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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 30, 2019 21:32:49 GMT -5
Oh, so performance means nothing, obviously. Cool. A smart GM would laugh his ass off when you slid your surplus value table in front of him for Touki. He's done nothing and may never do anything. Marte is a proven player. Big difference. When you throw in how badly they got burned by Tampa on the Archer deal, I doubt their eagerness to take that much risk. Someone else will offer more, too, IMO. Went ahead and did the math. Marte has two years of control at $24 million total in contract obligations. He's a 3.0 WAR player. If WAR is $8 million, that's $48 million worth of value. You subtract how much money he's making and his surplus value is $24 million. That's not really a lot. The Pirates, if they were looking at Braves prospects, aren't gonna get any of the Braves prospects ranked in the top-100. Wilson has lost some luster, he's not in the top-100 anymore, but he's a 50FV pitcher, and according to fangraphs, that's worth $21 million. Touki is still considered a 50FV prospect, as well. Even if you say, "Hey, that's too high for those two guys." Okay, drop it by half. If that's a more accurate representation then the Braves could trade Wilson and Touki for Marte. If those numbers are accurate, then you're looking at Wilson OR Touki plus a guy like Patrick Weigel, if they traded Wilson, or CJ Alexander, if they traded Touki. Basically, you're overrating veteran value and underrating prospect value. Not trying to be a dick, I'm just pointing out the numbers. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 30, 2019 21:35:33 GMT -5
Ding ding ding we have a winner. Though AA may want to completely focus on pitching especially after the playoffs. Not to mention JD was pretty useless for half a season and our offense was still quite impressive. I think a lot of people overlook that--It was something like June 11th when Musgrove clipped JD's jersey with that pitch and JD went berserker for some weird reason, and it was the very next day when he took off. He was one of the best hitters in baseball for three months, hit a ton of home runs, then starting September 15th didn't do much after that. Including the playoffs. I'm not saying he wasn't a monster during those three months because he was, but with his age I'm really hoping we do not sign him again now. I feel like we would be fine without him and use the money elsewhere. It actually wasn't the Musgrove fiasco that got JD going. Days prior he began hitting breaking stuff off the pitching machine, and that got him locked in. The Musgrove fiasco was just a coincidence. |
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 30, 2019 22:02:10 GMT -5
Oh, so performance means nothing, obviously. Cool. A smart GM would laugh his ass off when you slid your surplus value table in front of him for Touki. He's done nothing and may never do anything. Marte is a proven player. Big difference. When you throw in how badly they got burned by Tampa on the Archer deal, I doubt their eagerness to take that much risk. Someone else will offer more, too, IMO. Went ahead and did the math. Marte has two years of control at $24 million total in contract obligations. He's a 3.0 WAR player. If WAR is $8 million, that's $48 million worth of value. You subtract how much money he's making and his surplus value is $24 million. That's not really a lot. The Pirates, if they were looking at Braves prospects, aren't gonna get any of the Braves prospects ranked in the top-100. Wilson has lost some luster, he's not in the top-100 anymore, but he's a 50FV pitcher, and according to fangraphs, that's worth $21 million. Touki is still considered a 50FV prospect, as well. Even if you say, "Hey, that's too high for those two guys." Okay, drop it by half. If that's a more accurate representation then the Braves could trade Wilson and Touki for Marte. If those numbers are accurate, then you're looking at Wilson OR Touki plus a guy like Patrick Weigel, if they traded Wilson, or CJ Alexander, if they traded Touki. Basically, you're overrating veteran value and underrating prospect value. Not trying to be a dick, I'm just pointing out the numbers. You're trying to make your numbers be the end all and be all. I don't think that's how trades work in real life. I can't understand why you could expect to get Marte for 2 unproven pitchers who have failed pretty much every time they've been given a chance at the major league level, especially given that roughly 2 out of 3 pitching prospects fail. If they'd take Touki and Wilson, we should jump on that offer. |
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akod
Low A Farmhand
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Post by akod on Nov 30, 2019 22:16:55 GMT -5
Dude you are so stuck in the old days. “We don’t know what the kid will be, he’s done nothing in the majors to this point.” Marte having a bad year or an injured year and Waters becomes at worst a poor mans Markakis then we got murdered in the deal tying up 12 mil a year.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 30, 2019 22:29:54 GMT -5
Went ahead and did the math. Marte has two years of control at $24 million total in contract obligations. He's a 3.0 WAR player. If WAR is $8 million, that's $48 million worth of value. You subtract how much money he's making and his surplus value is $24 million. That's not really a lot. The Pirates, if they were looking at Braves prospects, aren't gonna get any of the Braves prospects ranked in the top-100. Wilson has lost some luster, he's not in the top-100 anymore, but he's a 50FV pitcher, and according to fangraphs, that's worth $21 million. Touki is still considered a 50FV prospect, as well. Even if you say, "Hey, that's too high for those two guys." Okay, drop it by half. If that's a more accurate representation then the Braves could trade Wilson and Touki for Marte. If those numbers are accurate, then you're looking at Wilson OR Touki plus a guy like Patrick Weigel, if they traded Wilson, or CJ Alexander, if they traded Touki. Basically, you're overrating veteran value and underrating prospect value. Not trying to be a dick, I'm just pointing out the numbers. You're trying to make your numbers be the end all and be all. I don't think that's how trades work in real life. I can't understand why you could expect to get Marte for 2 unproven pitchers who have failed pretty much every time they've been given a chance at the major league level, especially given that roughly 2 out of 3 pitching prospects fail. If they'd take Touki and Wilson, we should jump on that offer. Again, you're undervaluing prospects and you're hung up on small sample sizes. Front office GMs aren't paying attention to small sample sizes when it comes to young pitchers. They're looking at stuff and makeup; and whether he can take instruction. These guys still have a lot of potential. Just because they haven't shown it in the few chances they have had at the ML level doesn't mean they don't have it. I don't understand why I have to even explain this. Only a handful of prospects are able to jump to the majors without having any sort of struggles, literally a handful. You ignore it, but I assure you that GMs don't. A rebuilding team like the Pirates would look at those guys and think to themselves, "That's 2/5th of a rotation at MLB minimum salaries, we have them for 5+ years, and they have the potential to be 2nd or 3rd starters in our rotation." That has immense value; IMMENSE. WAY MORE than a 31-year old veteran with only 2-years left on his contract, on a team that's predicted to lose 100+ games each of the next two years. |
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akod
Low A Farmhand
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Post by akod on Nov 30, 2019 23:08:54 GMT -5
I honestly don’t know why we have to continue explaining this. Sure the Pirates will say they want a Waters type of return but they are not getting that from a savvy AA. He signed Acuna and Albies to be 2 of the very highest valued players in all of baseball. He’s signed short term free agents and traded mid level prospects. He has a winning team without taking unnecessary gambles- Marte for a top level prospect goes against everything he has built.
This is going to blow your mind- Say Pache and Waters both pan out enough to get a long term deal like Acuna and Albies. Also say we develop a Jo Adell type prospect in the minors. You ready? AA probably isn’t trading him for a need. Team building is fluid and having cheap options is vital.
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 30, 2019 23:38:20 GMT -5
Sounds to me like you guys are hung up on getting something for nothing. Results matter. I know some try to boil all this down to numbers, and that's fine, but the Pirates got taken to the woodshed in the Archer trade, and they're not gonna forget that. At some point, you have to deal with reality in addition to the numbers. Marte will be in high demand, and will fetch more than Touki and Wilson. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so. Toolsy center fielders don't come cheap.
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 30, 2019 23:42:29 GMT -5
No one knows what Waters will become, but right now he profiles as a guy with speed who hits for a decent average with very little pop. He does have the frame to develop power, though, and he's still young, but he's not a can't miss prospect, either. IMO
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Post by mauibravefan on Nov 30, 2019 23:42:50 GMT -5
And --just maybe a bunch of other teams like Marte also.Figure that into your equations
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 30, 2019 23:48:33 GMT -5
I like Marte a lot and have for many years, but a few facts are that he is 31 years old now, and he's been a 3.0 to 4.5 WAR player for many years. That's really solid, but that's not an elite player. At his age and only two years left on his contract, he's not going to draw top prospects in trade from any team. I've been saying for years I'd rather have 5-6 guys on my team that were 2-4 WAR players than two 6+ WAR players and a bunch of 1-2 WAR players. So I think Marte is a great player to have on your team. But as good as he's been he's not elite and he's past that magical age now of 30. I think it will take some decent mid level prospects, maybe one young major league ready player, but not anything the likes of Waters.
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 30, 2019 23:48:36 GMT -5
And --just maybe a bunch of other teams like Marte also.Figure that into your equations A bunch of teams are interested. He's a perfect fit for most any lineup. Someone will overpay. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 30, 2019 23:49:14 GMT -5
No one knows what Waters will become, but right now he profiles as a guy with speed who hits for a decent average with very little pop. He does have the frame to develop power, though, and he's still young, but he's not a can't miss prospect, either. IMO If that's the case, then all prospects should be traded for veterans. Right now, Drew Waters is rated as the #23 best prospect in baseball. That is extremely high, and with that comes extreme value. This isn't some foreign concept. Surplus value on prospects has been a thing for over a decade now. If you make it a habit of trading top-25 prospects, who carry obscene value, for 2 years of some veteran you're not going to be holding a job as GM of a major league franchise for very long. YOU may not see value in Wilson, Touki, or Waters, but every GM in baseball does. So, think we're all crazy for thinking trading Waters+ for Marte is a good idea. I don't really care. I'll be comforted in knowing that AA isn't going to make such a deal. And for the record, I would love to see the Braves trade for Marte; just not for the guys you propose. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 30, 2019 23:51:28 GMT -5
I like Marte a lot and have for many years, but a few facts are that he is 31 years old now, and he's been a 3.0 to 4.5 WAR player for many years. That's really solid, but that's not an elite player. At his age and only two years left on his contract, he's not going to draw top prospects in trade from any team. I've been saying for years I'd rather have 5-6 guys on my team that were 2-4 WAR players than two 6+ WAR players and a bunch of 1-2 WAR players. So I think Marte is a great player to have on your team. But as good as he's been he's not elite and he's past that magical age now of 30. I think it will take some decent mid level prospects, but not anything the likes of Waters. I think for the right deal, I would love to have Marte in LF for the next 2 years. Braves could trade Inciarte, and in short order, the Braves could have an outfield of Marte/Pache/Acuna. That's super elite and very awesome. You couple that with either JD or Moose; look out! Cool thing is that Marte doesn't make very much money, so, if they were to trade for him and sign Moose, along with trading Inciarte, they might have the cash to get MadBum. I would really like the Braves chances in the division and in the playoffs. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 30, 2019 23:54:18 GMT -5
A bunch of teams have caught on that the way to have continued success over the years is to dump overpaid aging vets and hoard prospects. If only half turn out to be good major league ballplayers, then it's much wiser to stockpile them and have 10 good prospects instead of 3-4. As the long term contracts are going away to guys at 30 years of age, more and more teams are going to jump on this philosophy. Having a couple of superstars and then a bunch of mediocre players at best doesn't win it all, it's too much of a team sport. You gotta have a good solid overall team.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Dec 1, 2019 1:07:17 GMT -5
A bunch of teams have caught on that the way to have continued success over the years is to dump overpaid aging vets and hoard prospects. If only half turn out to be good major league ballplayers, then it's much wiser to stockpile them and have 10 good prospects instead of 3-4. As the long term contracts are going away to guys at 30 years of age, more and more teams are going to jump on this philosophy. Having a couple of superstars and then a bunch of mediocre players at best doesn't win it all, it's too much of a team sport. You gotta have a good solid overall team. Or, you could always just cheat. |
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