it before and I'll say it again. We should have let Neck go last year and plugged Camargo into an outfield spot. You'll never convince me that this wouldn't have been a good move. His arm definitely plays in either of the OF spots, and anyone who flashed the leather he did at 3B in 2018 can most likely make a smooth transition to the outfield. Don't even try to tell me that he couldn't have topped Neck's outstanding 0.8 WAR season. The incomprehensible organizational love for Neck, Dansby, and Flowers (I would have kept Cervelli and let him walk, too) just blows my friggin' mind. It's like they're saying "we wanna be good, but only if these 3 guys are part of it". Unbelievable.......... |
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Post by Drkirby on Dec 31, 2019 10:34:35 GMT -5
Yeah the love for nick and dansby is just mind boggling.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Dec 31, 2019 12:39:13 GMT -5
I have not advocated for Camargo to play SS since he did this season and played so poorly there. Even though that's the position he played in the minor leagues, he struggled so much there in 2019 I don't see any reason to try that again. In his defense he had never played SS in the big leagues, so it was a tough situation. He had a lot of pressure on him, I'm sure he felt like he had to be great when he finally got a chance to play and that thinking probably worked against him. Anyhow, at this point, I wasn't bringing Dansby into a Camargo discussion at all. I was bringing Dansby up in his own context. I just think it's odd that we're so hell bent on upgrading at 3B and so content with our SS, when we really need more from our SS position.
But I do also think our organization pays absolutely no attention to any kind stats at all. I agree that they think a power bat behind Freddie is a fear factor.
As for Dansby, just looking at him alone and in no other context, I'm not sure why he has to disappear from any honest objective scrutiny just because the organization is so sold on him.
For all the hubbub from our announcers about how great Dansby was this year, he still only had a 92 wRC+, an UZR/150 of -5.9 and a 1.5 WAR (that's Fangraphs being nice, baseball reference had him at 0.9).
His WAR for 2019 was 21st among all SS, his wRC+ was 17th among all SS, and that UZR/150 ranked 18th among all SS.
During his 3 years in the big leagues, his 79 wRC+ ranks 31st of 34 qualifying SS, his accumulated WAR of 3.1 ranks 29th of 34 qualifiers, and his UZR/150 of -1.3 ranks 15th overall.
So just looking at him and not bringing up any other names of any other players on our team, I'm curious why we should be so willing to find this acceptable. I fully realize our management team isn't aware of any of this, but it doesn't mean I'm not going to delve into things like this when my eye test is telling me that a guy isn't cutting it. And when I look at these numbers it strikes me funny that we should be excited about his speed and his hustle that we would ignore a bunch of really damning numbers. And his defense did take big step backwards this year, that -5.9 UZR/150 was the worst of his career.
But he's a good looking kid, has nice hair, he's a local kid, a lot of young kids wear his jersey, and he hustles and runs fast, so apparently that's all it takes to be one of those baseball player guys who has a full time starting job in the big leagues, no matter what his actual performance level is.
I'm not saying that Camargo needs to be the bat behind Freeman. In fact, that's probably not a good idea. Him playing SS isn't a good idea, either, but I will say this. I've never seen a player more poorly used and more underappreciated after what was a very good 2018 (and 2017 for that matter) than Johan Camargo. I said it before and I'll say it again. We should have let Neck go last year and plugged Camargo into an outfield spot. You'll never convince me that this wouldn't have been a good move. His arm definitely plays in either of the OF spots, and anyone who flashed the leather he did at 3B in 2018 can most likely make a smooth transition to the outfield. Don't even try to tell me that he couldn't have topped Neck's outstanding 0.8 WAR season. The incomprehensible organizational love for Neck, Dansby, and Flowers (I would have kept Cervelli and let him walk, too) just blows my friggin' mind. It's like they're saying "we wanna be good, but only if these 3 guys are part of it". Unbelievable.......... I completely agree. The season Johan had was a lot better than it looked to the eye when you dig into the numbers. For instance he had an 8.9 UZR/150. JD had a 2.1 UZR/150 this year and people raved about his defense. Camargo was the 6th best third baseman in baseball in 2018 and got kicked to the curb. I agree he would have been fine if RF and he sure has the arm for it. What chaps my ass the most about it was that we clearly had no plan for him and dont now, but at the same time failed to trade him when his value was the highest. What a crime to misuse an asset like that. |
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Post by keystone61 on Dec 31, 2019 21:58:24 GMT -5
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Dec 31, 2019 23:23:01 GMT -5
Dansby needs to disappear from the conversation when talking about 3rd base.
It starts as JD vs Camargo and within 2 posts it leads to "yeah, but Dansby...."
Talking about Dansby is fine, but it's silly to invoke the organizations acceptance of Dansby's performance when trying to discern why they don't seem to find Camargo's performance acceptable.
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Cheaters2
Low A Farmhand
Is really CheatersRus
All Seeing
Posts: 762
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Post by Cheaters2 on Jan 1, 2020 0:33:10 GMT -5
Dansby needs to disappear from the conversation when talking about 3rd base. It starts as JD vs Camargo and within 2 posts it leads to "yeah, but Dansby...." Talking about Dansby is fine, but it's silly to invoke the organizations acceptance of Dansby's performance when trying to discern why they don't seem to find Camargo's performance acceptable. the organization looks at Swanson the same way most guys on this board see Wright.. He is a 1st rounder who has the skill set to be good .. But neither guy gets it done. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 1, 2020 1:08:28 GMT -5
Dansby needs to disappear from the conversation when talking about 3rd base. Why is it not a legitimate point to ask why, discuss and analyze the organization being so desperate to upgrade at 3B and yet so satisfied with SS? |
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Post by keystone61 on Jan 1, 2020 7:39:19 GMT -5
Dansby needs to disappear from the conversation when talking about 3rd base. It starts as JD vs Camargo and within 2 posts it leads to "yeah, but Dansby...." Talking about Dansby is fine, but it's silly to invoke the organizations acceptance of Dansby's performance when trying to discern why they don't seem to find Camargo's performance acceptable. the organization looks at Swanson the same way most guys on this board see Wright.. He is a 1st rounder who has the skill set to be good .. But neither guy gets it done. Big difference between Wright and Dansby. Dansby has been up here for 3 full seasons and been allowed more leeway than he deserves, while Wright hasn't had that opportunity. Wright may wind up just as disappointing, but we're not there yet. |
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