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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2019 0:17:50 GMT -5
BaseballSavant is the StatCast website, and it uses "OAA - Outs Above Average" for defensive rankings. Ozuna was -8 OAA this year, which ranked him #83 of 92 qualified outfielders. Castellanos was #78. Totally get it. Still wondering what other options people suggest. I'm totally fine with relying on the outfielders we have already, including Riley and Camargo, and even relying on Riley and Camargo to cover 3rd base as well.....with Pache and Waters coming along, and spending money on Bumgarner. I don' think we're in a "have-to-have" big bat for the outfield. I believe Riley will get it figured it out and be really good, Camargo has shown he can hit and got it straightened out big time at the end of last year, I don't see the panic for a "big bat." I get the feeling the Braves don't totally agree and will probably sign Moustakas to be the clean up hitter, I won't hate that but I also don't think it's necessary. We're slobbering over Ozuna and Moustakas, who are 2-3 WAR players, and we've completely flushed away one of our own young players who was a 3.7 WAR player in 2018. A guy who put up a 116 wRC+ that year, when he was playing every day. We're supposed to respect the 110 and 107 wRC+ that Ozuna posted the last two years and disregard the 116? |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 27, 2019 0:43:56 GMT -5
Totally get it. Still wondering what other options people suggest. I'm totally fine with relying on the outfielders we have already, including Riley and Camargo, and even relying on Riley and Camargo to cover 3rd base as well.....with Pache and Waters coming along, and spending money on Bumgarner. I don' think we're in a "have-to-have" big bat for the outfield. I believe Riley will get it figured it out and be really good, Camargo has shown he can hit and got it straightened out big time at the end of last year, I don't see the panic for a "big bat." I get the feeling the Braves don't totally agree and will probably sign Moustakas to be the clean up hitter, I won't hate that but I also don't think it's necessary. We're slobbering over Ozuna and Moustakas, who are 2-3 WAR players, and we've completely flushed away one of our own young players who was a 3.7 WAR player in 2018. I totally respect that. I would love to one day hear why the Braves chose to sign JD to a one-year deal after the season Camargo had. Did they feel they needed to make a splash to quell the fan base? It sure appears like it. Did they not want to invest long term money because they were still trying to figure out exactly what they had? You gotta think so. There are so many questions surrounding the 2019 off-season. What I do remember was that the Braves needed an OFer and there were zero free agents, outside of Harper, to be had; I do know that. Braves could have made a trade, but I remember, at that time, AA was reluctant to trade prospects; which is understandable. The Braves didn't really need a 3rd baseman, because they had Camargo, but if Camargo could play LF, then they could sign JD. Problem was, Camargo couldn't play LF. So, he became SUPER-UTILITY GUY!!!!, but it's clear now that Camargo is no Martin Prado. After the season JD had, it's gonna be really hard to sell to the fanbase a Riley/Camargo tandem. If they're gonna try, then they'll need to sign someone better than MadBum, IMO. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2019 1:32:26 GMT -5
I'm totally fine with relying on the outfielders we have already, including Riley and Camargo, and even relying on Riley and Camargo to cover 3rd base as well.....with Pache and Waters coming along, and spending money on Bumgarner. I don' think we're in a "have-to-have" big bat for the outfield. I believe Riley will get it figured it out and be really good, Camargo has shown he can hit and got it straightened out big time at the end of last year, I don't see the panic for a "big bat." I get the feeling the Braves don't totally agree and will probably sign Moustakas to be the clean up hitter, I won't hate that but I also don't think it's necessary. We're slobbering over Ozuna and Moustakas, who are 2-3 WAR players, and we've completely flushed away one of our own young players who was a 3.7 WAR player in 2018. I totally respect that. I would love to one day hear why the Braves chose to sign JD to a one-year deal after the season Camargo had. Did they feel they needed to make a splash to quell the fan base? It sure appears like it. Did they not want to invest long term money because they were still trying to figure out exactly what they had? You gotta think so. There are so many questions surrounding the 2019 off-season. What I do remember was that the Braves needed an OFer and there were zero free agents, outside of Harper, to be had; I do know that. Braves could have made a trade, but I remember, at that time, AA was reluctant to trade prospects; which is understandable. The Braves didn't really need a 3rd baseman, because they had Camargo, but if Camargo could play LF, then they could sign JD. Problem was, Camargo couldn't play LF. So, he became SUPER-UTILITY GUY!!!!, but it's clear now that Camargo is no Martin Prado. After the season JD had, it's gonna be really hard to sell to the fanbase a Riley/Camargo tandem. If they're gonna try, then they'll need to sign someone better than MadBum, IMO. The other side to the JD signing is that we really were not ready to contend. I always thought it was to appease the majority of the fan base, make it look like you're really trying. The average fan does not have the patience to let the process evolve the way our rebuild has. I said all offseason last year we would win our division in 2019, but that was partly because I was not impressed with any of the other teams in the division despite their big hoopla signings. My confidence in us winning the division did not mean I thought we were ready to complete with the best 2-3 teams in baseball this year.
I'm not sure that Camargo ever proved he couldn't play LF, he didn't play very much out there. Considering he had never played the OF at any level, I'd think the jury is still out. You can't ask a guy to pick up something like that at the major league level and be really good at it right away.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 27, 2019 2:18:04 GMT -5
I totally respect that. I would love to one day hear why the Braves chose to sign JD to a one-year deal after the season Camargo had. Did they feel they needed to make a splash to quell the fan base? It sure appears like it. Did they not want to invest long term money because they were still trying to figure out exactly what they had? You gotta think so. There are so many questions surrounding the 2019 off-season. What I do remember was that the Braves needed an OFer and there were zero free agents, outside of Harper, to be had; I do know that. Braves could have made a trade, but I remember, at that time, AA was reluctant to trade prospects; which is understandable. The Braves didn't really need a 3rd baseman, because they had Camargo, but if Camargo could play LF, then they could sign JD. Problem was, Camargo couldn't play LF. So, he became SUPER-UTILITY GUY!!!!, but it's clear now that Camargo is no Martin Prado. After the season JD had, it's gonna be really hard to sell to the fanbase a Riley/Camargo tandem. If they're gonna try, then they'll need to sign someone better than MadBum, IMO. The other side to the JD signing is that we really were not ready to contend. I always thought it was to appease the majority of the fan base, make it look like you're really trying. The average fan does not have the patience to let the process evolve the way our rebuild has. I said all offseason last year we would win our division in 2019, but that was partly because I was not impressed with any of the other teams in the division despite their big hoopla signings. My confidence in us winning the division did not mean I thought we were ready to complete with the best 2-3 teams in baseball this year.
I'm not sure that Camargo ever proved he couldn't play LF, he didn't play very much out there. Considering he had never played the OF at any level, I'd think the jury is still out. You can't ask a guy to pick up something like that at the major league level and be really good at it right away.
I'll start where you ended by saying that it is my opinion the Braves saw what they saw and didn't like it. What other explanation could there be for not penciling him in as the every day LFer and instead making him Prado 2.0? I'm all ears because it certainly wasn't his offense. We're on the same page with the JD signing, and it worked out. We both agree that the Braves really didn't have to make that move. That being said, do the Braves win the division without him as you say? I'm not as convinced as you are. Now, the Braves are in a position to give Camargo 3rd base, but that's not going to happen. I think I posted it in this tread, I had listened to AA on MLB Radio last week and he said the Braves are definitely in the market for a 3rd baseman. That really doesn't bode well for Camargo, if you ask me, unless Snit figures out how to use a Super-sub effectively, but I seriously doubt it. IMO, they really should just trade him, and probably should have during last off-season. I don't really know why they did him wrong the way they did. I'd like to know why. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2019 2:43:09 GMT -5
The other side to the JD signing is that we really were not ready to contend. I always thought it was to appease the majority of the fan base, make it look like you're really trying. The average fan does not have the patience to let the process evolve the way our rebuild has. I said all offseason last year we would win our division in 2019, but that was partly because I was not impressed with any of the other teams in the division despite their big hoopla signings. My confidence in us winning the division did not mean I thought we were ready to complete with the best 2-3 teams in baseball this year.
I'm not sure that Camargo ever proved he couldn't play LF, he didn't play very much out there. Considering he had never played the OF at any level, I'd think the jury is still out. You can't ask a guy to pick up something like that at the major league level and be really good at it right away.
I'll start where you ended by saying that it is my opinion the Braves saw what they saw and didn't like it. What other explanation could there be for not penciling him in as the every day LFer and instead making him Prado 2.0? I'm all ears because it certainly wasn't his offense. We're on the same page with the JD signing, and it worked out. We both agree that the Braves really didn't have to make that move. That being said, do the Braves win the division without him as you say? I'm not as convinced as you are. Now, the Braves are in a position to give Camargo 3rd base, but that's not going to happen. I think I posted it in this tread, I had listened to AA on MLB Radio last week and he said the Braves are definitely in the market for a 3rd baseman. That really doesn't bode well for Camargo, if you ask me, unless Snit figures out how to use a Super-sub effectively, but I seriously doubt it. IMO, they really should just trade him, and probably should have during last off-season. I don't really know why they did him wrong the way they did. I'd like to know why. We started the season with Acuna, Inciarte and Markakis in the OF, so there was no way we could pencil in Camargo as a starting OFer. I think the other part of why maybe he didn't start in LF every day when Inciarte struggled and got hurt was because Johan hadn't played in the OF enough. He probably didn't look polished enough for them to say he could play there every day. I don't think he looked bad, but I don't think he looked polished either, but how could he?
I can look back at the JD signing and the Keuchel signing and at least see why they did it, from their perspective--my biggest fear with JD was injuries, I said when we signed him IF he stayed healthy he would produce and he did. We weren't really ready to compete for a championship, but with those two guys we built fan interest and hope and took a wild shot and and said maybe we get hot at the right time and get lucky.
Maybe, as some have accused, AA was doing a friend a favor. If so, it sure paid off for JD. AA has shown to be pretty loyal to guys who have played for him in the past.
When I say I felt sure we'd win the division, that was because I was under rating the Gnats. Even without JD we still finish ahead of the Faillies and Mutts, but the Gnats turned out to be the real deal. They would have won the division if we hadn't signed JD.
I have said several times they've really screwed the pooch with Camargo, because there were a lot teams that would have loved to have had him in their starting lineup last year. He had a lot of value after 2018. When a guy is handed a starting job at the age of 24 and puts up a 3.7 WAR for you, with that 116 wRC+, that's not a fluke in my book. So I'm confused as to what all happened before this season started. Was Snitker just blowing smoke up AA's rear end about be willing to get Camargo 400+ ABs? Is that why AA didn't trade him last offseason? Because that was the prime time to do it. And at no point in 2019 did Snitker show any commitment to get Johan regular ABs, to put it mildly. So now we're stuck hearing AA say they're looking for a 3rd baseman, which is bizarre to me because our guy put up that 3.7 WAR as our 3B in 2018, AND we have Riley on board. So what's the plan for those two guys this year? Not a word about Camargo, and I'm sure there's still teams that would love to have him, they just aren't going to offer as much in a trade now. We really handled an asset poorly in my book,whether it be to play him or trade him when his value was up. If they don't have a plan for him, and they don't appear to, then they should have moved him.
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Post by brady2705 on Nov 27, 2019 3:01:37 GMT -5
My preference all along has been Castellanos, I think most folks know that. My reasons are simple: 1. We need a true cleanup bat behind Freeman. That can't be Camargo/Riley at 3B, and it can't be Markakis/Duvall in LF ... It could have been (and was) Acuna, but that debate is now long settled, he's our leadoff guy ... I want Camargo to have his shot back at 3B, but that means our cleanup bat must come from the OF 2. Castellanos will be relatively cheap, maybe ~$15M annually, for 3-4 years 3. He is young, 28 I believe 4. He is a poor defender, but improving every year in RF, and at least has a strong arm (former 3B) 5. To his credit, he's only been an OF for ~2 years. He came up as a SS, became a 3B, and was moved to RF in MLB ... He's getting better with time 6. He has no QO, unlike Ozuna 7. He played great in Chicago, on a big stage for a team fighting for the playoffs 8. He can be that big RH bat behind Freeman at #4 9. This shifts Acuna to CF, and when Pache is ready, Acuna goes to LF, or we move Castellanos there do Acuna can go to RF 10. If Riley and Waters also pan out ... Well, that's the kind of good problem I'd like to have, and we could trade Castellanos down the road 11. Maintains the tradition of having a Greek named Nick in RF  |
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Post by brady2705 on Nov 27, 2019 3:05:56 GMT -5
All my points above about Castellanos ... That's what I would do. Now, I think what AA will do is sign Donaldson again, which fills the cleanup void. I wouldn't hate that, I just disagree with it from a resource allocation perspective. We have a strong 3B in Camargo, with a really strong prospect in Riley. Allocating $25M for numerous years to block those guys, objectively, is illogical. You have solid, cost controlled options in house. If JD goes sour, there's no trading the contract we give him. He'd be BJ/Uggla all over again.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2019 3:10:24 GMT -5
My preference all along has been Castellanos, I think most folks know that. My reasons are simple: 1. We need a true cleanup bat behind Freeman. That can't be Camargo/Riley at 3B, and it can't be Markakis/Duvall in LF ... It could have been (and was) Acuna, but that debate is now long settled, he's our leadoff guy ... I want Camargo to have his shot back at 3B, but that means our cleanup bat must come from the OF 2. Castellanos will be relatively cheap, maybe ~$15M annually, for 3-4 years 3. He is young, 28 I believe 4. He is a poor defender, but improving every year in RF, and at least has a strong arm (former 3B) 5. To his credit, he's only been an OF for ~2 years. He came up as a SS, became a 3B, and was moved to RF in MLB ... He's getting better with time 6. He has no QO, unlike Ozuna 7. He played great in Chicago, on a big stage for a team fighting for the playoffs 8. He can be that big RH bat behind Freeman at #4 9. This shifts Acuna to CF, and when Pache is ready, Acuna goes to LF, or we move Castellanos there do Acuna can go to RF 10. If Riley and Waters also pan out ... Well, that's the kind of good problem I'd like to have, and we could trade Castellanos down the road 11. Maintains the tradition of having a Greek named Nick in RF  I agree with everything you said, IF we assume we DO need a true cleanup hitter batting 4th. I think that's debatable because we managed fine with Nick hitting 4th a lot (as much as I hated that, we did have enough power spread through the lineup we were ok). And a lot of teams are going away from the idea of the true big basher hitting 4th. But if we go that way, I like your plan. If we don't go that way, Riley could be that basher, and I also think Camargo is capable of hitting 25 HRs if he plays every day. We already know he is a good hitter in high leverage situations, his numbers there and with RISP were still good in 2019. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2019 3:16:10 GMT -5
All my points above about Castellanos ... That's what I would do. Now, I think what AA will do is sign Donaldson again, which fills the cleanup void. I wouldn't hate that, I just disagree with it from a resource allocation perspective. We have a strong 3B in Camargo, with a really strong prospect in Riley. Allocating $25M for numerous years to block those guys, objectively, is illogical. You have solid, cost controlled options in house. If JD goes sour, there's no trading the contract we give him. He'd be BJ/Uggla all over again. I completely agree again.
And if we have no plan for Camargo, a saving grace that may still help us get some good value in a trade for him is that he tore it up in Gwinnett in August this year:
.483/.531/.690/1.221
I bought the minor league mlb package for the last two months to watch Pache and Waters, and Camargo ripped the ball. He hit a 450 HR one night. Then he came back up to the big club and had two doubles and two HRs in 12 PAs before he got hurt. So maybe he raised enough eyebrows to at least help his value again.
But if we sign either JD or Moustakas and don't trade Camargo I'm going to be completely miffed as to what the hell the thinking is.
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Post by brady2705 on Nov 27, 2019 7:08:21 GMT -5
But if we sign either JD or Moustakas and don't trade Camargo I'm going to be completely miffed as to what the hell the thinking is. Agree, if we fill 3B then we ought to trade Camargo and sign a guy like Hech or Holt for our IF bench. In my head I want to believe we could fetch a solid SP for a Camargo headlined package. If we sign an OF like Castellanos, we should probably trade Ender and resign a guy like Hamilton as backup CF and late-game defensive replacement for Castellanos. I'd have to believe Camargo has a higher trade value, but if we sign Castellanos instead of Donaldson, AND we trade away Ender ... then there should definitely be enough cash left over to pursue Wheeler or Bumgarner via free agency. |
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Post by hokiedan on Nov 27, 2019 7:16:45 GMT -5
Of the two I would much prefer Castellanos over Ozuna. Ozuna doesn't seem to fit the Braves clubhouse. Of course I said similar things about Donaldson.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2019 9:04:15 GMT -5
But if we sign either JD or Moustakas and don't trade Camargo I'm going to be completely miffed as to what the hell the thinking is. Agree, if we fill 3B then we ought to trade Camargo and sign a guy like Hech or Holt for our IF bench. In my head I want to believe we could fetch a solid SP for a Camargo headlined package. If we sign an OF like Castellanos, we should probably trade Ender and resign a guy like Hamilton as backup CF and late-game defensive replacement for Castellanos. I'd have to believe Camargo has a higher trade value, but if we sign Castellanos instead of Donaldson, AND we trade away Ender ... then there should definitely be enough cash left over to pursue Wheeler or Bumgarner via free agency. If we sign JD or Moustakas and Castellanos I see no reason in the world we shouldn’t trade Ender and Camargo. They’d have to bring a nice return, and SP would be a great target. |
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akod
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Post by akod on Nov 27, 2019 9:38:04 GMT -5
Agree, if we fill 3B then we ought to trade Camargo and sign a guy like Hech or Holt for our IF bench. In my head I want to believe we could fetch a solid SP for a Camargo headlined package. If we sign an OF like Castellanos, we should probably trade Ender and resign a guy like Hamilton as backup CF and late-game defensive replacement for Castellanos. I'd have to believe Camargo has a higher trade value, but if we sign Castellanos instead of Donaldson, AND we trade away Ender ... then there should definitely be enough cash left over to pursue Wheeler or Bumgarner via free agency. If we sign JD or Moustakas and Castellanos I see no reason in the world we shouldn’t trade Ender and Camargo. They’d have to bring a nice return, and SP would be a great target. I could be wrong but I don’t think teams value Ender and Camargo very highly. I wouldn’t. I hope they play and establish value but at the moment their value has to be at an all time low. |
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Nov 27, 2019 11:05:38 GMT -5
The reason for JD last year and probably Moose this year is because of the thought process of needing a power bat at cleanup behind Freeman.
If they thought Riley was ready to do it against left and right handed pitching, it would be his job.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2019 12:03:25 GMT -5
The reason for JD last year and probably Moose this year is because of the thought process of needing a power bat at cleanup behind Freeman. If they thought Riley was ready to do it against left and right handed pitching, it would be his job. The thing about the "power bat" behind Freeman...I'm not so sure Moustakas is really that--he's hit a lot of HRs the last few years, but his wRC+ is still only 110 for the last three years. That's nothing to sneeze at, but if we're looking at true cleanup hitters that are "power bats" I think it goes beyond HRs and a higher wRC+ than that. The other side is Moustakas is not that good of a defensive player, he's kind of average. |
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