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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 29, 2018 21:44:33 GMT -5
Probably, but there’s no point in eating salary if they attach Diaz or Haniger. They may as well just trade either in their own, to a team that actually has real prospects. Need to know full terms of course, initial reaction is that I'm going to like this move for the Mets. Until McNeil puts up the same WAR as Cano, making $23.5 million less. The deal has grown since then. From a legit source. 2 of 3 from Kelenic/McNeil/Dunn Mets fans are in full meltdown right now.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 30, 2018 0:43:01 GMT -5
Need to know full terms of course, initial reaction is that I'm going to like this move for the Mets. Until McNeil puts up the same WAR as Cano, making $23.5 million less. The deal has grown since then. From a legit source. 2 of 3 from Kelenic/McNeil/Dunn Mets fans are in full meltdown right now.
So what's your reaction if this is true?
edit to add an addition tweet
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 30, 2018 9:38:19 GMT -5
Until McNeil puts up the same WAR as Cano, making $23.5 million less. The deal has grown since then. From a legit source. 2 of 3 from Kelenic/McNeil/Dunn Mets fans are in full meltdown right now.
So what's your reaction if this is true?
edit to add an addition tweet
I think the Mets are going to regret that trade. Cano is 36 years old and isn’t going to get better, but he’s owed $24 mil every year for the next 5 years. Them getting Diaz would have been like the Braves getting Diaz two years ago. It’s a complete waste and my guess is that the Mets will trade him within two years.
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hokiedan
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Post by hokiedan on Nov 30, 2018 10:03:42 GMT -5
Question for you analytics gurus...how much and for how long would the Braves have to shell out to land McCutchen? And in your opinion, how much, if any would he be an upgrade over Nick. Thanks
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 30, 2018 13:47:00 GMT -5
Fangraphs estimated that both McCutchen and Brantley would land 3/45 deals. I was thinking about that much for each (3/48). Markakis WAR in 2018 was 2.6. Fangraphs predictors come in at 1.2 and 1.1 WAR for him. That's a rather big regression. I expect regression to an extent. Steamer is probably about right. Nick wasn't great for the Braves other than 2018 and he isn't getting any younger.
McCutchen was 2.6 WAR in 2018 and both predictors say he'll have a 2.6 WAR again. That's probably fairly accurate. At least I definitely feel that McCutchen's MVP candidate days are over. Perhaps he could still surprise and come up with a ~4 WAR. I wouldn't count on it though. McCutchen has stayed healthy throughout his career. McCutchen could average 2.5 WAR over the course of a three year deal 45 million dollar deal and the deal would be a good one for the team signing him given that the $/WAR is at something like $9M right now.
It is always possible that McCutchen's play either degrades or he does come down with an injury. I'd pick McCutchen over Brantley personally. Brantley is probably the better player at this point. His play has been rather inconsistent though.
The Braves have said Camargo will be the utility guy. Austin Riley will be playing in the outfield starting in the spring if I heard correctly. If I'm not mistaken Tom Glavine called Camargo an athlete and said he is capable of playing left field. I am somewhat tempted if the Braves can't obtain a standout outfielder to go with Camargo/Riley in the outfield. If Riley is to start in the outfield, then the Braves have two utility guys in Camargo and Culberson. The Braves could probably pick up a utility player easily enough if they decide to start Camargo in the outfield full time. I don't know where the saved funds would be spent. I'm not a bit skeptical of McCutchen though. Assuming this is what would happen, should the Braves pay McCutchen $45M for ~7.5 WAR? I'm actually starting to lean towards no right now.
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jryanw
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Post by jryanw on Nov 30, 2018 13:56:19 GMT -5
Question for you analytics gurus...how much and for how long would the Braves have to shell out to land McCutchen? And in your opinion, how much, if any would he be an upgrade over Nick. Thanks I'm not it a fan of signing either to a 3 year deal but I wonder if they would consider a Donaldson like deal. I think a 1 year deal for either would prob have to be 20 mil but that would give the best lineup in the National league.
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hokiedan
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Post by hokiedan on Nov 30, 2018 15:16:30 GMT -5
Question for you analytics gurus...how much and for how long would the Braves have to shell out to land McCutchen? And in your opinion, how much, if any would he be an upgrade over Nick. Thanks I'm not it a fan of signing either to a 3 year deal but I wonder if they would consider a Donaldson like deal. I think a 1 year deal for either would prob have to be 20 mil but that would give the best lineup in the National league. Thanks for the responses. I couldn't see signing him to a three year deal either. If they could get him for one or two for $18 to $20 million per it might be worth it.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Dec 1, 2018 0:53:40 GMT -5
So, let's have some fun. I'm gonna try to figure out what a Mitch Haniger trade could possibly look like. For starters, Haniger accrued 4.5 WAR last season, and when using Fangraphs Contract Estimation Tool (link below), Haniger, if he ages normally, will accrue 18.0 WAR over the next 4 seasons. That's great! www.fangraphs.com/contract-estimator.aspx?pos=OF&war=4.5&cwar=7.4&len=4&val=9,0.05&name=Mitch+Haniger&agec=1 Based on a 5% increase, for league inflation, the $/WAR will increase from $9 mil. to $10.4 mil. Which means that Haniger's surplus value over the next 4 seasons will be $174.6 million. That's a heck of a lot, but we need to subtract his salary. Thankfully, I did that already in another tread, when I speculated his arbitration raises. I'll quote myself... "If he remains a 4.5 WAR player, or better, (he) is gonna get a big amount under arb1. Kris Bryant got a $10.1 million arb1 contract, after putting up a 6.7 WAR. If I do some math, that's, roughly, $6.75 million, for Haniger, on his arb1 contract. That'd be $9.45 mil. for arb2, and $15.12 for arb3. That's $31.82 mil. over the next 4 years." So, we gotta subtract that from his surplus, which would mean that Haniger has a surplus value of....$174.6 - $31.82 = $142.8 million. Before I continue, the Braves are trading MLB level players to make a deal like this happen. Now, it is entirely possible that DiPoto may not value Haniger at 18.0 WAR over the next 4 years. That's certainly possible. Another possibility is that the Braves absorb the rest of Felix Hernandez's contract to offset some of that surplus value. After all, it's pretty clear that the M's are trying to jettison dead weight contracts, but I'll figure that trade out at another time. Anyways, that nifty Contract Estimation Tool lets me figure out potential arb raises, and I did exactly that for Sean Newcomb, who's projected to make $18.3 million, over the remaining 5 years of team control. He's also predicted to put up 11.3 WAR during that time, and when you do the math, that's $94.2 million in surplus value. So.... Braves get: Mitch Haniger - $142.8 million Mariners get: Sean Newcomb - $94.2 million Mike Soroka - $45.2 million Filler - $3 to 5 million Doing all this surplus value stuff is new to me, so I'm not entirely sure that I'm doing it right. I'm gonna continue to do some research on this.
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akod
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Post by akod on Dec 2, 2018 0:44:41 GMT -5
Love the Mets trade. They tie up payroll for 5 years and lose two first round picks. Just need the Phillies to make some terrible signings.
So with what Diaz just went for would you guys consider jumping on my train to keep as many prospects as possible and move a number of them to the pen? Fried, Gohara, Weigel, and possibly Wilson would be good candidates.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Dec 2, 2018 2:31:06 GMT -5
Love the Mets trade. They tie up payroll for 5 years and lose two first round picks. Just need the Phillies to make some terrible signings. So with what Diaz just went for would you guys consider jumping on my train to keep as many prospects as possible and move a number of them to the pen? Fried, Gohara, Weigel, and possibly Wilson would be good candidates. Ya, that deal is a total joke. I’m all for moving guys to the bullpen, but I’d like to see the Braves try tandem starting before they do something like that.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Dec 2, 2018 18:00:42 GMT -5
Love the Mets trade. They tie up payroll for 5 years and lose two first round picks. Just need the Phillies to make some terrible signings. So with what Diaz just went for would you guys consider jumping on my train to keep as many prospects as possible and move a number of them to the pen? Fried, Gohara, Weigel, and possibly Wilson would be good candidates. Ya, that deal is a total joke. I’m all for moving guys to the bullpen, but I’d like to see the Braves try tandem starting before they do something like that. We could have 8 good legit starters in a year or two--just let each guy go out and throw 2-3 innings every 3rd day.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 8, 2019 0:27:14 GMT -5
What's the surplus value evaluation of the Realmuto trade? Seems pretty slanted in favor of Miami to me.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Feb 8, 2019 1:07:57 GMT -5
What's the surplus value evaluation of the Realmuto trade? Seems pretty slanted in favor of Miami to me. It really depends on how you value Smith. Sanchez has $32.2 m worth of surplus, Alfaro was ranked #62 last year, which is $24.1 m. That's $56.3 m, which is close to what JTR's value is. JTR's value is around $60 to $70 m. If you ask me, I think the Braves are really really high on their prospects; which is promising, since they see them, and know them, more than we do. I think the Braves wanted Riley, the Braves said no. Then, the Marlins wanted Anderson/Wright and the Braves said no. After that, the Marlins asked for more of a lesser package, but the Braves balked at the amount of prospects. That's just one man's thought, though. There's also another rule of thought that JTR isn't as good as many think, and the combination of Sanchez/Alfaro could lead to the phollies regretting the deal.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 8, 2019 1:37:47 GMT -5
What's the surplus value evaluation of the Realmuto trade? Seems pretty slanted in favor of Miami to me. It really depends on how you value Smith. Sanchez has $32.2 m worth of surplus, Alfaro was ranked #62 last year, which is $24.1 m. That's $56.3 m, which is close to what JTR's value is. JTR's value is around $60 to $70 m. If you ask me, I think the Braves are really really high on their prospects; which is promising, since they see them, and know them, more than we do. I think the Braves wanted Riley, the Braves said no. Then, the Marlins wanted Anderson/Wright and the Braves said no. After that, the Marlins asked for more of a lesser package, but the Braves balked at the amount of prospects. That's just one man's thought, though. There's also another rule of thought that JTR isn't as good as many think, and the combination of Sanchez/Alfaro could lead to the phollies regretting the deal. Doesn't the fact that JTR only has two years left on his contract matter, or is that already figured in your numbers.
And yeah, considering Alfaro had a 2.1 WAR last year in only 377 PA's, and was good defensively, it seems like 5-6 years of him alone goes a long way compared to two years of JTR. Then throw in the #1 Faillies prospect, who is the 27th ranked prospect in all of baseball....that seems pretty ridiculous to me. It reeks of desperation to me, the Faillies abandoning their failing rebuild as if they have a chance to be legit contenders the next two years. The Faillies gave up about the same as us giving up Soroka and Contreras.....with the difference being Alfaro at least has already proved he can be good at the big league level.
And I know nothing about Stewart, for all we know he could end up being good too. I read that he had a real nice season last year in low A ball.
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akod
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Post by akod on Feb 8, 2019 8:54:31 GMT -5
Well from a surplus value perspective it’s really impossible to line up our prospects. Very little consensus. I mean Keith Law would balk at Riley in a deal but loves Touki. Baseball Prospectus says the exact opposite.
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