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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 28, 2021 21:28:44 GMT -5
I think he had one other 3.9 WAR season too. I think given their ages, the fact that Semein has out warred Freddie over the last three seasons Combined says a lot, I would think that helped him a lot even though he doesn’t have the steady career long production Freddie has had. Recent history carries a lot weight especially when it’s as big of a sample size as three years.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 28, 2021 21:29:30 GMT -5
Semien also had a 3.9 WAR season in 2018. I think given their ages, the fact that Semein has out warred Freddie over the last four seasons combined says a lot, I would think that helped him a lot even though he doesn’t have the steady career long production Freddie has had. Recent history carries a lot weight especially when it’s as big of a sample size as three years. Semien has accumulated 19.3 WAR and Freddie 16.9 over the last four years.
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 28, 2021 21:31:10 GMT -5
Wish I were as confident as you that Freddie stays. I’m thinking somebody throws $200 at him.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 28, 2021 21:37:11 GMT -5
Wish I were as confident as you that Freddie stays. I’m thinking somebody throws $200 at him. I edited my post too, showing Semien has actually out warred Freddie 19.3 to 16.9 over the last 4 years combined, that's a significant recent history sample size.
It wouldn't make any sense for other teams to offer Freddie any more than about $30M per year, they all have to be worried about him regressing. We have an emotional attachment that allows us to get crazy and not worry as much about the regression. The worry is still there, and personally I'm not concerned about that, but if he does turn into Albert Pujols then at least he got us a championship and was the face of the franchise for 15 years. Imagine how Angels fans feel about Pujols compared to Cardinals fans. If he had stayed with the Cardinals and regressed they would have been disappointed but still loved him for what he DID do. Angels management and fans are like man that Pujols turd just KILLED us.
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 28, 2021 22:03:22 GMT -5
Wish I were as confident as you that Freddie stays. I’m thinking somebody throws $200 at him. I edited my post too, showing Semien has actually out warred Freddie 19.3 to 16.9 over the last 4 years combined, that's a significant recent history sample size.
It wouldn't make any sense for other teams to offer Freddie any more than about $30M per year, they all have to be worried about him regressing. We have an emotional attachment that allows us to get crazy and not worry as much about the regression. The worry is still there, and personally I'm not concerned about that, but if he does turn into Albert Pujols then at least he got us a championship and was the face of the franchise for 15 years. Imagine how Angels fans feel about Pujols compared to Cardinals fans. If he had stayed with the Cardinals and regressed they would have been disappointed but still loved him for what he DID do. Angels management and fans are like man that Pujols turd just KILLED us. Isn’t it expected that a good shortstop will outwar a first baseman?
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 29, 2021 0:49:07 GMT -5
I edited my post too, showing Semien has actually out warred Freddie 19.3 to 16.9 over the last 4 years combined, that's a significant recent history sample size.
It wouldn't make any sense for other teams to offer Freddie any more than about $30M per year, they all have to be worried about him regressing. We have an emotional attachment that allows us to get crazy and not worry as much about the regression. The worry is still there, and personally I'm not concerned about that, but if he does turn into Albert Pujols then at least he got us a championship and was the face of the franchise for 15 years. Imagine how Angels fans feel about Pujols compared to Cardinals fans. If he had stayed with the Cardinals and regressed they would have been disappointed but still loved him for what he DID do. Angels management and fans are like man that Pujols turd just KILLED us. Isn’t it expected that a good shortstop will outwar a first baseman? I really don't know. First base has been more of a power hitting position so they gain OPS/WAR that way for what they might lose in the field. Just my instinct, no clue about the actual details. The defensive side of WAR has always annoyed me, it seems to be nuts.
The point is they are both really good elite players over the past four seasons, similar age, one just got $25M per year so I don't think that means the other one is going to get more than $30M year.
I could be wrong, who knows, just stating how I'm rationalizing why I don't think Semiens contract means Freddie might get more than $30M per year.
I just spent one minute eyeball comparing the top 20 SS WARs versus the top 20 1B WARs for this season and it looks like the difference is basically 1 WAR between the two, SS's being higher, so not a real significant difference. Over the last four years it would make Freddie and Semien pretty similar in WAR.
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Post by TomlinFoolery on Nov 29, 2021 17:13:14 GMT -5
Still thinking 6/185 gets him re-upped in atlanta, and I'll stand with that unless something happens otherwise. 6/185 is plenty enough. If he truly does desire to stay in atlanta what can he do with say, $33.4 million per year that he cant do with $30.8333 million per year? By the time taxes are through, there isnt much of a difference. It certainly wouldn't hurt him in anyway financially.
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 29, 2021 17:46:19 GMT -5
Still thinking 6/185 gets him re-upped in atlanta, and I'll stand with that unless something happens otherwise. 6/185 is plenty enough. If he truly does desire to stay in atlanta what can he do with say, $33.4 million per year that he cant do with $30.8333 million per year? By the time taxes are through, there isnt much of a difference. It certainly wouldn't hurt him in anyway financially. With the numbers that some of these "poor baseball teams" are paying guys, I don't know if he'll take that or not. The Dodgers need a hitter.
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Post by SuperBrave on Nov 30, 2021 18:10:25 GMT -5
I don't like our chances of re-signing Freddie when the Dodgers have deep pockets.
Freddie won't get as much from the Braves, so obviously it will be up to Freddie on how badly he wants to stay.
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 30, 2021 18:39:28 GMT -5
I don't like our chances of re-signing Freddie when the Dodgers have deep pockets. Freddie won't get as much from the Braves, so obviously it will be up to Freddie on how badly he wants to stay. Here’s the thing. If Freddie signs elsewhere and continues to be a durable, consistent force, he’ll be fine. If not, for whatever reason, he’ll be treated the worst he’s ever been treated. With the Braves, the fans will be much more forgiving. IMO
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maverick86
Low A Farmhand
2021 World Series Champs
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Post by maverick86 on Nov 30, 2021 18:58:43 GMT -5
6 years $180? Braves can pay that. But Yankees and Dodgers can offer more easily. 6 years $220?
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 30, 2021 19:39:57 GMT -5
I don't like our chances of re-signing Freddie when the Dodgers have deep pockets. Freddie won't get as much from the Braves, so obviously it will be up to Freddie on how badly he wants to stay. Here’s the thing. If Freddie signs elsewhere and continues to be a durable, consistent force, he’ll be fine. If not, for whatever reason, he’ll be treated the worst he’s ever been treated. With the Braves, the fans will be much more forgiving. IMO I said the same thing the other day--if he goes somewhere and goes full Pujols, the fans and team are going to hate him, if he signs with us and regresses he still gets a lot of love for what he DID do. To me other teams have to take that regression risk into factor more than we do. We can't afford it, but if it DOES happen at least we have something to show for what he did accomplish. Consider how Cardinals fans and management feel about Pujols versus how Angels fans and management feel about him. If he stayed in St. Louis and regressed they'd say well that sucks, but we still love you.
And didn't this team just say they won the World Series because of love???!!!!
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Post by keystone61 on Nov 30, 2021 20:01:38 GMT -5
6 years $180? Braves can pay that. But Yankees and Dodgers can offer more easily. 6 years $220? They have both been conspicuously absent thus far, no?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2021 20:16:55 GMT -5
And didn't this team just say they won the World Series because of love???!!!! As for love well, it lasts a short time when Money Talks per the AC/DC song In the end business is business and its all about self love I will go old school on yall - remember the Family Pirates of '79? When the losing started shortly after how long did that family last? The next yr that team slipped back to middle of the pack shortly after they slipped into something worse. Even some ugly stuff like the Pittsburgh drug trials. Where is the love there. And, that was two generations before the crazy money that has gone on this day in time. Even with FA in those days most of the teams if they wanted to could compete unless you had scrooges like Charley Finley and Calvin Griffith as your owners. Remember when Chipper was slowing down a bit his last two yrs here - we still loved him. Another team's fans would not show that love we had for him The injuries is what slowed him down at that point - he had to be rested some at the end but we loved him still I think Freddie will be gone, just too much money to turn down - and who knows how many yrs he will be offered. Plan B - get ready. Get Ready - I know you all hate me for this but I begrudgingly am getting ready
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 30, 2021 20:34:14 GMT -5
Plan B for me is to hurl myself down the open elevator shaft.
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