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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 17, 2018 18:42:56 GMT -5
Ya, but there’s debate before deals are done. What GM goes out and makes deals without a back and forth? An unemployed one. Or the Faillies GM. Exactly! And the owner is just as dumb, talking about being stupid with money. Ya, and that’s why you’re the phollies.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 17, 2018 18:56:28 GMT -5
Exactly! And the owner is just as dumb, talking about being stupid with money. Ya, and that’s why you’re the phollies. I'm just hoping they're all there as long as possible, I don't want this exquisite form of entertainment taken away!
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 17, 2018 19:00:01 GMT -5
Exactly! And the owner is just as dumb, talking about being stupid with money. Ya, and that’s why you’re the phollies. I'm just hoping they're all there as long as possible, I don't want this exquisite form of entertainment taken away! They could sell the team, replace the GM and the manager and nothing will change. They’re cursed.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 17, 2018 19:21:01 GMT -5
Catcher: Yasmani Grandal – 4-years, $72 million (Braves might be able to get him cheaper, but probably not much.) Outfield: Eddie Rosario – Sean Newcomb, Drew Waters, Alex Jackson (Shot in the dark here. Braves with a slight overpay, based on my surplus calculations. Braves could just as easily sign Michael Brantley, but then all my work trading for Greinke goes down the drain, cause that wouldn’t happen if they signed Brantley. If the Braves do go that route, then just slide Newk into Greinke’s spot in the rotation, which, if I’m being honest, is the much more likely scenario.) 1. CF - Inciarte 2. RF - Rosario 3. LF - Acuna 4. Ca - Grandal 5. 1B - Freeman 6. 2B - Albies 7. SS - Swanson 8. 3B – Camargo Batting Order: 1. Albies 2. Acuna 3. Freeman 4. Rosario 5. Grandal 6. Camargo 7. Inciarte 8. Swanson Bench: Kole Calhoun - Julio Teheran (Even contract swap.) Ca – Flowers OF – Duvall IF – Culberson UT – Calhoun UT – Riley (Braves may see which 2 of 3 are ready to go after ST. I think Swanson will be Swanson and the Braves will hedge their bets by having Riley on the 25-man roster. If Riley isn't ready, then replace him with Ruiz.) Rotation: Zach Greinke + $35 million – Joey Wentz, Kolby Allard + lower prospect (Big trade here. Greinke has very little surplus value without the DBacks eating a significant portion of his salary. It doesn’t seem like the DBacks view a trade as a salary dump, so they’ll want prospects in return. This deal puts Greinke’s AAV at $24.8 million. Might still be a bit too rich for the Braves blood.) 1. Folty 2. Greinke 3. Gausman 4. Soroka 5. Touki Bullpen: Joe Kelly – 2-years, $15 million Jeurys Familia – 3-years, $30 million (Both guys are solid, but not spectacular. The big thing about both is that they strike out a lot of batters, which is great. I believe that if the Braves go bigger here, by going after a closer, or a guy like Ottavino, they’ll only get one, instead of getting 2 here. There are others, like Miller, Herrera, Soria, etc., that are also available. They are almost all interchangeable, but I prefer these two.) RP – Fried RP – O’Day RP – Venters RP – Kelly SU – Vizcaino SU – Familia CL – Minter All deals: Yasmani Grandal – 4-years, $72 million Eddie Rosario for Sean Newcomb, Drew Waters, Alex Jackson Kole Calhoun for Julio Teheran Zach Greinke + $35 million for Joey Wentz, Kolby Allard + lower prospect Joe Kelly – 2-years, $15 million Jeurys Familia – 3-years, $30 million peteorr I don't see those moves as bad necessarily. I appreciate the out of the box thinking. I don't think the money works out there does it? You are adding Greinke, Calhoun, Grandal, Kelly, Familia, and Rosario, while the only salary you are subtracting is Teheran.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 17, 2018 19:37:22 GMT -5
Catcher: Yasmani Grandal – 4-years, $72 million (Braves might be able to get him cheaper, but probably not much.) Outfield: Eddie Rosario – Sean Newcomb, Drew Waters, Alex Jackson (Shot in the dark here. Braves with a slight overpay, based on my surplus calculations. Braves could just as easily sign Michael Brantley, but then all my work trading for Greinke goes down the drain, cause that wouldn’t happen if they signed Brantley. If the Braves do go that route, then just slide Newk into Greinke’s spot in the rotation, which, if I’m being honest, is the much more likely scenario.) 1. CF - Inciarte 2. RF - Rosario 3. LF - Acuna 4. Ca - Grandal 5. 1B - Freeman 6. 2B - Albies 7. SS - Swanson 8. 3B – Camargo Batting Order: 1. Albies 2. Acuna 3. Freeman 4. Rosario 5. Grandal 6. Camargo 7. Inciarte 8. Swanson Bench: Kole Calhoun - Julio Teheran (Even contract swap.) Ca – Flowers OF – Duvall IF – Culberson UT – Calhoun UT – Riley (Braves may see which 2 of 3 are ready to go after ST. I think Swanson will be Swanson and the Braves will hedge their bets by having Riley on the 25-man roster. If Riley isn't ready, then replace him with Ruiz.) Rotation: Zach Greinke + $35 million – Joey Wentz, Kolby Allard + lower prospect (Big trade here. Greinke has very little surplus value without the DBacks eating a significant portion of his salary. It doesn’t seem like the DBacks view a trade as a salary dump, so they’ll want prospects in return. This deal puts Greinke’s AAV at $24.8 million. Might still be a bit too rich for the Braves blood.) 1. Folty 2. Greinke 3. Gausman 4. Soroka 5. Touki Bullpen: Joe Kelly – 2-years, $15 million Jeurys Familia – 3-years, $30 million (Both guys are solid, but not spectacular. The big thing about both is that they strike out a lot of batters, which is great. I believe that if the Braves go bigger here, by going after a closer, or a guy like Ottavino, they’ll only get one, instead of getting 2 here. There are others, like Miller, Herrera, Soria, etc., that are also available. They are almost all interchangeable, but I prefer these two.) RP – Fried RP – O’Day RP – Venters RP – Kelly SU – Vizcaino SU – Familia CL – Minter All deals: Yasmani Grandal – 4-years, $72 million Eddie Rosario for Sean Newcomb, Drew Waters, Alex Jackson Kole Calhoun for Julio Teheran Zach Greinke + $35 million for Joey Wentz, Kolby Allard + lower prospect Joe Kelly – 2-years, $15 million Jeurys Familia – 3-years, $30 million peteorr I don't see those moves as bad necessarily. I appreciate the out of the box thinking. I don't think the money works out there does it? You are adding Greinke, Calhoun, Grandal, Kelly, Familia, and Rosario, while the only salary you are subtracting is Teheran. AA recently stated the Braves have $60 million to spend, so I spent it If extensions are a worry, most of those deals end after 3 years, so extensions are definitely still in play. One thing I love is that the Braves didn’t lose any of their major prospects (which has to be a major goal for the FO), and all those deals are within the realm of possibility.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 17, 2018 20:16:15 GMT -5
I'm just hoping they're all there as long as possible, I don't want this exquisite form of entertainment taken away! They could sell the team, replace the GM and the manager and nothing will change. They’re cursed. I sure hope so.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 20, 2018 1:07:48 GMT -5
I want to see what we are working with and try to further elaborate on my ideal offseason. What figure will the payroll roughly be at in 2019? Here are the contracts currently on the books:https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/atlanta-braves-salaries-and-contracts.shtml
Freeman: $21M Teheran: $11.17M O'Day: $9M Inciarte: $5.7M Flowers: $4M Vizcaino: $4.8M Venters: $1.5M Gausman: $9.2M Sam Freeman: $1.5M Dan Winkler: $1.6M Folty: $5.5M Duvall: $3.1M Culberson: $1.4M = $79.47M -Duvall DFA $3.1M -Venters DFA $1.5M -Sam Freeman DFA $1.5M =$73.37M Does this look accurate to everyone? Does anyone not agree with my DFA decisions? ---------------------------- I will add the major league minimum players to the payroll later. Sign Donaldson a little more than $20M Sign Brantley/McCutchen a little less than $20M Sign Lucroy $5M =$45M
$73.37M +$45.00M =118.37M 13 players
Dansby: $.6M Biddle: $.6M Camargo: $.6M Newcomb: $.6M Albies: $.6M Minter: $.6M Carle: $.6M Acuna: $.6M Soroka: $.6M Fried: $.6M Gohara: $.6M Sobotka: $.6M Touki: $.6M Allard: $.6M Wilson: $.6M Wright: $.6M = $9.6M
$118.37M 13 players + 9.60M 16 players =$127.97M 29 players
This leaves the Braves with $30M to spend? I assume most of the rest of the players will be paid the major league minimum. There would still be money remaining for a healthy salary or two. Trade Teheran and you can save some money. Trading Camargo won't save you money, however he is a trade asset. Signing Donaldson would only make sense if you get fair trade value for Camargo. Could another team be sold on him being a ~3WAR player who is paid the league minimum? Could the Braves trade Camargo + Inciarte for an OF upgrade + either prospect or reliever? You would make a separate move for a reliever if it is a prospect included in the trade. You've added the new OF salary while subtracting that of Inciarte. You still have enough dollars and prospects to trade for Kaloober if you wish.
=$127.97M 29 players +$ 15.00M Kaloober =$142.97M 30 players + $6M 10 ML minimum players =$148.97 40 players This total includes Inciarte's salary and not that of the player who he would be traded for. Camargo would be replaced by another major league minimum player. So potentially add some salary for that trade. Add salary if any of the 10 players you add are not major league minimum salary. Save some money for the trade deadline?
The current roster includes Teheran's salary. If you could dump Teheran's salary it might be possible to trade for Greinke instead of Kaloober who would require less to trade for given his salary.
The offseason includes the addition of Greinke, Kaloober, or perhaps a different ace pitcher. You would also get Donaldson, Brantley/McCutchen, Lucroy, and an OF upgrade over Inciarte. You would subtract Inciarte, Camargo, likely Teheran, and whoever goes in the trade for the ace pitcher.
You could substitute McCutchen for Brantley if you wish granted they would cost the same. McCutchen didn't play as well as Brantley in 2018, but historically he has played better and remained healthier. The more I think about it, the more I might prefer McCutchen. At the end of the day you take whichever player will sign for ~$18M a season.
Donaldson: He had a .920 OPS with the Indians in 50 AB. That's enough for me to declare that he is back. He has a career .874 OPS (140 wRC+) as well as plus defense. He'd be a great signing for a year or two. He probably only wants a one year deal anyway so that he can get back on the market to get the large contract that he wanted to get this offseason. Donaldson is an upgrade over Camargo and a middle of the order bat. People want someone who can hit LHP and he certainly can.
Brantley/McCutchen: Brantley is coming off of a 3.5fWAR and all-star season. He previously had another 3.5 WAR season and a 6.5 WAR season. Brantley crushes RHP. Given his poor defensive history and sub .700 OPS against LHP, you might want to platoon him. Should the Braves pay him ~$18M or so given his poor defense, batting split, and past injury history (haven't looked into this, he was obviously injured in 2016&2017)? I can work under the assumption that the injuries will not recur. After all he was healthy in 2018.
McCutchen: McCutchen is a career .859 hitter who has been healthy his entire career. He hits LHP better than RHP if that is what you are after. He has been good against RHP as well though in his career. McCutchen might be the better pick over Brantley in general. I definitely lean towards McCutchen if the Braves trade Inciarte. The Braves would need McCutchen at leadoff.
Lucroy: He hasn't been good the past two season and also was not good in 2015. He should come cheap because of this. I remember a few years ago Nightman really wanted Lucroy. Others probably did as well. I would imagine other teams wanted him. Lucroy is a good defender according to Fangraphs. Despite the three recent seasons of poor performance Lucroy still has a career slightly above league average wRC+ of 104. Lucroy might not play well. He'll log innings though. There is massive potential here and Lucroy will still be 32 when the season starts. Put him in a great lineup and hopefully he can thrive again. If he doesn't that stinks, but you still have a catcher who is likely to be a plus defender.
Ace or #1 starter: not much to say here since I don't know precisely who it would be who the Braves would trade for. Anyhow, the Braves would get a rotation upgrade.
To recap the Braves would have:
LF McCutchen R CF Acuna R 1B Freeman L 3B Donaldson R RF Traded for OF upgrade 2B Albies B C Lucroy R SS Swanson R
Rotation traded for ace Folty Gausman TBD TBD
The last two spots are TBD because some young pitchers would have to be traded for the ace. There could be some competition here as well.
Final thoughts: The bullpen would be a work in progress. You might need to add players who earn more than the minimum here. You would still need to be stingy in this area. This would be a potential World Series winning team. You wouldn't lose out on too much long term in order to make this happen. The outfield defense wouldn't be the best. It should prove satisfactory enough though. That lineup would murder in the National League.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 20, 2018 2:51:56 GMT -5
peteorrTo aid in your effort, AA recently stated that the Braves had, roughly, $60 million to spend. If he's accounting for arbitration raises, which I believe he his, and the payroll is sitting at $73 million, that means the payroll will probably be around $130 to $135 million.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 20, 2018 7:37:14 GMT -5
peteorr To aid in your effort, AA recently stated that the Braves had, roughly, $60 million to spend. If he's accounting for arbitration raises, which I believe he his, and the payroll is sitting at $73 million, that means the payroll will probably be around $130 to $135 million. I spent too much then. Also if the total payroll is going to be that low, we are going to have trouble competing with the Phillies and Nationals who will have much more money at their disposal. Smarts can only go so far (and that is assuming that our front office is that much smarter than theirs).
That total should increase to some degree come 2019. I was hoping the Braves would be at $160M.
I think everything would still work out granted you can get rid of Teheran and trade for Kluber or an even cheaper front line starter. Greinke would be out of the question if the payroll is going to be as low as $130-135M
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