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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 11, 2020 2:44:50 GMT -5
I agree with you, to a point. Even if Camargo plays every day, I sincerely doubt he matches JD’s production, all things being equal. Not if JD's healthy. I think if Camargo played every day he would consistently be a 2-4 WAR player and JD is clearly a 5-8 WAR player if healthy. The only other variable that could bring JD down would be him possibly developing an issue catching up to the fastball as the years go by, that's fairly common after guys are past their prime. Already happening to Godlschmidt at 32. Ya, all things equal, JD is the far superior player. Maybe age catches up, maybe, but even if it does, his defense could still allow him to be a 3 WAR player, or Camargo at his best. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 11, 2020 3:01:19 GMT -5
Not if JD's healthy. I think if Camargo played every day he would consistently be a 2-4 WAR player and JD is clearly a 5-8 WAR player if healthy. The only other variable that could bring JD down would be him possibly developing an issue catching up to the fastball as the years go by, that's fairly common after guys are past their prime. Already happening to Godlschmidt at 32. Ya, all things equal, JD is the far superior player. Maybe age catches up, maybe, but even if it does, his defense could still allow him to be a 3 WAR player, or Camargo at his best. Well let’s be fair, Camargo already had a 3.7 season, in his first full year in the big leagues. A point where 90% or more players struggle to adjust. And JDs defense is slipping. He did make a lot of great plays in 2019 but missed quite a few pretty routine ones too. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 11, 2020 3:45:56 GMT -5
Ya, all things equal, JD is the far superior player. Maybe age catches up, maybe, but even if it does, his defense could still allow him to be a 3 WAR player, or Camargo at his best. Well let’s be fair, Camargo already had a 3.7 season, in his first full year in the big leagues. A point where 90% or more players struggle to adjust. And JDs defense is slipping. He did make a lot of great plays in 2019 but missed quite a few pretty routine ones too. To be fair, Camargo is slightly better than JD at his worst, all things being equal. Like I said, I like Camargo as much as the next guy, and IMO, if he's ever going to have a chance to be what some here think he can be, it's gonna have to be on another team. What the Braves need is a 4-hole hitter with power, and there aren't many positions where they can get that; since Acuna doesn't seem to want to do it. You got CF, C, and 3rd, really. Braves, pretty much, have settled on the idea that either Pache or Waters are going to play CF, and Catcher's don't typically play every day, unless you're Grandal. We can go back and forth on Grandal, all day long. I'm of the opinion that playing in Arizona was so important that the Braves never had a chance, but honestly, we'll never know the truth. Did the Braves make an offer? Was he even interested in playing for the Braves? Who knows. Either way, all that's left is 3rd. Plenty could argue that the Braves f'ed up by resigning Neck and not going after a power hitting OFer. I can get behind that, but with how much money some of these guys are getting, it'd have to be via trade and as we both know, the Braves haven't been big on BIG trades that involve their arsenal of prospects. So, again, that really only leaves 3rd. JD fits the bill, Camargo doesn't. It's just the sad state of reality for Camargo. I like the kid, I really do. Braves should trade him. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 11, 2020 7:42:48 GMT -5
I don’t disagree at all, I know what you’re saying. But I don’t think we can assume we’re going to get that much out of JD. I think you’ve said 13 WAR in four years would be a win for us, I don’t agree with that if we’re paying him around $100M. And I’m not sure we’d get that much WAR out of him at this point. In 2018 he had a 1.3 WAR. The same year Camargo had a 3.7 WAR. Yeah JD was hurt, but that’s not an excuse.
If we do sign JD I do hope that we trade Camargo, for his sake and for our sake. We’ve already wasted that asset and need to get somebody we have a plan for, and he deserves to go somewhere and play every day.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 11, 2020 8:06:25 GMT -5
And as good a season as JD just had, there’s a clear sign of regression over the last three years. His wRC+ is down, OPS down and strikeouts up quite a bit. I know he’s still a really good player with impressive numbers, but not what he once was. So when does the next step in regression come? It’s common at his age for the next one to become a sudden and huge drop off.
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Post by keystone61 on Jan 11, 2020 8:09:20 GMT -5
I get what you're saying and agree for the most part, but age is a factor here, and a pretty big one. IMO. Camargo is 8 years younger. You're also assuming that 2018 was a career year for him, which may or may not be the case. At this point, we don't have Donaldson anyway. Whether we do or not remains to be seen. I can't decide whether the extended free agency is a good or bad sign for the Braves. My real hope is that Riley claims 3rd for the long haul. If you sign JD, that essentially blocks Riley, and with Pache and Waters on the way, he'll not have a real shot in the outfield either. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
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Post by littlebeast1 on Jan 11, 2020 8:32:40 GMT -5
What’s really interesting is that we basically signed JD last year as a one year stopgap for Riley. So, why not just continue with that plan? Sure, Riley struggled down the stretch but he also showed flashes of why the organization was so high on him. I’m ready to give him the full time chance and would rather see AA bring in an OF who can bridge the gap to Pache or Waters. Castellanos seems to be the better way to go.
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Post by keystone61 on Jan 11, 2020 8:35:23 GMT -5
Last year was probably the best season Badhaircut had left in him. I'd be surprised to see him repeat that.
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Post by Drkirby on Jan 11, 2020 8:57:13 GMT -5
Last year was probably the best season Badhaircut had left in him. I'd be surprised to see him repeat that. X2 this. I’d put good money on it. |
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Post by littlebeast1 on Jan 11, 2020 9:22:20 GMT -5
If I were AA, I'd offer JD 2/52 with a 3rd year option - take it or leave it. He’d leave it and that would be fine. I’d go sign Castellanos and work out a trade with Cleveland for Clevinger.
RF Acuña
2B Albies
1B Freeman
LF Castellanos
3B Riley
SS Swanson
C d’Arnaud
CF Inciarte
SP Soroka
SP Clevinger
SP Fried
SP Hamels
SP Foltynewicz
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Post by brady2705 on Jan 11, 2020 9:33:57 GMT -5
If I were AA, I'd offer JD 2/52 with a 3rd year option - take it or leave it. He’d leave it and that would be fine. I’d go sign Castellanos and work out a trade with Cleveland for Clevinger. RF Acuña 2B Albies 1B Freeman LF Castellanos 3B Riley SS Swanson C d’Arnaud CF Inciarte SP Soroka SP Clevinger SP Fried SP Hamels SP Foltynewicz This! Only thing I would add is trade out Ender, shift Acuna to CF for the next 1-2 years, and resign Hamilton as CF depth and PR on the bench. That allows Castellanos to play RF (the last thing I want is him having to learn ANOTHER position ... I don't think he's good enough to go from RF to LF without issues). That lets us keep the DuKakis platoon in LF, which I think will be more productive than Ender in CF, and easier to replace when one of Pache/Waters proves ready ... Whichever one we don't have to trade for Clevinger. |
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Post by littlebeast1 on Jan 11, 2020 9:40:21 GMT -5
If I were AA, I'd offer JD 2/52 with a 3rd year option - take it or leave it. He’d leave it and that would be fine. I’d go sign Castellanos and work out a trade with Cleveland for Clevinger. RF Acuña 2B Albies 1B Freeman LF Castellanos 3B Riley SS Swanson C d’Arnaud CF Inciarte SP Soroka SP Clevinger SP Fried SP Hamels SP Foltynewicz This! Only thing I would add is trade out Ender, shift Acuna to CF for the next 1-2 years, and resign Hamilton as CF depth and PR on the bench. That allows Castellanos to play RF (the last thing I want is him having to learn ANOTHER position ... I don't think he's good enough to go from RF to LF without issues). That lets us keep the DuKakis platoon in LF, which I think will be more productive than Ender in CF, and easier to replace when one of Pache/Waters proves ready ... Whichever one we don't have to trade for Clevinger. I’m all for swapping Acuña and Castellanos in the OF - just seems most people think Ronald is more suited for RF. I would keep Ender in CF until Pache is ready. Need his glove IMO. My thought was that Waters would be part of the deal with Cleveland, but with Acuna, Pache and Castellanos as the starting OF in late 20 or 21, he becomes expendable. |
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jan 11, 2020 10:04:37 GMT -5
I don’t agree with that if we’re paying him around $100M. And I’m not sure we’d get that much WAR out of him at this point. In 2018 he had a 1.3 WAR. The same year Camargo had a 3.7 WAR. Yeah JD was hurt, but that’s not an excuse. Come on Uck... you can't make that comment with a straight face. JD played in only 52 games that year with a little over 200 plate appearance's while Camargo played in 134 with over 500. WAR is a cumulative stat, and you know that. |
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Post by keystone61 on Jan 11, 2020 10:42:37 GMT -5
I don’t agree with that if we’re paying him around $100M. And I’m not sure we’d get that much WAR out of him at this point. In 2018 he had a 1.3 WAR. The same year Camargo had a 3.7 WAR. Yeah JD was hurt, but that’s not an excuse. Come on Uck... you can't make that comment with a straight face. JD played in only 52 games that year with a little over 200 plate appearance's while Camargo played in 134 with over 500. WAR is a cumulative stat, and you know that. Yes, and 3 times 1.3 equals 3.9. You're not getting 6 WAR out of Badhaircut again. IMO. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 11, 2020 12:36:21 GMT -5
Come on Uck... you can't make that comment with a straight face. JD played in only 52 games that year with a little over 200 plate appearance's while Camargo played in 134 with over 500. WAR is a cumulative stat, and you know that. Yes, and 3 times 1.3 equals 3.9. You're not getting 6 WAR out of Badhaircut again. IMO. Did you really just argue that what JD did in his first 200 at-bats would be exactly what he would have done in his next 200...and his next 200...and his next 200? |
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