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Post by keystone61 on Jan 18, 2020 21:35:36 GMT -5
I do appreciate your understanding of where Water’s bat is compared to Pache at the moment at least. He has a doubles machine type swing that may really take off with the super juiced ball in AAA. I love Pache, he’s been my breakout guy for years and has the massive upside to pair another superstar with Acuna. However, he is not likely to make that same leap Acuna did and will need time to develop. Waters at this point definitely has the bat that could provide Kakes like production from the start, not bad for a guy that can barely drink. I think the best comparison for waters is Jeff McNeil and that pretty good I like the game, but I hope that doesn't mean we've got 5 or 6 more years to wait on Waters. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 18, 2020 21:45:37 GMT -5
I don't either. I was mainly saying I wouldn't want to give up any of our top 5 prospects in that deal. I wouldn't really want to give up Riley either, but if we end up not having a plan for him I'd rather move him somewhere for something. I see Seager and Haniger both as guys who could have a big upside but both could be pretty meh too. Seager has a cumulative WAR of 5.9 over the last three years. Haniger on the other hand has beast potential so I definitely wouldn't mind taking a chance on him.
that deal would cost Ender, Riley, Wright and Wilson at the very least Care to show your research? I may be a “know it all” but at least I show my research. |
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Post by littlebeast1 on Jan 18, 2020 22:23:56 GMT -5
that deal would cost Ender, Riley, Wright and Wilson at the very least Care to show your research? I may be a “know it all” but at least I show my research. That would be a massive overpay on the Braves end per the value simulator. Take out Wright and Riley and put in Weigel and Camargo and then, it’s more of an even trade. |
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Post by keystone61 on Jan 19, 2020 9:51:34 GMT -5
IF Ozuna could be had on a 1-year deal, I wouldn't be opposed to that, and that could happen. The cards have a glut of outfielders, and Texas seems to be prioritizing Castellanos.
From MLB trade rumors:
Marcell Ozuna continues to linger as a possibility to rejoin the team, though Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears from a source that the Cardinals will “have to up their offer for him to return.” Ozuna recently hinted that the Cards and Rangers were his two top suitors, and reports from earlier this month suggested that the Reds were also still in the mix. That said, there have also been rumblings that the Rangers’ top outfield (and first base) target might be Nicholas Castellanos rather than Ozuna, and it remains to be seen if Cincinnati will further add to its rather crowded outfield after signing Shogo Akiyama. The Cardinals themselves have quite a few outfield options to juggle, of course, and between that depth and potentially the lack of a strong bidding war for Ozuna’s services, the club may not see a reason yet to offer him a larger contract.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2020 10:19:58 GMT -5
Hunter Pence or Curtis Granderson anyone?
Sure they are in the back end of their careers, but Pence did have a decent yr last yr and put up a 1.7 WAR playing 84 games (Not bad) and he does fit in the big bat type they might want
Granderson was terrible, maybe done but he too has some pop left (12 HRS 34 RBI)
Just throwing a couple of lower cost guys who can be brought in for a year.
I doubt they can get Ozuna and Castellanos for just one yr & as previously said, one yr is likely what they are looking for
I do not think they want to give up the farm. Can't blame them, I would not do it for even two yrs of Bryant or Arenado and we cannot be sure of more than two yrs of Arenado cause of the opt out
Oh yea, to add (for the few Puig fans) - not in a thousand yrs as far as I am concerned, I would take Brad Kommisk and Pat Rocket out of retirement over Puig
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Post by brady2705 on Jan 19, 2020 11:35:04 GMT -5
The silence from Braves FO is both brilliant, and infuriating. I have a ton of faith in AA, I think he's the best GM we've had since Scheurholz, by far. However ... I just wish I knew what they were working on/thinking.
To me, it's Castellanos, and it's a no brainier. Has been all off-season. I know not everyone agrees, but it just seems so perfect to me. He has less space to manage in RF with the high wall and short porch, and his defense was comparable to Markakis in 2019. Lazy writers (I'm talking about you, talkingchop podcast folks) just say "his defense is awful." Well yes, it's certainly not good. But 2018 was the first time he's EVER played OF. He improved by leaps and bounds in 2019, according to every defensive metric. The one I trust most is StatCast's Outs Above Average, since that's where the IR cameras are actually tracking the players every movement, and calculating things like first step, Sprint speed, and route efficiency. To me, that's the only valid defensive metric, and everything else is child's play that was simply waiting for technology to give us OAA. Well, in 2019 Castellanos had a -7 OAA. Not good. But better than:
Marcel Ozuna (-8)
Ryan Braun (-8)
Charlie Blackmon (-9)
Andrew Benintendi (-10)
Tommy Pham (-11)
Domingo Santana (-13)
Eddie Rosario (-17)
And it put him right in the ballpark of:
Christian Yelich (-4)
Alex Gordon (-5)
Trey Mancini (-6)
Dexter Fowler (-6)
Michael Brantley (-6)
So yes, his defense is not good. But is that being overstated? Dramatically so.
His defense is comparable to nearly every realistic OF option that we've been discussing, save Marte or Haniger.
And, unlike those two, all it costs is money! Signing Castellanos puts our payroll right around where it was in 2019 (mid-upper $140s), and allows us to use our prospects capital to talk about trading for an ace ... Hello Cleveland, give me all your Clevinger's please (Newk, Waters, Wright for Clevinger, etc ).
4 years, $16-17M ... Go get it done.
Markakis becomes bench bat, that's what we're paying him $4M for ... And that's why AA hasn't resigned Joyce, as they would be duplicative.
Braves go all sabermetricy with lineup to optimize OF defense and make Acuna a #2 hitter when the lineup swings back around:
1 LF R Acuna
2 2B S Albies
3 1B L Freeman
4 RF R Castellanos
5 3B S Camargo
6 C R D'Arneau
7 SS R Swanson
8 ** PITCHER **
9 CF L Inciarte
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 19, 2020 12:12:10 GMT -5
The silence from Braves FO is both brilliant, and infuriating. I have a ton of faith in AA, I think he's the best GM we've had since Scheurholz, by far. However ... I just wish I knew what they were working on/thinking. To me, it's Castellanos, and it's a no brainier. Has been all off-season. I know not everyone agrees, but it just seems so perfect to me. He has less space to manage in RF with the high wall and short porch, and his defense was comparable to Markakis in 2019. Lazy writers (I'm talking about you, talkingchop podcast folks) just say "his defense is awful." Well yes, it's certainly not good. But 2018 was the first time he's EVER played OF. He improved by leaps and bounds in 2019, according to every defensive metric. The one I trust most is StatCast's Outs Above Average, since that's where the IR cameras are actually tracking the players every movement, and calculating things like first step, Sprint speed, and route efficiency. To me, that's the only valid defensive metric, and everything else is child's play that was simply waiting for technology to give us OAA. Well, in 2019 Castellanos had a -7 OAA. Not good. But better than: Marcel Ozuna (-8) Ryan Braun (-8) Charlie Blackmon (-9) Andrew Benintendi (-10) Tommy Pham (-11) Domingo Santana (-13) Eddie Rosario (-17) And it put him right in the ballpark of: Christian Yelich (-4) Alex Gordon (-5) Trey Mancini (-6) Dexter Fowler (-6) Michael Brantley (-6) So yes, his defense is not good. But is that being overstated? Dramatically so. His defense is comparable to nearly every realistic OF option that we've been discussing, save Marte or Haniger. And, unlike those two, all it costs is money! Signing Castellanos puts our payroll right around where it was in 2019 (mid-upper $140s), and allows us to use our prospects capital to talk about trading for an ace ... Hello Cleveland, give me all your Clevinger's please (Newk, Waters, Wright for Clevinger, etc ). 4 years, $16-17M ... Go get it done. Markakis becomes bench bat, that's what we're paying him $4M for ... And that's why AA hasn't resigned Joyce, as they would be duplicative. Braves go all sabermetricy with lineup to optimize OF defense and make Acuna a #2 hitter when the lineup swings back around: 1 LF R Acuna 2 2B S Albies 3 1B L Freeman 4 RF R Castellanos 5 3B S Camargo 6 C R D'Arneau 7 SS R Swanson 8 ** PITCHER ** 9 CF L Inciarte I can get behind Ron Swanson as the Braves shortstop. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 19, 2020 12:21:14 GMT -5
I could vote for Ron Swanson too if he could be more consistent than Dansby.
I like Brady’s plan but I’d rather have Markakis in there against righties and Riley against lefties, Ender always on the bench. But that’s not going to happen, which is why I would trade Ender.
The other point I mildly disagree with is having Joyce and Markakis isn’t duplicative to me, Joyce is better on both sides of the ball, we should have signed him and let Nick move on. But again we know why that wasn’t going to happen.
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Post by brady2705 on Jan 19, 2020 12:32:05 GMT -5
I could vote for Ron Swanson too if he could be more consistent than Dansby. I like Brady’s plan but I’d rather have Markakis in there against righties and Riley against lefties, Ender always on the bench. But that’s not going to happen, which is why I would trade Ender. The other point I mildly disagree with is having Joyce and Markakis isn’t duplicative to me, Joyce is better on both sides of the ball, we should have signed him and let Nick move on. But again we know why that wasn’t going to happen. I 100% agree, I would rather have Joyce as well. But since we already signed Markakis, it makes sense to me that AA hasn't signed Joyce, if he envisions Nick being more of a bench bat in 2019. If that's AA's plan, it makes sense to pass on Joyce, even if I'd rather have kept Joyce than Markakis. |
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jan 19, 2020 12:38:19 GMT -5
I agree about Joyce vs Kakes
I would like to think it's because they think Neck can play left and Joyce's only position is RF, but I think it's more than that... and I
don't think that "more" is actually valid.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 19, 2020 13:23:40 GMT -5
Sargent Saggysack has a plaque on the wall in his office that says “you can take away my Markakis when you pry it from my cold dead fingers.”
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 19, 2020 13:30:29 GMT -5
I had to look it up, but Joyce has played 2937 innings in LF and 4309 in RF during his career, with a slightly better UZR/150 in LF.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jan 19, 2020 13:35:09 GMT -5
Well then that further verifies we should have kept him and let Kakes go.
This is why we can't have nice things.
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Post by wncbravesfan on Jan 19, 2020 15:02:08 GMT -5
OK, it's time to get another bat for the Braves....
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Post by littlebeast1 on Jan 19, 2020 15:15:49 GMT -5
Well then that further verifies we should have kept him and let Kakes go. This is why we can't have nice things. Other than a slight difference in age, they are basically the same player. Don’t personally see how keeping one over the other is a huge difference maker in the grand scheme of things. |
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