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Post by keystone61 on Jan 11, 2020 13:04:37 GMT -5
Yes, and 3 times 1.3 equals 3.9. You're not getting 6 WAR out of Badhaircut again. IMO. Did you really just argue that what JD did in his first 200 at-bats would be exactly what he would have done in his next 200...and his next 200...and his next 200? No. I multiplied 3 times 1.3. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 11, 2020 13:07:33 GMT -5
I don’t agree with that if we’re paying him around $100M. And I’m not sure we’d get that much WAR out of him at this point. In 2018 he had a 1.3 WAR. The same year Camargo had a 3.7 WAR. Yeah JD was hurt, but that’s not an excuse. Come on Uck... you can't make that comment with a straight face. JD played in only 52 games that year with a little over 200 plate appearance's while Camargo played in 134 with over 500. WAR is a cumulative stat, and you know that. Staying healthy is part of the equation, even if it’s a freak accident injury, it counts. That’s part of the whole argument right now about the risk of signing JD. The point being it happened and it could happen again. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 11, 2020 13:13:18 GMT -5
Did you really just argue that what JD did in his first 200 at-bats would be exactly what he would have done in his next 200...and his next 200...and his next 200? No. I multiplied 3 times 1.3. That’s the same thing as saying what a player does in his first 200 at-bats, he’ll do in his next 200, and his next 200. All one has to do is look at what JD did in his first 200 at-bats, as a Brave, and then see what he did for the rest of the year, to realize how ridiculous that argument is. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 11, 2020 13:15:07 GMT -5
Come on Uck... you can't make that comment with a straight face. JD played in only 52 games that year with a little over 200 plate appearance's while Camargo played in 134 with over 500. WAR is a cumulative stat, and you know that. Staying healthy is part of the equation, even if it’s a freak accident injury, it counts. That’s part of the whole argument right now about the risk of signing JD. The point being it happened and it could happen again. Ya, but you’re arguing JD wasn’t good that year cause he was hurt. No, he was hurt. There’s a difference. Getting injured isn’t predictive, and are mostly fluke occurrences, so you can’t really use it when comparing players. |
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Post by keystone61 on Jan 11, 2020 13:45:06 GMT -5
No. I multiplied 3 times 1.3. That’s the same thing as saying what a player does in his first 200 at-bats, he’ll do in his next 200, and his next 200. All one has to do is look at what JD did in his first 200 at-bats, as a Brave, and then see what he did for the rest of the year, to realize how ridiculous that argument is. This from a guy whose opinions are based almost exclusively on the fantasy machine. I'm crushed. I suppose every Donaldson season follows the exact same path as 2019. Hell, we should give him whatever he wants since we should have been paying him $50 million last year based on your machine. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 11, 2020 15:37:33 GMT -5
That’s the same thing as saying what a player does in his first 200 at-bats, he’ll do in his next 200, and his next 200. All one has to do is look at what JD did in his first 200 at-bats, as a Brave, and then see what he did for the rest of the year, to realize how ridiculous that argument is. This from a guy whose opinions are based almost exclusively on the fantasy machine. I'm crushed. I suppose every Donaldson season follows the exact same path as 2019. Hell, we should give him whatever he wants since we should have been paying him $50 million last year based on your machine. How about you respond to my argument, rather than ad hominem? Your argument doesn’t make sense and I already laid out why. Players aren’t robots. |
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Post by mauibravefan on Jan 11, 2020 15:42:20 GMT -5
Opinions are like farts ,hard to hold in and when one gets out at least one person will leave the room
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 11, 2020 15:43:13 GMT -5
Staying healthy is part of the equation, even if it’s a freak accident injury, it counts. That’s part of the whole argument right now about the risk of signing JD. The point being it happened and it could happen again. Ya, but you’re arguing JD wasn’t good that year cause he was hurt. No, he was hurt. There’s a difference. Getting injured isn’t predictive, and are mostly fluke occurrences, so you can’t really use it when comparing players. All I’m arguing is that the bottom line for production was that he had a 1.3 WAR. I don’t care what the reason was. Somebody paid him a LOT of money and got 1.3 WAR in return. Again, that’s a big part of the argument against giving him 4 years and $100M. Injuries aren’t predictive, but are a helluva lot more likely to occur when a guy is 34 and had injury issues in both 2017 and 2018. |
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Post by keystone61 on Jan 11, 2020 16:21:32 GMT -5
This from a guy whose opinions are based almost exclusively on the fantasy machine. I'm crushed. I suppose every Donaldson season follows the exact same path as 2019. Hell, we should give him whatever he wants since we should have been paying him $50 million last year based on your machine. How about you respond to my argument, rather than ad hominem? Your argument doesn’t make sense and I already laid out why. Players aren’t robots. I'm not in an argument. I'm simply responding to your typical know-it-all comments. Anybody can read bullsheet data from a machine and regurgitate it. $9 million per war............LMAO. Whatever, dude. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 11, 2020 16:44:33 GMT -5
Ya, but you’re arguing JD wasn’t good that year cause he was hurt. No, he was hurt. There’s a difference. Getting injured isn’t predictive, and are mostly fluke occurrences, so you can’t really use it when comparing players. All I’m arguing is that the bottom line for production was that he had a 1.3 WAR. I don’t care what the reason was. Somebody paid him a LOT of money and got 1.3 WAR in return. Again, that’s a big part of the argument against giving him 4 years and $100M. Injuries aren’t predictive, but are a helluva lot more likely to occur when a guy is 34 and had injury issues in both 2017 and 2018. Injuries are a part of the game, that’s why team’s have insurance, so they can recoup some of the money. Ya, he was hurt, but that’s a part of the game. I don’t really see it as something to use to compare players or future production. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 11, 2020 16:45:56 GMT -5
How about you respond to my argument, rather than ad hominem? Your argument doesn’t make sense and I already laid out why. Players aren’t robots. I'm not in an argument. I'm simply responding to your typical know-it-all comments. Anybody can read bullsheet data from a machine and regurgitate it. $9 million per war............LMAO. Whatever, dude. Grow up. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 11, 2020 17:03:51 GMT -5
All I’m arguing is that the bottom line for production was that he had a 1.3 WAR. I don’t care what the reason was. Somebody paid him a LOT of money and got 1.3 WAR in return. Again, that’s a big part of the argument against giving him 4 years and $100M. Injuries aren’t predictive, but are a helluva lot more likely to occur when a guy is 34 and had injury issues in both 2017 and 2018. Injuries are a part of the game, that’s why team’s have insurance, so they can recoup some of the money. Ya, he was hurt, but that’s a part of the game. I don’t really see it as something to use to compare players or future production. Even with insurance it still hurts the team when a guy supplies a 1.3 WAR, no matter what the reason is. And I do fully believe it's valid to use that when evaluating what your realistic expectations can be for future production. And when a guy is 34 and had those recent injury issues, the odds go way up. It's part of being a smart businessman. Even if you recoup the money from insurance you've still lost production you were counting on when you hired that employee. |
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jan 11, 2020 18:57:57 GMT -5
Well we have proven one thing and I agree with it totally...
If JD gets hurt and can't play, his WAR value will probably end up
being worse that someone else who stays healthy and plays.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 11, 2020 19:02:44 GMT -5
Well we have proven one thing and I agree with it totally... If JD gets hurt and can't play, his WAR value will probably end up being worse that someone else who stays healthy and plays. And are the odds greater that could happen with him than the average player? |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 11, 2020 20:32:03 GMT -5
Well we have proven one thing and I agree with it totally... If JD gets hurt and can't play, his WAR value will probably end up being worse that someone else who stays healthy and plays. If... |
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