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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Feb 3, 2019 17:07:16 GMT -5
You disagree? Someone needs to learn what surplus value is. I know you've cited a few trades as proof that surplus value is the method teams are using, but is it really very universal? I feel like most trades aren't lined up that way these days. I could be totally wrong, I admit, but I'd like to see GMs talking about it and proof that this is how most deals get done now.
I do know that both Acuna and Camargo are better overall baseball players than Inciarte, and so is JTR. Their WARS have to count for something in that surplus value stuff if I remember correctly.
Inciarte is on average a 2.6 WAR player per year.
According to fWAR (The only one that matters) he's a 2.9 WAR player, the last two years and a 3.2 war player his first year with the Braves. So, he's a 28-year old 3 WAR player. He's also extremely affordable, and for multiple years. It isn't just the WAR the player puts up. How much is he paid? How long is he under contract? Those things matter. If Inciarte fulfills the rest of his contract he'll make $29 million over the next 4 years. If he's a 3 WAR player going forward his value will be $90 million. 3 WAR X $9m. - $29m = $79 million. JTR is between $60-70 million in surplus. Plus you have the advantage of having Inciarte for 4 years, while JTR is only guaranteed for 2 years. Is it universal? No, it isn't, but the teams that use it typically get the better end of the deal.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Feb 3, 2019 17:07:51 GMT -5
Not sure surplus value brings fans to park, think a lot of folks come to see home boys like Swanson whether they always succeed or not It does.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Feb 3, 2019 17:10:39 GMT -5
It is surplus, and if you did that deal you'd be throwing away money. Inciarte could garner a whole lot more in a trade than JTR. Plus, by moving Acuna to CF you'd be hurting his value. Surplus value is the way GM's are thinking nowadays. It would be foolhardy to think of trades with any other filter. Also, think back to how many times people complained about Acuna's LF defense. You think it's gonna somehow improve moving to CF? To add to that, if people complained about Acuna's LF defense, imagine how much worse Camargo's defense will be. Acuna is 20 years old. He has a ton of athletic talent, I think it's completely fair to assume he's going to improve. And we haven't seen Camargo play the OF yet so none of us have a clue one way or the other. He's also athletic so I expect him to be average at worst. He's not fleet footed but an OFer can make up for that by getting good jumps and good reads.
If we could trade Inciarte straight up for JTR I'd do it in a heartbeat and take my chances on our two young athletes in the OF. The guy to worry about is grandpa in RF. We already know what we have there defensively, and it ain't good no sir.
I agree, he could certainly improve his LF defense, but CF is a different animal altogether. If we're being realistic, though, AA has stated he wants to build a strong defensive team, substituting Acuna/Inciarte for Camargo/Inciarte doesn't really achieve that goal.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 3, 2019 18:09:12 GMT -5
I know you've cited a few trades as proof that surplus value is the method teams are using, but is it really very universal? I feel like most trades aren't lined up that way these days. I could be totally wrong, I admit, but I'd like to see GMs talking about it and proof that this is how most deals get done now.
I do know that both Acuna and Camargo are better overall baseball players than Inciarte, and so is JTR. Their WARS have to count for something in that surplus value stuff if I remember correctly.
Inciarte is on average a 2.6 WAR player per year.
According to fWAR (The only one that matters) he's a 2.9 WAR player, the last two years and a 3.2 war player his first year with the Braves. So, he's a 28-year old 3 WAR player. He's also extremely affordable, and for multiple years. It isn't just the WAR the player puts up. How much is he paid? How long is he under contract? Those things matter. If Inciarte fulfills the rest of his contract he'll make $29 million over the next 4 years. If he's a 3 WAR player going forward his value will be $90 million. 3 WAR X $9m. - $29m = $79 million. JTR is between $60-70 million in surplus. Plus you have the advantage of having Inciarte for 4 years, while JTR is only guaranteed for 2 years. Is it universal? No, it isn't, but the teams that use it typically get the better end of the deal. Ender was a 1.9 and a 2.4 WAR player his first two seasons. Why are we disregarding that?
Arguably those two years would be better comparisons to Camargo and Acuna because it was their first year(s) in the league.
So I would rather have Camargo in LF, Acuna in CF and JTR for two years, then still have Camargo and Acuna for many years after that, than have Inciarte for a bunch of years.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 3, 2019 18:11:56 GMT -5
Acuna is 20 years old. He has a ton of athletic talent, I think it's completely fair to assume he's going to improve. And we haven't seen Camargo play the OF yet so none of us have a clue one way or the other. He's also athletic so I expect him to be average at worst. He's not fleet footed but an OFer can make up for that by getting good jumps and good reads.
If we could trade Inciarte straight up for JTR I'd do it in a heartbeat and take my chances on our two young athletes in the OF. The guy to worry about is grandpa in RF. We already know what we have there defensively, and it ain't good no sir.
I agree, he could certainly improve his LF defense, but CF is a different animal altogether. If we're being realistic, though, AA has stated he wants to build a strong defensive team, substituting Acuna/Inciarte for Camargo/Inciarte doesn't really achieve that goal. I played all three OF positions during my playing days, and CF was by far my favorite of the three and the one I played the best. You get a better and quicker read off of every single ball hit when you're in CF. It is tougher because there's more room to cover, but Acuna is athletic enough I believe he'll adjust just fine.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Feb 3, 2019 20:17:49 GMT -5
I know what surplus value is.
It's just my opinion that a team going in for a chanpionship run would trade Inciarte straight up for 2 years of JTR.
I don't think every team in the league in every situation is guided only by their surplus value slide rule.
Can't prove it any more than anyone else can disprove it, but I don't think there's any way in hell the Marlins trade JTR for Inciarte straight up.
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Post by keystone61 on Feb 4, 2019 11:15:49 GMT -5
I know what surplus value is. It's just my opinion that a team going in for a chanpionship run would trade Inciarte straight up for 2 years of JTR. I don't think every team in the league in every situation is guided only by their surplus value slide rule. Can't prove it any more than anyone else can disprove it, but I don't think there's any way in hell the Marlins trade JTR for Inciarte straight up. I agree, there's no way the Marlins would (or should) do that. I'm not particularly eager to trade Inciarte, anyway. He's a big part of this team. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's untouchable or anything like that, but he's a guy who does a lot for a team on and off the field, IMO. I'm not sure that stats fully cover his value to THIS team. It's kinda like when you've got a used car with 250,000 miles on it. You know the car inside and out, and you know that it's still a good car, so it's worth more to you to use than it is to sell it to somebody else.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 4, 2019 12:57:04 GMT -5
I know what surplus value is. It's just my opinion that a team going in for a chanpionship run would trade Inciarte straight up for 2 years of JTR. I don't think every team in the league in every situation is guided only by their surplus value slide rule. Can't prove it any more than anyone else can disprove it, but I don't think there's any way in hell the Marlins trade JTR for Inciarte straight up. I agree, there's no way the Marlins would (or should) do that. I'm not particularly eager to trade Inciarte, anyway. He's a big part of this team. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's untouchable or anything like that, but he's a guy who does a lot for a team on and off the field, IMO. I'm not sure that stats fully cover his value to THIS team. It's kinda like when you've got a used car with 250,000 miles on it. You know the car inside and out, and you know that it's still a good car, so it's worth more to you to use than it is to sell it to somebody else. Cars with 250,000 miles never win races.
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Post by keystone61 on Feb 4, 2019 13:26:53 GMT -5
I agree, there's no way the Marlins would (or should) do that. I'm not particularly eager to trade Inciarte, anyway. He's a big part of this team. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's untouchable or anything like that, but he's a guy who does a lot for a team on and off the field, IMO. I'm not sure that stats fully cover his value to THIS team. It's kinda like when you've got a used car with 250,000 miles on it. You know the car inside and out, and you know that it's still a good car, so it's worth more to you to use than it is to sell it to somebody else. Cars with 250,000 miles never win races. On paper, they don't, but on the track they do. Of course, I do understand that you prefer paper.......
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 4, 2019 13:41:42 GMT -5
Cars with 250,000 miles never win races. On paper, they don't, but on the track they do. Of course, I do understand that you prefer paper....... Actually no, I'm a 50/50 guy. I was one of the last to buy into advanced stats, I had plenty of arguments on the old site until I caved in and started accepting they have some merit. A person needs both stats and the eye test.
You're giving into the advanced stats a little as time goes by.
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akod
Low A Farmhand
Posts: 714
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Post by akod on Feb 4, 2019 14:00:59 GMT -5
I know what surplus value is. It's just my opinion that a team going in for a chanpionship run would trade Inciarte straight up for 2 years of JTR. I don't think every team in the league in every situation is guided only by their surplus value slide rule. Can't prove it any more than anyone else can disprove it, but I don't think there's any way in hell the Marlins trade JTR for Inciarte straight up. I agree, there's no way the Marlins would (or should) do that. I'm not particularly eager to trade Inciarte, anyway. He's a big part of this team. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's untouchable or anything like that, but he's a guy who does a lot for a team on and off the field, IMO. I'm not sure that stats fully cover his value to THIS team. It's kinda like when you've got a used car with 250,000 miles on it. You know the car inside and out, and you know that it's still a good car, so it's worth more to you to use than it is to sell it to somebody else. If we start off bad and he starts off good I’m all for moving him while his value is high. Otherwise I wouldn’t mind moving him next offseason. Christian Pache is all but untouchable for me because we know we at least get Ender’s defense and on base abilities with him. Likely a little better average but the jury is out as far getting on base and developing power though signs of advancement showed last season. Point is I think we have an even more discounted Ender in the minors already which allows us to save a little bit of cash and gain assets. This also keeps Acuna in a corner outfield spot where we hope he can adjust to a plus fielder. What would really make me jizz my pants is if Waters takes off this year and his skills have to move to a corner as well, talk about some incredible defense patrolling the outfield for our young staff.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 4, 2019 14:10:54 GMT -5
I agree, there's no way the Marlins would (or should) do that. I'm not particularly eager to trade Inciarte, anyway. He's a big part of this team. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's untouchable or anything like that, but he's a guy who does a lot for a team on and off the field, IMO. I'm not sure that stats fully cover his value to THIS team. It's kinda like when you've got a used car with 250,000 miles on it. You know the car inside and out, and you know that it's still a good car, so it's worth more to you to use than it is to sell it to somebody else. If we start off bad and he starts off good I’m all for moving him while his value is high. Otherwise I wouldn’t mind moving him next offseason. Christian Pache is all but untouchable for me because we know we at least get Ender’s defense and on base abilities with him. Likely a little better average but the jury is out as far getting on base and developing power though signs of advancement showed last season. Point is I think we have an even more discounted Ender in the minors already which allows us to save a little bit of cash and gain assets. This also keeps Acuna in a corner outfield spot where we hope he can adjust to a plus fielder. What would really make me jizz my pants is if Waters takes off this year and his skills have to move to a corner as well, talk about some incredible defense patrolling the outfield for our young staff. Thanks for mentioning the Pache factor, I do agree that makes trading Ender that much smarter. The sooner we trade Ender the more value he'll have because he's fairly cost controlled for three more years plus the team option to extend/buyout right now. He's due to get $5M this year, $7M in 2020 and $8M in 2021, plus the $9M team option for 2022 (or the $1M buyout option).
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Post by mauibravefan on Feb 4, 2019 14:58:36 GMT -5
If we start off bad and he starts off good I’m all for moving him while his value is high. Otherwise I wouldn’t mind moving him next offseason. Christian Pache is all but untouchable for me because we know we at least get Ender’s defense and on base abilities with him. Likely a little better average but the jury is out as far getting on base and developing power though signs of advancement showed last season. Point is I think we have an even more discounted Ender in the minors already which allows us to save a little bit of cash and gain assets. This also keeps Acuna in a corner outfield spot where we hope he can adjust to a plus fielder. What would really make me jizz my pants is if Waters takes off this year and his skills have to move to a corner as well, talk about some incredible defense patrolling the outfield for our young staff. Thanks for mentioning the Pache factor, I do agree that makes trading Ender that much smarter. The sooner we trade Ender the more value he'll have because he's fairly cost controlled for three more years plus the team option to extend/buyout right now. He's due to get $5M this year, $7M in 2020 and $8M in 2021, plus the $9M team option for 2022 (or the $1M buyout option). Ender has proven value to this team in many ways,at a ridiculously low price. I'm not sure trading him with the hopes that our new Enders will pan out is the best move at this point for a team we want to contend.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 4, 2019 15:08:36 GMT -5
Thanks for mentioning the Pache factor, I do agree that makes trading Ender that much smarter. The sooner we trade Ender the more value he'll have because he's fairly cost controlled for three more years plus the team option to extend/buyout right now. He's due to get $5M this year, $7M in 2020 and $8M in 2021, plus the $9M team option for 2022 (or the $1M buyout option). Ender has proven value to this team in many ways,at a ridiculously low price. I'm not sure trading him with the hopes that our new Enders will pan out is the best move at this point for a team we want to contend. At $4M and $5M yes, but to me its not as cut and dried at $7M, $8M and $9M per year.
I'll take my chances on Pache. Especially if moving Ender can get us a good player, and it should. I'm certainly not saying he's a bad player. To me he's just expendable, and the sooner we do it the more he'll bring in return.
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Post by keystone61 on Feb 4, 2019 15:11:46 GMT -5
Ender has proven value to this team in many ways,at a ridiculously low price. I'm not sure trading him with the hopes that our new Enders will pan out is the best move at this point for a team we want to contend. At $4M and $5M yes, but to me its not as cut and dried at $7M, $8M and $9M per year.
I'll take my chances on Pache. Especially if moving Ender can get us a good player, and it should. I'm certainly not saying he's a bad player. To me he's just expendable, and the sooner we do it the more he'll bring in return.
Yeah, let's see how forgiving you are when Pache comes up too soon and hits a buck and a quarter.
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