akod
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Post by akod on Nov 28, 2018 23:36:00 GMT -5
Haniger and Cano = 120 mil over 5 years PLUS Haniger’s own arbitration salary.
Say we trade Cano and pay 60 mil of his salary, would anyone take on even that contract without attaching a prospect?
Haniger = 60 mil over 4 years PLUS his own arbitration salary AND a prospect potentially.
I would need Haniger and Diaz for this deal, the M’s would balk. IE no deal.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 29, 2018 0:43:20 GMT -5
Haniger and Cano = 120 mil over 5 years PLUS Haniger’s own arbitration salary. Say we trade Cano and pay 60 mil of his salary, would anyone take on even that contract without attaching a prospect? Haniger = 60 mil over 4 years PLUS his own arbitration salary AND a prospect potentially. I would need Haniger and Diaz for this deal, the M’s would balk. IE no deal. Let me look at it. I’ll post something soon.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 29, 2018 1:23:14 GMT -5
peteorr Let me preface this by saying that I don't see why the Braves would do such a deal. Cano wouldn't have a position to play, but I'll play along because I like working on surplus values. Cano is 36-years old, and his contract has another 5 years left on it (Ouch!!!). He is owed $24 million, each season, for a total of $120 million. Cano is still an excellent hitter and put up 2.9 WAR over 80 games this past season, which is amazing, but who's gonna bet he's able to keep that up, now that he's off the juice? Steamers, which is notably rough on projected WAR totals, has Cano accruing 8.5 WAR over the remaining 5 years. That's really rough, and I don't think that's correct, but if a GM is entertaining a Cano trade, that's where they'll be at. Steamers has $/WAR increasing each year, hitting $10.9 million by 2023, so 8.5 WAR is worth $81.1 million. That means the M's are under water by about $40 million. Haniger is tough because he hasn't hit arbitration yet. I thought he was under Arb1 this year. Dude, if he remains a 4.5 WAR player, or better, is gonna get a big amount under arb1. Kris Bryant got $10.1 million arb1 contract, after putting up a 6.7 WAR. If I do some math, that's, roughly, $6.75 million, for Haniger, on his arb1 contract. That'd be $9.45 mil. for arb2, and $15.12 for arb3. That's $31.82 mil, or $32 mil. for ease of math, over the next 4 years. I'm basing this on if he remains a 4.5 WAR player over the next 4 years. If that's the case, his surplus value is $180 million. If you subtract his salary, that's $148 million in surplus value. Now, if you package the two, that would be $108 million in surplus value. To give you an idea on what that would be to the Braves, I'll give you two packages, a high quality package and a depth package. High Quality: Cristian Pache - $65.5 million surplus value Mike Soroka - $45.9 million surplus value Depth: Austin Riley - $37.6 million surplus value Kyle Wright - $32.2 million surplus value Touki Toussaint - $19.7 million surplus value Bryce Wilson - $15.1 million surplus value I would like to add a caveat. I don't think the Braves would do this deal. If they just got Haniger, then that changes things, but I think a lot of fans would be in shock at the package the Braves gave up, as you can see above, which includes absorbing Cano's salary. I can see why the M's would try to attach Cano, because they wouldn't have to eat money, and they'd still get a solid package of prospects, but I just don't see a team working out such a deal, unless Dipoto completely undervalues Haniger, which is entirely possible, after seeing the massacre that is the Pax trade.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 29, 2018 1:51:30 GMT -5
I'm not a big fan of Swanson. You make this trade if you also want Cano. I wouldn't overpay of course. Making this trade would depend on the asking price and how eagerly the Mariners want to trade Cano and how willing they are to trade Haniger. I believe Cano can be good for a season or two more (3-4 WAR)and serviceable for a season or two beyond that (2+ WAR). I think Cano would be an upgrade over Dansby for the first three seasons. Cano had a 136 wRC+ in 2018. Dansby was at 80 in 2018. That is a massive difference.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 29, 2018 1:59:54 GMT -5
I'm not a big fan of Swanson. You make this trade if you also want Cano. I wouldn't overpay of course. Making this trade would depend on the asking price and how eagerly the Mariners want to trade Cano and how willing they are to trade Haniger. I believe Cano can be good for a season or two more (3-4 WAR)and serviceable for a season or two beyond that (2+ WAR). I think Cano would be an upgrade over Dansby for the first three seasons. Cano had a 136 wRC+ in 2018. Dansby was at 80 in 2017. That is a massive difference. The downside, of course, is the fact that Cano will be owed a huge chunk of money and won’t live up to it. The Braves, even if they get Haniger, doing this deal would really put them in a financial bind. I like that you’re thinking outside the box, though.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 29, 2018 2:17:07 GMT -5
peteorr Let me preface this by saying that I don't see why the Braves would do such a deal. Cano wouldn't have a position to play, but I'll play along because I like working on surplus values. Cano is 36-years old, and his contract has another 5 years left on it (Ouch!!!). He is owed $24 million, each season, for a total of $120 million. Cano is still an excellent hitter and put up 2.9 WAR over 80 games this past season, which is amazing, but who's gonna bet he's able to keep that up, now that he's off the juice? Steamers, which is notably rough on projected WAR totals, has Cano accruing 8.5 WAR over the remaining 5 years. That's really rough, and I don't think that's correct, but if a GM is entertaining a Cano trade, that's where they'll be at. Steamers has $/WAR increasing each year, hitting $10.9 million by 2023, so 8.5 WAR is worth $81.1 million. That means the M's are under water by about $40 million. Haniger is tough because he hasn't hit arbitration yet. I thought he was under Arb1 this year. Dude, if he remains a 4.5 WAR player, or better, is gonna get a big amount under arb1. Kris Bryant got $10.1 million arb1 contract, after putting up a 6.7 WAR. If I do some math, that's, roughly, $6.75 million, for Haniger, on his arb1 contract. That'd be $9.45 mil. for arb2, and $15.12 for arb3. That's $31.82 mil, or $32 mil. for ease of math, over the next 4 years. I'm basing this on if he remains a 4.5 WAR player over the next 4 years. If that's the case, his surplus value is $180 million. If you subtract his salary, that's $148 million in surplus value. Now, if you package the two, that would be $108 million in surplus value. To give you an idea on what that would be to the Braves, I'll give you two packages, a high quality package and a depth package. High Quality: Cristian Pache - $65.5 million surplus value Mike Soroka - $45.9 million surplus value Depth: Austin Riley - $37.6 million surplus value Kyle Wright - $32.2 million surplus value Touki Toussaint - $19.7 million surplus value Bryce Wilson - $15.1 million surplus value I would like to add a caveat. I don't think the Braves would do this deal. If they just got Haniger, then that changes things, but I think a lot of fans would be in shock at the package the Braves gave up, as you can see above, which includes absorbing Cano's salary. I can see why the M's would try to attach Cano, because they wouldn't have to eat money, and they'd still get a solid package of prospects, but I just don't see a team working out such a deal, unless Dipoto completely undervalues Haniger, which is entirely possible, after seeing the massacre that is the Pax trade. "I can see why the M's would try to attach Cano, because they wouldn't have to eat money, and they'd still get a solid package of prospects, but I just don't see a team working out such a deal, unless Dipoto completely undervalues Haniger, which is entirely possible, after seeing the massacre that is the Pax trade."
I think this is entirely possible. Are you perhaps overrating Haniger? I'm not interested in a trade if that were to be happening. You used Steamer for Cano. I'm sure GMs won't be using it. I tend to agree that while Steamer might certainly not be correct when predicting Cano's stats, we don't have much else to go on. I personally believe he'll be better than that. You valued Haniger at his current production. Steamer has his production dropping to a still good 2.9 WAR.
I'd like trading for Haniger and Cano provided the deal is right. I just don't know what package would make me happy to make a trade. Giving up either package would be difficult for me. Pache could be great and if we think he will be, we shouldn't trade him. He's had a really low walk rate though and hasn't hit all that well in the minors. His bat could come around of course. I'm okay with trading him as the centerpiece of this trade. I would hesitate to trade Soroka unless the Braves believe based on his mechanics that he'll get injured again. I would try to talk the Mariners out of Soroka.
I'd be okay with Pache, Touki, and Wilson for Haniger + Cano. Let's get it done.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 29, 2018 2:25:12 GMT -5
I'm not a big fan of Swanson. You make this trade if you also want Cano. I wouldn't overpay of course. Making this trade would depend on the asking price and how eagerly the Mariners want to trade Cano and how willing they are to trade Haniger. I believe Cano can be good for a season or two more (3-4 WAR)and serviceable for a season or two beyond that (2+ WAR). I think Cano would be an upgrade over Dansby for the first three seasons. Cano had a 136 wRC+ in 2018. Dansby was at 80 in 2017. That is a massive difference. The downside, of course, is the fact that Cano will be owed a huge chunk of money and won’t live up to it. The Braves, even if they get Haniger, doing this deal would really put them in a financial bind. I like that you’re thinking outside the box, though. Can the Braves think conventionally and still compete for a championship? Off the top of my head the Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, and Nationals should be outspending the Braves in 2019. A few other NL teams probably will be as well. I believe some calculated risks are necessary.
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akod
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Post by akod on Nov 29, 2018 2:34:33 GMT -5
Mid 30s coming off roids, where have I heard that before? This is selling high for the Ms as sad as that sounds.
2019 - 24 mil - cano falls to a fringe starter, value is still there in the deal due to Haniger 2020- 30.75 mil- cano likely a bench bat and you have Haniger 2021- 33.45 mil- cano possibly still a bench bat and you have Haniger 2022- 39.12 mil- cano likely off the roster and you have Haniger 2023- 24 mil- you have neither on the roster
Better hope Haniger is a beast all 4 years, surplus value may come closer to washing out in my scenario but that piece of overhead is hard to swallow. 2022 the year after we have to make decisions on Folty and Freeman mind you with a fat 39.12 mil on the books for basically 1 player. Further handcuffed by losing that player and still owing 24 mil the following season.
Like I said, I’m needing Diaz in that deal to get serious about handcuffing 2022 and 23 so severely. The Ms would and should walk away from the table in that scenario. We just don’t fit.
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akod
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Post by akod on Nov 29, 2018 2:45:25 GMT -5
The money from the top clubs doesn’t necessarily buy them championships. The yanks tried that for years and couldn’t pull it off. These teams need strong cost controlled talent a la Judge, Betts, etc. The big difference IMO is they can make more financial mistakes where as we don’t get a get out of jail free card. We sign just one of Panda, Hanley, or Price and it can hold us back. Money is important but those teams have to build with young stars just like any other team. We just have to be smarter to avoid those mistakes and as I pointed out above, this particular scenario really puts us in a 3 year window with 2 years of payroll hell that we would exit just in time to toss all kinds of money Acuna’s way. Better hold on to as many prospects as possible along the way in this case. Cheap production is the only way we don’t fall into a possible rebuild in 22 and 23.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 29, 2018 2:59:06 GMT -5
The money from the top clubs doesn’t necessarily buy them championships. The yanks tried that for years and couldn’t pull it off. These teams need strong cost controlled talent a la Judge, Betts, etc. The big difference IMO is they can make more financial mistakes where as we don’t get a get out of jail free card. We sign just one of Panda, Hanley, or Price and it can hold us back. Money is important but those teams have to build with young stars just like any other team. We just have to be smarter to avoid those mistakes and as I pointed out above, this particular scenario really puts us in a 3 year window with 2 years of payroll hell that we would exit just in time to toss all kinds of money Acuna’s way. Better hold on to as many prospects as possible along the way in this case. Cheap production is the only way we don’t fall into a possible rebuild in 22 and 23. Exactly, I've been saying the same thing for a long time. We'll be in another full rebuild so quickly that our heads will spin faster than a Tilt-A-Whirl if we make a big money mistake or two.
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Post by jahgentle on Nov 29, 2018 3:18:52 GMT -5
The money from the top clubs doesn’t necessarily buy them championships. The yanks tried that for years and couldn’t pull it off. These teams need strong cost controlled talent a la Judge, Betts, etc. The big difference IMO is they can make more financial mistakes where as we don’t get a get out of jail free card. We sign just one of Panda, Hanley, or Price and it can hold us back. Money is important but those teams have to build with young stars just like any other team. We just have to be smarter to avoid those mistakes and as I pointed out above, this particular scenario really puts us in a 3 year window with 2 years of payroll hell that we would exit just in time to toss all kinds of money Acuna’s way. Better hold on to as many prospects as possible along the way in this case. Cheap production is the only way we don’t fall into a possible rebuild in 22 and 23. Exactly, I've been saying the same thing for a long time. We'll be in another full rebuild so quickly that our heads will spin faster than a Tilt-A-Whirl if we make a big money mistake or two.
I like the philosophy you and Akod have here and it's the only reasonable way with our budget. For all the complaining I did, Wren did build some great teams with the types of players I like. Prado, Infante, David Ross...good pitching, great bullpens it's a winning formula IMO, makes for a good team to watch every night. And a big part of winning the big prize does come down to luck so why take a huge gamble that could set us back years.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 29, 2018 11:32:00 GMT -5
I was looking at the Cano rumors last night after posting. I hadn't looked at the rumors before posting the initial idea. If rumors are true then some teams are asking for talent back such as Haniger as the Braves would. Teams are asking for the Mariners to pay a significant amount of Cano's salary. I read $50M in one rumor. Other potential scenarios involved the Mariners taking back another bad contract that doesn't have as much money on it. Supposedly the Mariners really want to get rid of Cano. Also he has a no trade clause. The Braves might not have too much competition for Cano if he is willing to wave his no trade clause.
As I said previously, I believe Cano can be good for another two seasons and serviceable for a season or two beyond that. To me a trade makes sense if the Mariners will send the Braves $24M or more (the 5th season of his contract covered). The amount depends on the prospects we would give up. Maybe you could get the Mariners to pay $30M of Cano's contract or the initial $24M and take Teheran? That would give the Braves some immediate salary relief. Cano played well after the injury and PED suspension. Those shouldn't be concerns. I am under no impression that a trade for Haniger + Cano would happen. I'd certainly like to see it though.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 29, 2018 12:21:51 GMT -5
We might be missing out boys.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 29, 2018 21:05:51 GMT -5
We might be missing out boys. Probably, but there’s no point in eating salary if they attach Diaz or Haniger. They may as well just trade either in their own, to a team that actually has real prospects.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 29, 2018 21:22:35 GMT -5
We might be missing out boys. Probably, but there’s no point in eating salary if they attach Diaz or Haniger. They may as well just trade either in their own, to a team that actually has real prospects. Need to know full terms of course, initial reaction is that I'm going to like this move for the Mets.
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