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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 3, 2019 22:06:02 GMT -5
I agree with you, but you're talking about Sargent Saggysack's two favorite boys there, never gonna happen!
I bet Chattahoochee can give you as much at catcher as Flowers. It's a gamble worth taking. IMO We can get rid of Flowers and and Markakis when we pry them from Saggysack's cold dead fingers. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 3, 2019 22:10:19 GMT -5
The Braves REALLY need to move on from Markakis and Flowers. Wilson and Waters for Marte and sign Grandal or Moustakas. Then go for a starter via trade, depending on who you sign. Waters at 20 years old made it to AAA with a very strong bat, speed, and defense. Literally the type talent our GM covets. Let’s stop the Soroka and Riley for Realmuto this offseason before it starts. Markakis is a perfectly suitable outfielder to rotate in. But I agree with you guys that Snit would start him 130 plus games so it might just be better to let him walk. Nick was a 0.4 WAR player last year, he's averaged a 1.3 WAR for the last seven seasons. And that's with 700 PA's per year. It's not that he's a bad player, he's just the epitome of an average player and we can just do so much better so easily. Hell, Joyce was a 1.2 WAR last year with only 238 PA's, he's a huge upgrade over Nick on both sides of the ball. If we used Nick off the bench and he got 200-230 PA's, I could live with that, but I can't imagine any way that would happen. |
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 3, 2019 22:25:44 GMT -5
I've tried to figure out what I would do this offseason if I were the Braves GM. I've done my best to work within payroll parameters. Arbitration estimates are from MLBTR. Set contract numbers are via Spotrac. I don't know what the MLB minimum in 2020 is or if it has even been determined yet.
Shogo Akiyama $10M no idea what his contract demands are, if he is willing to play LF, as far as I'm concerned he is a better option than Castellanos, Dickerson, Puig, and all others based on potential value.
Mike Moustakas $13M solid player and splits Donaldson's 2019 salary between Akiyama and Moustakas. Donaldson would get a raise and a Akiyama/Moustakas combo is better than Donaldson + Markakis or an OF platoon
Grant Dayton $.8M cheap and can be stashed in AAA as depth
Matt Joyce $2.5M my own estimate required to keep Joyce
Adam Duvall $0 very likely DFA, of course trade if any team is willing to give up anything plus pay his whole salary
Freddie Freeman $22M
Mark Melancon $14M I did not like this trade when it was made because I learned the Braves would pay his entire salary. He has an elite reliever's salary and if the payroll is $140M he takes up 10% of it.
Julio Teheran $1M Buyout. If the Braves weren't willing to have him on the NLDS roster it isn't worth paying him in 2020.
Ender Inciarte $7M Keep Ender. I've been vocal about trading Ender in the past but his value is low at the moment and potential free agent replacement options are slim.
Billy Hamilton $2M $1M buyout + $1M new contract. This is a placeholder since all three starting outfielders could play CF. The Braves could get a better hitter here. Hamilton's speed/defense not needed.
Ronald Acuna $1M Spotrac says this is his salary for the season
Ozzie Albies $1M same story as Acuna
Tyler Flowers $6M The catching platoons have worked in the past and Fangraphs likes him defensively and in terms of WAR value given his playing time
Nick Markakis $2M Buyout. Markakis shouldn't have been on the team in 2019. Might as well get rid of him now instead of doubling down on past mistakes.
Max Fried $.58M This is my own estimate as I don't know the set amount of league minimum contracts
Sean Newcomb $.58M Same as above
Mike Soroka $.58M
Johan Camargo $1.6M MLBTR salary estimate
Austin Riley $.58M plays at AAA to start with
Wright,Touki etc $.58M needed initially as either 5th starter or last bullpen arm
Luke Jackson $1.9M MLBTR salary estimate
Dansby Swanson $3.3M MLBTR salary estimate
Charlie Culberson $1.8M arbitration estimate
Mike Folty $0 DFA or trade
Shane Greene $6.5M MLBTR arbitration estimate
F. Cervelli $5M My free agent estimate
Michael Pineda $5M My free agent estimate. He is suspended for the first 39 games of the season
Rick Porcello $8M My free agent estimate
Wade Miley $10M My free agent estimate
If my calculations are correct this totals $128.3M. The Braves would still need to sign three relievers. Assuming the starting payroll is $140M which would be higher than the closing day payroll that was supposedly over budget, this wouldn't leave much money for the three reliever spots. Luckily as far as other costs the Braves would have Pache, Waters, Riley, Minter, and Dayton at AAA so I would imagine they'd need minimal additions midseason. Another note is that I only put $ per year as I don't know what duration players would want. I think this would be a better team than 2019 although this team would thrive on not having outright weaknesses while the only real strength would likely be the bullpen if the last three relievers were good. I did not offer any trades because who is available and for what costs is not known. Plus the players who the Braves have who are valuable are not likely to be traded. This wouldn't be a team built for the postseason, although I think it would be good enough to beat the 2019 Cardinals. When it comes down to it I think that while the rebuild is over Liberty Media doesn't want to build a World Series winning team until a starting pitcher makes a significant leap along with a few position prospects. Until then they will try to win the division or at least make the playoffs and then say losing in the playoffs is a product of a lack of luck. One last note is that Akiyama and Moustakas will require multiyear deals. This essentially blocks Riley. It would also mean that while the Braves can easily discard Ender when needed, if both Pache and Waters are ready in a year the Braves would have a surplus and need to trade one of Pache/Waters/Akiyama. I might have missed a notable name or two from the available relievers. This is the list of relievers the Braves would need to sign three of: Héctor Rondón, Will Smith, Pedro Strop, Nate Jones, Sergio Romo, Craig Stammen, Sean Doolittle, Tyler Clippard.
I have a concern that is both short and long term. If Liberty Media behave consistently the way they have been then payroll increases will only follow if the team improves. Liberty Media wasn't willing to be one step ahead in 2018 when fans knew that while the rebuild was supposed to end in 2019 that it could very well end in 2018 and it did. Liberty Media lucked out that the Braves won the division in 2018 despite them not investing in the team. Following the same theme: spending is not a given. A year ago the contracts of McCarthy, Kazmir, and Adrian Gonzalez lapsed, Markakis as well. I believe the Dodgers sent over the difference between Matt Kemp's two years and the salaries of McCarthy, Kazmir, and Gonzalez. Kemp was paid 20 something million a season add that to the $11M average Markakis was earning and that was nearly $60M of salary cleared. Then the Braves only spent about $30M between Donaldson/McCann/Markakis and started the season with a lower payroll than they'd closed the previous season with. How much money will the Braves spend this offseason? Will they slow roll again and spend midseason? Anyway, not feeling fantastic about things moving forward because Liberty Media has to keep increasing payroll just to keep up with the rising cost of the core players who have set salary increases due to extensions and players earning raises via arbitration.
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 3, 2019 23:17:43 GMT -5
That's a lot to digest, but you did invalidate Fangraphs for me when you mentioned Flowers'defense being valued. That's a joke. His defense is horrible.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Nov 3, 2019 23:24:41 GMT -5
If I could be assured that we would make the additions you mentioned, I wouldn't be opposed to what you say. The problem is we wouldn't. We would nail the not signing JD part would probably screw the pooch on the other moves. I am also pretty sure we wouldn't pencil in Camargo for that 3.0 WAR with Riley on the team. I'm pretty sure Snit would ride Riley even to a .3 WAR thinking he would come around. So Riley would have to come through as Camargo would be lucky to get back to 225 AB's. Some other things.... Neck here scares me as well. Neck being available (with Camargo hanging around as well) would be the exact reason we choose not to go get a Castellanos with JD's money. Snit would claim he could platoon Neck and Johan in right and we could save that money.... then Neck would play 90% of the time. I also throw up a little in my mouth every time I see a projected 2020 lineup and "Flowers" name. Sorry... but I do. Couldn't agree with you more on Flowers. It really pained me to watch Suzuki play well for the Nats all year knowing that the Braves opt to go with the "pitch framer" who led the league in passed balls. I say that have to find a starting catcher and right fielder. Nick has to go to the bench. I could live with a Camargo/Riley platoon at 3rd if they find some pop at C and RF. A lot could depend on how Pache and Waters come along during the off-season. Make sure you mention led the league in passed balls despite playing in significantly less games than the next several guys behind him on the list. |
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Nov 3, 2019 23:38:11 GMT -5
That's a lot to digest, but you did invalidate Fangraphs for me when you mentioned Flowers'defense being valued. That's a joke. His defense is horrible. yeah.. that was tl;dr needs to be broken up over a long discussion and I'm happy to tackle it that way. For the current context of talking about Flowers, I skipped to the sentence about Flowers and read that.... ... and that is why I have decided that Fangraphs defensive metrics on catchers defense is a joke. I watched almost every minute of the Braves this season and saw that buffoon suck at actually catching balls all season. Defensive metrics have always been a bit sketchy, but how fangraphs rated catchers takes the cake. Back during the debates about Haywood's values, you could argue the overall value of his defense, but you could never deny his actual defensive prowess. It was visible.. he made great plays. Flowers however... I've pointed it out for years.. poor positioning on plays at the plate... an inability to throw runners out... AND HE LED THE THE LEAGUE ON NOT CATCHING PITCHED BALLS despite having had to catch much less of them than the guys behind him on the list. He sucks... period, end of story. If he can't be a really solid player on offense, he is a complete liability. |
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 4, 2019 11:45:35 GMT -5
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 4, 2019 12:36:38 GMT -5
Yyyyyyyyyyyyup. Nick up next. Count on it. Starting RFer next year. We’ll sign some below average backup catcher and Flowers will get 400 ABs next year. Snitker’s baseball player guys. |
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 4, 2019 12:41:31 GMT -5
Yyyyyyyyyyyyup. Nick up next. Count on it. Starting RFer next year. We’ll sign some below average backup catcher and Flowers will get 400 ABs next year. Snitker’s baseball player guys. Frustrates the hell outta me.......... |
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Post by wncbravesfan on Nov 4, 2019 12:59:48 GMT -5
David O'Brien (@dobrienatl)
For those asking, #Braves on Monday will, A. pick up or decline options on Teheran, Flowers & Markakis; B. surely make qualifying offer ($17.8M) to JD, to assure at least draft pick if they don't re-sign him; C. they can begin to talk to or sign any free agents from other teams
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 4, 2019 14:46:58 GMT -5
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 4, 2019 14:51:29 GMT -5
Here's what's happening. Braves got by on the cheap this past year for the most part and managed to get away with it. They won't be so lucky next season. They're probably gonna take a step backwards. Keeping Nick and Flowers is NOT how you move toward a World Series. IMO
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Post by mauibravefan on Nov 4, 2019 15:15:55 GMT -5
"Atlanta has right-handed-hitting Adam Duvall on hand to serve as a platoon partner for Markakis, should they choose to go that route. Markakis, 36 later this month, has been a fixture in the Braves’ lineup for the past five seasons but saw a reduced role in 2019. That’s likely to be the case in 2020, particularly given the veteran’s recent struggles against left-handed pitching." That P word again.
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turnerfield
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Post by turnerfield on Nov 4, 2019 15:33:25 GMT -5
So we signed Tyler and Nick again. I have a feeling they're going to be starting more games than we would like. Joy. It's so early though I'll wait for more to happen before BI7CHIN about it.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 4, 2019 15:33:47 GMT -5
"Atlanta has right-handed-hitting Adam Duvall on hand to serve as a platoon partner for Markakis, should they choose to go that route. Markakis, 36 later this month, has been a fixture in the Braves’ lineup for the past five seasons but saw a reduced role in 2019. That’s likely to be the case in 2020, particularly given the veteran’s recent struggles against left-handed pitching." That P word again. lol, reduced role my ass. He had fewer ABs only because of the broken wrist. He started 95% of the games when didn't have the injury. I hate dishonesty like that.
Our organization is really pissing me off, starting with taking away the chop for game 5, not retaliating when the Cardinals hit Acuna, and then these two signings.
The topper is going to be the day they announce the chop is gone.
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