Marlins (46-63) @ Braves (57-47), Wed 8-1-18, 7:35pm

*** WEATHER UPDATE*** Atlanta Metro Area 3:30PM EDT 8/1/2018

Continued SW flow at the surface and aloft, abundant moisture and instability persist in the area. Convective development bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout central and norther GA today. Several atmospheric short waves will propagate along a stationary front in the Mississippi Valley and the timing of numerous showers and storms will be predicated on the timing of these pockets of instability. Mesoscale convective severe weather indices are slightly less impressive today indicating just moderate convection this afternoon and evening. An isolated severe storm is possible but any significant chances of widespread severe weather is low. Severe weather indices drop off considerably later this evening during game time.
I expect more widespread and somewhat heavier rainfall accumulations today (11 AM -11 PM) generally averaging about 1" in north central GA by 11 PM but some areas will pick up 2"-3" and isolated areas even more while other may only be in the .25-.5" range. The steady SW flow aloft leads to the continual passing of showers and storms over the same area know as "training". Some areas will experience that today while others will have more intermittent activity. The NAM, HREF and Euro push the axis of heaviest rain to the west and north today while the GFS has the axis more over the metro area and somewhat lighter rainfall. HRRR has the axis just east of the metro area although the latest 18Z data just in shows the axis moving to the west and 11 AM-11 PM rainfall amounts increasing to .55". HRRR has been persistent with some heavier rain (.5" or more) in the Atlanta Metro area between 7 PM and 9 PM.Once again activity should should diminish slightly as we move into the evening hours and between short wave pulses aloft but another disturbance will cause more showers to develop in the overnight hours (i.e. 3-5 AM). I'm skeptical of the GFS as an outlier but I should have a better idea with the 12Z Euro and the 18Z GFS/NAM and several more HRRR data outputs. I would expect the axis of heaviest rain to be west and north of the metro area but that doesn't preclude some heavy showers in the metro area due to the close proximity of the expected axis and also some heavy pockets to the south and east though not as concentrated. This would also agree nicely with my analysis and projected upper air dynamics.

Now for the important game time period. Confidence is not as high as yesterday but most models once again have the Smyrna area in the .1-.25" range from 8-11 PM although several models do have pockets of .5" through 11 PM but once again most of that falls between 8 and 9 PM and some between 9 and 10 PM. My only take from this is that we could be looking at a very similar situation to last night although the showers in the metro area could be a bit more numerous and extend a bit later into the evening before turning to intermittent and diminishing. In summary I would expect showers and a few thunderstorms to be scattered through 8-9 PM and becoming more intermittent after 9 PM. As far as the game goes it may depend on how bad they want to get it in. There may be a window to start but will most likely be a delay or we could just delay the game and start later in the evening but even then showers may extend a bit longer in most parts of the area and there is also the threat of light to moderate showers persisting or a brief heavy shower after 9/10 PM. I'm of the opinion now that there will be a window of several hours between 8 PM and 2 AM where we could play although that window may be interrupted several times with light to moderate showers, some maybe heavy enough to cause a delay possibly resulting in an AM finish.
Temps should be in the mid 70's dipping to the lower 70's and maybe even upper 60's if some rain showers are present. Generally light winds, except during storms, blowing in from right/center at Suntrust Park. I'll keep a tab on the radar and high resolution models to see if I can detect any trends that may reinforce or change my thoughts.
-PA

GO BRAVES!