|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jun 24, 2021 23:42:28 GMT -5
Reds announcers said tonight that this was going to be a "get well weekend."
When you're watching a wreck start, it's really easy to see what the end result is going to be. We’ve been slipping and sliding trying to save it, but if Acuna goes down for even just two weeks we’re going right over the side of a straight down cliff.
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jun 25, 2021 0:35:23 GMT -5
I have to apologize to Pablo, I've been stating his recent pinch hitting numbers incorrectly--he is actually 1 for his last 22 and 2 for his last 28.
|
|
hokiedan
AA prospect
Hokie - Anthropomorphic turkey-like bird
Posts: 1,384
Likes: 245
|
Post by hokiedan on Jun 25, 2021 6:31:53 GMT -5
I have to apologize to Pablo, I've been stating his recent pinch hitting numbers incorrectly--he is actually 1 for his last 22 and 2 for his last 28. Not saying he would have been a savior or an All Star, but with the outfield injuries and the PH woes, in retrospect letting Duvall go was a mistake.
|
|
|
Post by keystone61 on Jun 25, 2021 8:20:11 GMT -5
I guess I'm in the minority, but I think the right managerial and coaching changes are the biggest things this team needs. Other than the obvious benefits of ridding yourself of the incompetence we presently have, all of a sudden guys will realize that sheet just got real, and that people are being held accountable around here. The impact would be huge. IMO.
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jun 25, 2021 8:28:50 GMT -5
I guess I'm in the minority, but I think the right managerial and coaching changes are the biggest things this team needs. Other than the obvious benefits of ridding yourself of the incompetence we presently have, all of a sudden guys will realize that sheet just got real, and that people are being held accountable around here. The impact would be huge. IMO. I agree with that I just gave it a little rest when the players started showing up not caring. Pretty much everybody needs to take a long look in the mirror. I would exclude Acuna but that’s about it. Freddie gets called down for having the long face and moping around the batters box then playing grabass with opponents and not being a better leader. At least the long face is gone and the saggy body language now that he’s hitting. Freddie has always taken good long ABs and battled, for the first fifty or so games he just wanted to get it over with as quick as he could.
|
|
|
Post by keystone61 on Jun 25, 2021 8:54:21 GMT -5
I like your proposal of Chipper as manager, too. He'd be a commanding presence who understands the game inside out. Old enough to have some old school ways, but young enough to make use of analytics, and hopefully smart enough to know the difference.
|
|
|
Post by bourjosgeorge on Jun 25, 2021 9:00:37 GMT -5
I guess I'm in the minority, but I think the right managerial and coaching changes are the biggest things this team needs. Other than the obvious benefits of ridding yourself of the incompetence we presently have, all of a sudden guys will realize that sheet just got real, and that people are being held accountable around here. The impact would be huge. IMO. I agree with that I just gave it a little rest when the players started showing up not caring. Pretty much everybody needs to take a long look in the mirror. I would exclude Acuna but that’s about it. Freddie gets called down for having the long face and moping around the batters box then playing grabass with opponents and not being a better leader. At least the long face is gone and the saggy body language now that he’s hitting. Freddie has always taken good long ABs and battled, for the first fifty or so games he just wanted to get it over with as quick as he could. I agree with yall except I would not exclude Acuna as he is one of worst about striking out while trying to be a glory hawg by homering instead of just meeting the ball and getting a hit. He needs a knot jerked in his hindend sometimes.
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jun 25, 2021 13:31:30 GMT -5
I agree with that I just gave it a little rest when the players started showing up not caring. Pretty much everybody needs to take a long look in the mirror. I would exclude Acuna but that’s about it. Freddie gets called down for having the long face and moping around the batters box then playing grabass with opponents and not being a better leader. At least the long face is gone and the saggy body language now that he’s hitting. Freddie has always taken good long ABs and battled, for the first fifty or so games he just wanted to get it over with as quick as he could. I agree with yall except I would not exclude Acuna as he is one of worst about striking out while trying to be a glory hawg by homering instead of just meeting the ball and getting a hit. He needs a knot jerked in his hindend sometimes. I find it hard to criticize a guy who has a .996 OPS, has driven in 45 runs from the leadoff spot following a very weak bottom half of our lineup, is one of the best players in baseball (he's tied for 2nd in WAR) and is on pace to be an 8 WAR player this year. He has an aggressive nature, but it obviously pays off way more than not.
|
|
|
Post by bourjosgeorge on Jun 25, 2021 13:51:12 GMT -5
I knew that I would hear that from at least one poster on here; actually I thought that I would probably hear it from several. I don't have one bit of problem criticizing him for not being a team player but would rather be an individual player. I am not impressed with individual glory seeking hawgs, no matter how good they can be at times. I am for TEAM players.
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jun 25, 2021 14:00:22 GMT -5
I knew that I would hear that from at least one poster on here; actually I thought that I would probably hear it from several. I don't have one bit of problem criticizing him for not being a team player but would rather be an individual player. I am not impressed with individual glory seeking hawgs, no matter how good they can be at times. I am for TEAM players. You're putting out a very confusing message.
What is he not a team player about?
How is he a glory seeking hawg?
He's very successful driving in runs in a near impossible spot, and he hits for a lot of power, both doubles and home runs. I have a hard time seeing what he's being selfish about or being a glory hawg about. He's had a few times he's failed when we had runners on, just like every player who has ever played the game. Are you saying he's swinging for the fences too much in those spots? I find it hard to agree with that because he pretty much does that all the time, and again, he's successful way more often that not.
I'm not going to get mad at a guy who doesn't come through 100% of the time or isn't a 10 WAR player instead of an 8 WAR player.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Jun 25, 2021 14:00:50 GMT -5
For me to trade anyone, I've got to understand who we replace them with. I would trade my mother, but I want to know a better mom replacement before I do it. I know you know this so don't get me wrong; I am definitely not accusing you of this, but it's easy to say we are done with this guy or that guy, but what is the plan to replace. I am pretty sure we don't have anything better in the pipeline that is ready, and I haven't looked at FA options. Think about this as well... Dansby was tied for 18th in NL MVP voting last season, 20th place amongst all NL players counting the ties, and 9th in MVP candidate WAR using baseball references numbers. (2.7 WAR) I am always for upgrade, but I need to understand plan B Well, to me last year was clearly an outlier year for Dansby. And with all of what he did, he was still just a 1.9 WAR player according to Fangraphs. It's weird how baseball references is always different. In 2019 baseball references called Dansby a 0.9 WAR player while Fangraphs had him at 1.5. The bottom line I think is they aren't far apart for his career WAR. Baseball References has him at 7.3 and Fangraphs at 6.5. That's in the neighborhood of about a 1.6 WAR average per year if you use the 7.3 career WAR and give him about 4.5 seasons of big league time.
You can take every single stat known to mankind and amongst shortstops during Dansby's career he ranks between 15-20th in everything. To me that's about as mediocre as you can get. He had the one elite season with the glove, and to me he hasn't been all that great defensively since then. To me he is as average as you could possibly get.I don't know who we could get to replace him, but finding an average shortstop shouldn't be that difficult. I don't have any suggestions off the top of my head. But perhaps there are people out there who would be willing to take a flier on Dansby that last year can be repeated, but I'm not one of them. Keep in mind last year was only 60 games, so he managed to get thru that without having any of his patented loooooooong slumps and that was very favorable for him. But the slumps are going to happen in a full season, I think we can say that pretty factually. If someone is willing to give us a nice return I'd take it because I'm tired of watching him. My biggest problem with him is his extreme inconsistency. I think it makes his overall numbers less meaningful. All hitters are streaky, but I fell pretty sure he has to be one of the streakiest, and I have a real problem with guys who are so extreme in that regard. I think when a guy has a .590 OPS one month, then .620 the next month, then .950 the next month and follows that with a .650 OPS, his overall OPS is not as realistic as steadier players.
Freddy Galvis, Baltimore, may be available now and will be available as a free agent next year. Can probably get him for about $2M (he's getting $1.5M this year). He's a great defender, hits as well as Dansby (.250, 15-20 HR, 60-70 RBI), doesn't have quite the base running skills, but strikes out about 20-25% less. I always liked him in Philly and I think he's a bit better now. He's 31 and could be an adequate replacement until an upgrade can be obtained. Might even make a multiplayer deal with Baltimore and grab some of their better players for some of our minor league capital. Trey Mancini (can play 1st and outfield), Cedric Mullins (CF), Ryan Mountcastle (1B), Anthony Santander (OF - having an off year), or even pitchers Sulser, Fry, or Tate are all worth taking a look.
P.S. What's up with that big masher first baseman, Bryce Ball, we saw in Spring Training several years ago? Has he flamed out?
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jun 25, 2021 14:09:53 GMT -5
Well, to me last year was clearly an outlier year for Dansby. And with all of what he did, he was still just a 1.9 WAR player according to Fangraphs. It's weird how baseball references is always different. In 2019 baseball references called Dansby a 0.9 WAR player while Fangraphs had him at 1.5. The bottom line I think is they aren't far apart for his career WAR. Baseball References has him at 7.3 and Fangraphs at 6.5. That's in the neighborhood of about a 1.6 WAR average per year if you use the 7.3 career WAR and give him about 4.5 seasons of big league time.
You can take every single stat known to mankind and amongst shortstops during Dansby's career he ranks between 15-20th in everything. To me that's about as mediocre as you can get. He had the one elite season with the glove, and to me he hasn't been all that great defensively since then. To me he is as average as you could possibly get.I don't know who we could get to replace him, but finding an average shortstop shouldn't be that difficult. I don't have any suggestions off the top of my head. But perhaps there are people out there who would be willing to take a flier on Dansby that last year can be repeated, but I'm not one of them. Keep in mind last year was only 60 games, so he managed to get thru that without having any of his patented loooooooong slumps and that was very favorable for him. But the slumps are going to happen in a full season, I think we can say that pretty factually. If someone is willing to give us a nice return I'd take it because I'm tired of watching him. My biggest problem with him is his extreme inconsistency. I think it makes his overall numbers less meaningful. All hitters are streaky, but I fell pretty sure he has to be one of the streakiest, and I have a real problem with guys who are so extreme in that regard. I think when a guy has a .590 OPS one month, then .620 the next month, then .950 the next month and follows that with a .650 OPS, his overall OPS is not as realistic as steadier players.
Freddy Galvis, Baltimore, may be available now and will be available as a free agent next year. Can probably get him for about $2M (he's getting $1.5M this year). He's a great defender, hits as well as Dansby (.250, 15-20 HR, 60-70 RBI), doesn't have quite the base running skills, but strikes out about 20-25% less. I always liked him in Philly and I think he's a bit better now. He's 31 and could be an adequate replacement until an upgrade can be obtained. Might even make a multiplayer deal with Baltimore and grab some of their better players for some of our minor league capital. Trey Mancini (can play 1st and outfield), Cedric Mullins (CF), Ryan Mountcastle (1B), Anthony Santander (OF - having an off year), or even pitchers Sulser, Fry, or Tate are all worth taking a look.
P.S. What's up with that big masher first baseman, Bryce Ball, we saw in Spring Training several years ago? Has he flamed out?
I don't know what's going on with Ball. Didn't we have a guy named Harris that people were really high on? I only know they aren't with Gwinnett yet.
Just looked them up, Harris is having a bad year with Mississippi and Ball is having a bad year at high-A ball.
My plan for moving Dansby included moving Freddie too. So we could use his money elsewhere. Trevor Story is a FA after this year, he's 28, it would be nice to add him. Or Andrelton, he's a FA too!
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Jun 25, 2021 14:14:59 GMT -5
I agree with yall except I would not exclude Acuna as he is one of worst about striking out while trying to be a glory hawg by homering instead of just meeting the ball and getting a hit. He needs a knot jerked in his hindend sometimes. I find it hard to criticize a guy who has a .996 OPS, has driven in 45 runs from the leadoff spot following a very weak bottom half of our lineup, is one of the best players in baseball (he's tied for 2nd in WAR) and is on pace to be an 8 WAR player this year. He has an aggressive nature, but it obviously pays off way more than not. I agree but I do hear a lot of Ozzie criticism and he was first in All Star voting, has an ~2 WAR so far this year, and is on pace for 25-30 HR, 45-50 2B, 100 RBI, and a .800+ OPS.
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jun 25, 2021 14:26:35 GMT -5
I find it hard to criticize a guy who has a .996 OPS, has driven in 45 runs from the leadoff spot following a very weak bottom half of our lineup, is one of the best players in baseball (he's tied for 2nd in WAR) and is on pace to be an 8 WAR player this year. He has an aggressive nature, but it obviously pays off way more than not. I agree but I do hear a lot of Ozzie criticism and he was first in All Star voting, has an ~2 WAR so far this year, and is on pace for 25-30 HR, 45-50 2B, 100 RBI, and a .800+ OPS. Yeah I've said before it's pretty remarkable the numbers he has because he's possibly the freest swinger in the history of the game. He's never seen a pitch he didn't like. I used to get really irritated at him for swinging at so much garbage and being so stupid in the batter's box, for me it's kind gotten to the point of accepting he's never going to change and yet somehow he's still pretty productive. Maybe it's the opposing pitcher's just being stupid because you literally should NEVER throw him a pitch in the strike zone, maybe not even within a couple inches because he'll swing at every garbage pitch you throw up there.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Jun 25, 2021 14:50:14 GMT -5
Freddy Galvis, Baltimore, may be available now and will be available as a free agent next year. Can probably get him for about $2M (he's getting $1.5M this year). He's a great defender, hits as well as Dansby (.250, 15-20 HR, 60-70 RBI), doesn't have quite the base running skills, but strikes out about 20-25% less. I always liked him in Philly and I think he's a bit better now. He's 31 and could be an adequate replacement until an upgrade can be obtained. Might even make a multiplayer deal with Baltimore and grab some of their better players for some of our minor league capital. Trey Mancini (can play 1st and outfield), Cedric Mullins (CF), Ryan Mountcastle (1B), Anthony Santander (OF - having an off year), or even pitchers Sulser, Fry, or Tate are all worth taking a look.
P.S. What's up with that big masher first baseman, Bryce Ball, we saw in Spring Training several years ago? Has he flamed out?
I don't know what's going on with Ball. Didn't we have a guy named Harris that people were really high on? I only know they aren't with Gwinnett yet.
Just looked them up, Harris is having a bad year with Mississippi and Ball is having a bad year at high-A ball.
My plan for moving Dansby included moving Freddie too. So we could use his money elsewhere. Trevor Story is a FA after this year, he's 28, it would be nice to add him. Or Andrelton, he's a FA too!
I didn't mention Simmons because I didn't know the situation that he left under. Might be a little bad blood there. As for Story his stats are going down a little even in that hitters mecca. Also, his home/road splits are huge this year. .315/.878 at home and .186/.647 away. Career he's about a .760 OPS guy away from Coors. I'm not saying he's a mediocre player because he's a top 5 SS. Not so sure I would spend huge bucks there though and I believe he'll get huge bucks. My guess is 5 years in the $25-28M/yr vicinity, especially the high end if it's the Yankees. I expect the Yankees to make a move for him before the deadline.
|
|