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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 26, 2019 20:47:07 GMT -5
Ozuna is the kind of signing you could expect from frank wren that would backfire immediately. I'm not standing on the Ozuna hill and planting a flag, but I just don't get this take. Ozuna is an above average player and the Braves are in need of above average players. If you have a better idea then say so. I'm willing to debate on the merits. What WAR level is average? My understanding is about 2.0 WAR.
In the last 5 seasons he's had four WAR years that average out right at 2.0 WAR per year, and then one real good season. He was a 2.2 in 2019.
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Post by mauibravefan on Nov 26, 2019 20:47:20 GMT -5
MLB Trade rumors "11. Marcell Ozuna – Giants. Three years, $45MM. Ozuna’s market figures to be similar to that of Castellanos. Ozuna does have one huge season on his resume: his 2017 campaign for the Marlins wherein he posted a career-best 143 wRC+ with 37 home runs. Miami traded him to the Cardinals afterward, and his offense in St. Louis was pedestrian. Ozuna’s 108 wRC+ over the past two seasons is worse than a more affordable free agent like Yasiel Puig. Plus, unlike Castellanos, he’s been saddled with a qualifying offer. Ozuna’s arm pretty much limits him to left field, where he has received above-average defensive marks.
There is a silver lining here, and it’s in Ozuna’s Statcast numbers. Ozuna’s average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage were both in the 93rd percentile or better this year, suggesting that his current skill level will produce better results in the future. Plus, he turns 29 this month, so he’s young enough to present some upside. Assuming Ozuna turns down his qualifying offer from the Cardinals, he’s expected to sign elsewhere. The Giants, Marlins, Reds, Padres, Indians, Tigers, and Royals could make sense."
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 26, 2019 20:52:09 GMT -5
MLB Trade rumors "11. Marcell Ozuna – Giants. Three years, $45MM. Ozuna’s market figures to be similar to that of Castellanos. Ozuna does have one huge season on his resume: his 2017 campaign for the Marlins wherein he posted a career-best 143 wRC+ with 37 home runs. Miami traded him to the Cardinals afterward, and his offense in St. Louis was pedestrian. Ozuna’s 108 wRC+ over the past two seasons is worse than a more affordable free agent like Yasiel Puig. Plus, unlike Castellanos, he’s been saddled with a qualifying offer. Ozuna’s arm pretty much limits him to left field, where he has received above-average defensive marks. There is a silver lining here, and it’s in Ozuna’s Statcast numbers. Ozuna’s average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage were both in the 93rd percentile or better this year, suggesting that his current skill level will produce better results in the future. Plus, he turns 29 this month, so he’s young enough to present some upside. Assuming Ozuna turns down his qualifying offer from the Cardinals, he’s expected to sign elsewhere. The Giants, Marlins, Reds, Padres, Indians, Tigers, and Royals could make sense." And the Cardinals would REALLY makes sense because they were a very weak offensive team even with Ozuna's bat int he lineup, but you don't hear anybody rumoring the Cardinals to resign Ozuna. And the Cardinals traded away Sandy Alcantrara and a real good OF prospect to get those two years of Ozuna, so they have a LOT invested in him. You'd think they'd be all over making sure they sign him now. |
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Post by mauibravefan on Nov 26, 2019 21:05:58 GMT -5
MLB Trade rumors "11. Marcell Ozuna – Giants. Three years, $45MM. Ozuna’s market figures to be similar to that of Castellanos. Ozuna does have one huge season on his resume: his 2017 campaign for the Marlins wherein he posted a career-best 143 wRC+ with 37 home runs. Miami traded him to the Cardinals afterward, and his offense in St. Louis was pedestrian. Ozuna’s 108 wRC+ over the past two seasons is worse than a more affordable free agent like Yasiel Puig. Plus, unlike Castellanos, he’s been saddled with a qualifying offer. Ozuna’s arm pretty much limits him to left field, where he has received above-average defensive marks. There is a silver lining here, and it’s in Ozuna’s Statcast numbers. Ozuna’s average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage were both in the 93rd percentile or better this year, suggesting that his current skill level will produce better results in the future. Plus, he turns 29 this month, so he’s young enough to present some upside. Assuming Ozuna turns down his qualifying offer from the Cardinals, he’s expected to sign elsewhere. The Giants, Marlins, Reds, Padres, Indians, Tigers, and Royals could make sense." And the Cardinals would REALLY makes sense because they were a very weak offensive team even with Ozuna's bat int he lineup, but you don't hear anybody rumoring the Cardinals to resign Ozuna. And the Cardinals traded away Sandy Alcantrara and a real good OF prospect to get those two years of Ozuna, so they have a LOT invested in him. You'd think they'd be all over making sure they sign him now. Interesting ,made a qualifying offer they expected him to decline? But not pursuing him? Maybe they know him better than us? But that's all conjecture  |
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Post by PABraveFan on Nov 26, 2019 21:24:33 GMT -5
LMAO. I'd never seen that. That might be the worst play I've ever seen! I like the reaction of the Dodgers bullpen. It looked like a fall of embarrassment more than anything but maybe he was really hurt. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 26, 2019 21:34:21 GMT -5
And the Cardinals would REALLY makes sense because they were a very weak offensive team even with Ozuna's bat int he lineup, but you don't hear anybody rumoring the Cardinals to resign Ozuna. And the Cardinals traded away Sandy Alcantrara and a real good OF prospect to get those two years of Ozuna, so they have a LOT invested in him. You'd think they'd be all over making sure they sign him now. Interesting ,made a qualifying offer they expected him to decline? But not pursuing him? Maybe they know him better than us? But that's all conjecture He's onto something!
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 26, 2019 21:36:45 GMT -5
I like the reaction of the Dodgers bullpen. It looked like a fall of embarrassment more than anything but maybe he was really hurt. He took a pretty good fall and a head slam, who knows. |
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 26, 2019 21:40:53 GMT -5
2017 was his best year by far, and that was on a bad team. I've always believed that some guys could put up numbers on a bad team more easily than on a good team. I mean, think about it, you're behind more often by bigger margins. You see better pitches, etc. 2017 was not just an outlier for him, either but a very large outlier.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 26, 2019 22:01:23 GMT -5
He's certainly unconventional, but c'mon dude, the Braves trotted out Austin Riley for 60 games, this really can't be that big of a deal here.The numbers are the numbers, and maybe there are flaws, there probably are, but they're the best we have at the moment, and if the choice is between trusting these stats, or our eyes, I'm taking the stats. Biggest mistake of that play was that he didn't double check the flight of the ball. He just assumed it was going out. It wasn't, lol. The difference is the cost. I just hope we don't spend a bunch of money on Ozuna. I'm not a fan of him to begin with, but especially if we put much money into him. I thought really highly of him a few years ago, but not at this point. MLBTR predicts that he’ll get three years for $45 million. Moose is predicted to get 2-years for $20 million. While JD is predicted to get 3 years for $75 million. That’s two players for the price of one! I don’t think the number for Ozuna is that bad when you consider that the cost of 1.0 WAR is like $9 million. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 26, 2019 22:03:02 GMT -5
NL Notes: Ozuna, Braves, Marlins, Reds, D-backs, Souza
November 18th, 2019 at 10:55pm CST • By Anthony Franco
The Braves “have some interest” in free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, hears Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Atlanta joins the previously-known Cardinals, Reds, White Sox, Rangers, and Marlins in the early sweepstakes for the corner outfielder.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 26, 2019 22:14:12 GMT -5
The difference is the cost. I just hope we don't spend a bunch of money on Ozuna. I'm not a fan of him to begin with, but especially if we put much money into him. I thought really highly of him a few years ago, but not at this point. MLBTR predicts that he’ll get three years for $45 million. Moose is predicted to get 2-years for $20 million. While JD is predicted to get 3 years for $75 million. That’s two players for the price of one! I don’t think the number for Ozuna is that bad when you consider that the cost of 1.0 WAR is like $9 million. If 1 WAR is worth $9M, and the average WAR in baseball is 2.0, then the average salary in baseball must be $18M per year.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 26, 2019 22:37:32 GMT -5
MLBTR predicts that he’ll get three years for $45 million. Moose is predicted to get 2-years for $20 million. While JD is predicted to get 3 years for $75 million. That’s two players for the price of one! I don’t think the number for Ozuna is that bad when you consider that the cost of 1.0 WAR is like $9 million. If 1 WAR is worth $9M, and the average WAR in baseball is 2.0, then the average salary in baseball must be $18M per year.
You’re not accounting for players before and currently under arbitration. |
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Post by brady2705 on Nov 26, 2019 23:13:43 GMT -5
BaseballSavant is the StatCast website, and it uses "OAA - Outs Above Average" for defensive rankings. Ozuna was -8 OAA this year, which ranked him #83 of 92 qualified outfielders.
Castellanos was #78.
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Post by mauibravefan on Nov 26, 2019 23:21:30 GMT -5
I realize all that, and we've had some conversations lately about the accuracy of defensive analytics. I'm not sure I've ever had a lot of confidence in them, but as time goes on I'm feeling less and less confident.
I'm saying I've seen him play a lot over the last two years, I've not gotten a response from you yet saying that you HAVE seen him play. And I do not believe he had to make a single throw of any significance in our playoff series so that doesn't count.
Not that this one play makes my point, I'm not trying to do that, but this is an all time epic play:
Looks like Ozoneas been sniffing chlorofluorocarbons |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 26, 2019 23:27:33 GMT -5
BaseballSavant is the StatCast website, and it uses "OAA - Outs Above Average" for defensive rankings. Ozuna was -8 OAA this year, which ranked him #83 of 92 qualified outfielders. Castellanos was #78. Totally get it. Still wondering what other options people suggest. |
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