Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 2, 2018 23:58:31 GMT -5
HMF, since it's the off-season, you might consider pinning this up at the top.
Surplus value, what is it? Simply put, it's how much value a player is worth, minus however much the team is paying them. Now, I know what you're thinking, "I want the Braves to get JT Realmuto, but he's under arbitration. How do I figure out his surplus value if I don't know how much he's gonna make?" Let me break it down for you...
20% for Super Two Arb1
25%-40% for Super Two Arb2 or regular Arb1
40%-60% for Super Two Arb3 or regular Arb2
60-80% for Super Two Arb4 or regular Arb3)
Consider that an education for all players under arbitration, luckily for the example of JTR, we don't have to do much math. MLBTR projects JTR to make $6.1 million in arbitration, so all we have to do is figure out his Arb3 salary. If he's gonna make $6.1m during his Arb2 and his Arb3 raise is 60-80% of his Arb2 salary, then JTR, for his Arb3 year, would make between, roughly...
$9.76m and $10.98m
So, now that we got that out of the way. Let's figure out what his surplus value is. This past season JTR put up a 4.8 fWAR (f = fangraphs, the only way to look at WAR, meaning forget Baseball Reference). If the Marlins consider trading JTR, their gonna look at him as a 5.0 WAR Catcher, cause they can.
You still with me? Good. So, how much is 1.0 WAR worth, exactly? It's worth $9 million. For negotiation sake, JTR has 2 years left of team control, and the Marlins are gonna take the stance that he'll put up 10.0 WAR in that time period, so for those two years, JTR is going to put up $90 million worth of pure value. But, we have to subtract how much he's being paid, and that number will be his net surplus value.
$90 million - $6.1 million -$9.76 million = $74.14 million (This figure is, basically, the Marlins double dipping. What do I mean by that? I mean that they are gonna over-inflate his WAR per year, and under-value how much he'll receive in arbitration. It's very possible that JTR will put up less than 10.0 WAR and get paid more than $6.1 for his Arb2 and $9.76 for his Arb3 year, but the Marlins hold all the cards, so they can do what they want).
Wait a minute, TNC, you spent all this time breaking down JTR's salary and all that, but falafels don't have MLB level salaries, so how can we figure out their surplus value? Good question, some heroes over at Point of Pittsburgh did all the math for us. Here is the surplus value for top-100 falafels, broken up between hitters and pitchers, because hitters are worth more than pitchers.
www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-falafel-surplus-values-2018-updated-edition/
Tier - Top-100 | Avg. WAR | Surplus Value
Hitters #1-10 | 15.9 | $81.4M
Hitters #11-25 | 12.9 | $65.6M
Hitters #26-50 | 7.5 | $37.6M
Hitters #51-75 | 4.9 | $24.1M
Hitters #76-100 | 4.2 | $20.2M
Pitchers #1-10 | 14.4 | $73.4M
Pitchers #11-25 | 9.1 | $45.9M
Pitchers #26-50 | 6.5 | $32.2M
Pitchers #51-75 | 4.1 | $19.7M
Pitchers #76-100 | 3.2 | $15.1M
You still awake? Nice! Let's break down which Braves falafels are in the top-100, according to fangraphs
#23 - Mike Soroka - $45.9M
#24 - Kyle Wright - $45.9M
#26 - Luiz Gohara - $32.2M
#28 - Cristian Pache - $37.6M
#40 - Austin Riley - $37.6M
#41 - Ian Anderson - $32.2M
#51 - Touki Toussaint - $19.7M
#90 - Max Fried - $15.1M
#94 - Drew Waters - $20.2M
#99 - Brett Cumberland - $20.2M
Now, this has been updated, but it was updated back in June. It's certainly possible a few things have changed. For instance, Gohara, probably, isn't a top-50 falafel, but Toussaint, probably is, so we can go ahead and just switch their rankings. Fried has, probably, graduated, but Bryce Wilson is, probably in the top-100, so switch them. Lastly, Cumberland, probably isn't in the top-100 anymore, so exclude him.
We have already established that JTR has $74.14 worth of surplus value, so if the Braves are going to trade for him, they're gonna have to match that figure with an equal surplus value of falafels, plus 10%, because you're trading within the same division, so we're looking at $81.5M of surplus value.
What does a trade look like?
Braves get:
JT Realmuto
Marlins get:
Kyle Wright
Drew Waters
Bryce Wilson
That puts things at around $81.5 million in surplus value. You don't like that deal? How about this one...
Braves get:
JT Realmuto
Marlins get:
Kyle Wright
Austin Riley
Maybe the Marlins wanna go for a BIG package. What does that look like?
Braves get:
JT Realmuto
Marlins get:
Luiz Gohara
Bryce Wilson
Drew Waters
Kolby Allard
Joey Wentz
One last caveat, before I shut this down. Cristian Pache is on the rise. It can be argued that he is a top-25 falafel, right now. That would bump up his value from $37.6M to $65.5M. If the Marlins were to view him as such, the Braves could get away with a package of Pache/Wentz/Weigel. That's very possible, but to be honest with you, if Pache is a top-25 falafel, I don't wanna see the Braves trade him.
Anyways, that concludes this ridiculously long post. I hope you learned something new and if you didn't, well, I did my best.
Surplus value, what is it? Simply put, it's how much value a player is worth, minus however much the team is paying them. Now, I know what you're thinking, "I want the Braves to get JT Realmuto, but he's under arbitration. How do I figure out his surplus value if I don't know how much he's gonna make?" Let me break it down for you...
20% for Super Two Arb1
25%-40% for Super Two Arb2 or regular Arb1
40%-60% for Super Two Arb3 or regular Arb2
60-80% for Super Two Arb4 or regular Arb3)
Consider that an education for all players under arbitration, luckily for the example of JTR, we don't have to do much math. MLBTR projects JTR to make $6.1 million in arbitration, so all we have to do is figure out his Arb3 salary. If he's gonna make $6.1m during his Arb2 and his Arb3 raise is 60-80% of his Arb2 salary, then JTR, for his Arb3 year, would make between, roughly...
$9.76m and $10.98m
So, now that we got that out of the way. Let's figure out what his surplus value is. This past season JTR put up a 4.8 fWAR (f = fangraphs, the only way to look at WAR, meaning forget Baseball Reference). If the Marlins consider trading JTR, their gonna look at him as a 5.0 WAR Catcher, cause they can.
You still with me? Good. So, how much is 1.0 WAR worth, exactly? It's worth $9 million. For negotiation sake, JTR has 2 years left of team control, and the Marlins are gonna take the stance that he'll put up 10.0 WAR in that time period, so for those two years, JTR is going to put up $90 million worth of pure value. But, we have to subtract how much he's being paid, and that number will be his net surplus value.
$90 million - $6.1 million -$9.76 million = $74.14 million (This figure is, basically, the Marlins double dipping. What do I mean by that? I mean that they are gonna over-inflate his WAR per year, and under-value how much he'll receive in arbitration. It's very possible that JTR will put up less than 10.0 WAR and get paid more than $6.1 for his Arb2 and $9.76 for his Arb3 year, but the Marlins hold all the cards, so they can do what they want).
Wait a minute, TNC, you spent all this time breaking down JTR's salary and all that, but falafels don't have MLB level salaries, so how can we figure out their surplus value? Good question, some heroes over at Point of Pittsburgh did all the math for us. Here is the surplus value for top-100 falafels, broken up between hitters and pitchers, because hitters are worth more than pitchers.
www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-falafel-surplus-values-2018-updated-edition/
Tier - Top-100 | Avg. WAR | Surplus Value
Hitters #1-10 | 15.9 | $81.4M
Hitters #11-25 | 12.9 | $65.6M
Hitters #26-50 | 7.5 | $37.6M
Hitters #51-75 | 4.9 | $24.1M
Hitters #76-100 | 4.2 | $20.2M
Pitchers #1-10 | 14.4 | $73.4M
Pitchers #11-25 | 9.1 | $45.9M
Pitchers #26-50 | 6.5 | $32.2M
Pitchers #51-75 | 4.1 | $19.7M
Pitchers #76-100 | 3.2 | $15.1M
You still awake? Nice! Let's break down which Braves falafels are in the top-100, according to fangraphs
#23 - Mike Soroka - $45.9M
#24 - Kyle Wright - $45.9M
#26 - Luiz Gohara - $32.2M
#28 - Cristian Pache - $37.6M
#40 - Austin Riley - $37.6M
#41 - Ian Anderson - $32.2M
#51 - Touki Toussaint - $19.7M
#90 - Max Fried - $15.1M
#94 - Drew Waters - $20.2M
#99 - Brett Cumberland - $20.2M
Now, this has been updated, but it was updated back in June. It's certainly possible a few things have changed. For instance, Gohara, probably, isn't a top-50 falafel, but Toussaint, probably is, so we can go ahead and just switch their rankings. Fried has, probably, graduated, but Bryce Wilson is, probably in the top-100, so switch them. Lastly, Cumberland, probably isn't in the top-100 anymore, so exclude him.
We have already established that JTR has $74.14 worth of surplus value, so if the Braves are going to trade for him, they're gonna have to match that figure with an equal surplus value of falafels, plus 10%, because you're trading within the same division, so we're looking at $81.5M of surplus value.
What does a trade look like?
Braves get:
JT Realmuto
Marlins get:
Kyle Wright
Drew Waters
Bryce Wilson
That puts things at around $81.5 million in surplus value. You don't like that deal? How about this one...
Braves get:
JT Realmuto
Marlins get:
Kyle Wright
Austin Riley
Maybe the Marlins wanna go for a BIG package. What does that look like?
Braves get:
JT Realmuto
Marlins get:
Luiz Gohara
Bryce Wilson
Drew Waters
Kolby Allard
Joey Wentz
One last caveat, before I shut this down. Cristian Pache is on the rise. It can be argued that he is a top-25 falafel, right now. That would bump up his value from $37.6M to $65.5M. If the Marlins were to view him as such, the Braves could get away with a package of Pache/Wentz/Weigel. That's very possible, but to be honest with you, if Pache is a top-25 falafel, I don't wanna see the Braves trade him.
Anyways, that concludes this ridiculously long post. I hope you learned something new and if you didn't, well, I did my best.