|
Post by PABraveFan on Jan 3, 2020 16:30:41 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 3, 2020 18:23:28 GMT -5
I could be misremembering, but didn't you have arguments with some chick, on the old bored, about global warming? Either way, congrats! You should be very proud.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Jan 3, 2020 19:34:39 GMT -5
I could be misremembering, but didn't you have arguments with some chick, on the old bored, about global warming? Either way, congrats! You should be very proud. Thanks...A couple I remember are Yak and Buckyball. Not sure if they were of the female persuasion though.
|
|
|
Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Jan 3, 2020 19:53:13 GMT -5
I could be misremembering, but didn't you have arguments with some chick, on the old bored, about global warming? Either way, congrats! You should be very proud. Thanks...A couple I remember are Yak and Buckyball. Not sure if they were of the female persuasion though. There was a woman, if I recall correctly, but Bucky and yak were heavily involved. You didn’t get caught up in that? For some reason I thought you did.
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 3, 2020 21:38:17 GMT -5
I recall a crazy woman posting there who pretty much argued about everything. Can't recall her name though.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Jan 3, 2020 22:03:15 GMT -5
Thanks...A couple I remember are Yak and Buckyball. Not sure if they were of the female persuasion though. There was a woman, if I recall correctly, but Bucky and yak were heavily involved. You didn’t get caught up in that? For some reason I thought you did. We had our back and forths as I remember. I used to toy with them by posting stuff I knew they would come back in a furor over. Once I posted my Paleo blog Bucky criticized it as similar to a NOAA article and then I proceed to explain that I worked for NOAA so some of the material probably was very similar. He said that was cool. I once got a big reaction out of Yak and Bucky on a tread I posted about CO2 and solar activity. I have to admit I really didn't look at much more than the title and tried to calm them down with some later posts but even that didn't work. Bucky got all bent out of shape and Yak called me gullible. Most people who comment on climate change on these types of forums are basing their knowledge on media reports, a few journal articles and internet links (whichever ones suit their particular views) that they have read. Very few climate change commenters on these types of threads have ever DONE ANYTHING relating to weather or climate yet I'm the one who gets called gullible? It's was hilarious, really!
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 4, 2020 0:09:45 GMT -5
Was the crazy woman from the old bored named Juanita by chance? I could be thinking of a different crazy woman from a different forum.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Jul 13, 2020 12:50:21 GMT -5
Editorial Submission (Edited version - see bottom for full MS Word document before editing) The opinion piece was primarily written by Michael R. Arndt, Enola, PA, retired former employee of The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National Weather Service (NOAA-NWS) and U.S. Army Atmospheric Sciences Laboratory (ASL), and reviewed, edited, updated, and endorsed for publication by Dr. Karl Svozil, Vienna, Austria, Ao. Univ. Professor at the Institute for Theoretical Physics of the Vienna University of Technology. Alumni of the Centre for Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science of the University of Auckland and noted theoretical physicist and author of more than one hundred scientific research papers and several books on theoretical and quantum physics. We Need A Climate Policy That Is Responsible And SensibleBy Michael R. Arndt and Dr. Karl Svozil Dr. Rubenstein’s letter ' Vote with our climate in mind' 24 May 2020 prompted the offering of some pertinent facts and suggest possible alternative views and solutions on the issue of climate change. While Dr. Rubenstein's passion on the subject of climate change are to be admired and respected, he, like many others, offers up unproven generalities of our current climate and a future climate state or states that is hypothetical and highly uncertain. We would like to offer some facts and thoughts on the relevant issues. This opinion piece is in no way attempting to refute anthropogenic climate change just the assumptions of unfounded truth that are often made. We need some perspective on the exaggerated statements that are continually propagated that have no proven current scientific basis that confirms their reality. As the writer says "Severe storms, floods, wildfires, and crop failures don’t respect our politics". I would add that they also don't respect uncertain, tentative, inconclusive science either as documented in the latest IPCC report. There is virtually no proof that these events are happening at any rate that is more severe since the mid 20th century in the eyes of the IPCC, the world's most authoritative source of scientific information on climate change. The following summary from IPCC AR5 Chapter 2, Changes in Extreme Events states: "In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale." Events like the Australian wildfires and the California drought are being unfairly labeled as climate causalities without conclusive evidence when they are more likely natural occurrences. Historically, it's not unusual for California and the western US to have droughts and extreme climate variability. The following summary from IPCC AR5 Chapter 2, Changes in Extreme Events states: "In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, owing to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950." According to a 2016 NCBI study 'Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world', Stefan H. Doerr and Cristina Santín "Analysis of charcoal records in sediments and isotope-ratio records in ice cores suggest that global biomass burning during the past century has been lower than at any time in the past 2000 years." The climate system is inherently complex and chaotic. There are no absolutes or certainties that can accurately be projected with our current knowledge and methods. There is only non-linearity, chaos, and ultimately uncertainty. That makes determining future reality within a reasonable amount of accuracy, even with the use of wide ranges of variability, not only difficult but conditional, tentative, and inconclusive. IPCC Third Assessment Report, Advancing Our Understanding, Chapter 14 Executive Summary states: “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive and requires the application of new methods of model diagnosis, but such statistical information is essential.” We need a realistic risk assessment climate policy that is sensible, flexible and progressive but not oblivious to current and future reality either socially, economically, politically, or scientifically. It is important and useful to develop regionalized and localized vulnerability strategies relative to future climate states. A well executed vulnerability strategy includes all aspects of environmental risks and identifies any specific regions and localities that may be more susceptible to any particular type of environmental disruption caused by changes in climate. We can use the tools of climate models, paleo records, historical knowledge, and past abrupt worst case scenarios and apply them to current social, economic, and political conditions to develop a workable vulnerability strategy. Accordingly, we need a reasonable, responsible, well crafted climate policy that realizes and understands the needs of today and the immediate future as well as preparing us for the uncertainties of the distant future. We cannot let zealous alarmism guide climate policy. We must act in a sensible, rational way and with enough foresight to devise a carefully considered plan of action and not take extreme highly emotional and politically motivated actions that cause more harm to society than they do good. Finally, we need to realize and understand the complexities and uncertainties of the future climate and elect leaders who would calmly and rationally evaluate climate policy in light of reality and reason, not extreme hypothetical conjecture. Michael R. Arndt, retired, former employee of The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-National Weather Service (NOAA-NWS) and the U.S. Army Atmospheric Sciences Laboratory (ASL) Dr. Karl Svozil, Ao. Univ. Professor at the Institute for Theoretical Physics of the Vienna University of Technology. Alumni of the Centre for Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science of the University of Auckland. tph.tuwien.ac.at/~svozil/Any views or opinions represented on this opinion piece do not represent those of people, institutions or organizations that the owner(s) may or may not be associated with in professional or personal capacity unless explicitly stated. Any views or opinions are not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, or individual. The preceding editorial was edited and shortened by a word limit. Here is the full detailed version. Climate Op-Ed-detailed.docx (17.17 KB) -PA
|
|
|
Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jul 24, 2020 10:05:43 GMT -5
I recall a crazy woman posting there who pretty much argued about everything. Can't recall her name though. Well really that could be just about any woman, lolol
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Jul 30, 2020 18:23:02 GMT -5
Isaias Update*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES 30 JUL 2020 4:55 PM EDT Current spaghetti plots are continuing to move Isaias father east as it tracks NW and then veers N/NE. Warm Atlantic water temperatures will help strengthen the storm in the near term but shear and land interaction will inhibit future growth. There is also a bit of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL), a dry, hot layer of air with dirt, sand, and dust. This mid level atmospheric event causes a temperature inversion and suppresses convective development. To strengthen, Isaias would have to overcome the elements of this environment, an unlikely task. It still bears watching as it will pass very near the Miami area sometime Saturday and possibly very near the coast of North Carolina Outer Banks maybe late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical force winds could affect parts of the eastern coast of southern Florida are less likely in NC. Current information keeps enhanced precipitation off the coast in southern Florida but 2-5" is possible in parts of eastern NC. The right forward (i.e. strongest) quadrant looks to stay east of coastal areas minimizing the most severe weather to coastal areas.This storm bears watching as a slight deviation in the current path could alter the future path and provide enhanced winds and precipitation, especially to areas in southern and central Florida. Barring blocking atmospheric conditions such as strong inverted troughs or high pressure ridges, climatology and historical analogs often push these storms to the N/NE. Current indications are that Isaias will develop into a strong tropical storm and may attain CAT 1 status. The majority of information currently available projects a tropical storm or weak CAT 1 hurricane at most with CAT 2/3 unlikely, especially as it nears the Florida coast. More information about hurricanes can be found in the 'Hurricane Information' section on my web page. www.climate.metman1.com/weatherforecasts.html. Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc. -PA
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Jul 31, 2020 15:33:51 GMT -5
Isaias Update*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES 31 JUL 2020 3:45 PM EDT Isaias continues to track NW at ~15MPH through the Bahamas and will eventually veer N/NNE as it skirts Florida and moves up the coast. Warm Atlantic ocean temperatures helped strengthen the storm in the near term but shear and land interaction will inhibit future growth. Isaias has developed into a weak CAT 1 hurricane in an area of low shear and warm waters but significant intensification is not likely. A Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in Florida also contradicts intensification. Several inches of rain are possible in some areas of eastern Florida as Isaias tracks northward. At this time it appears that Isaias and the heavier rains will remain off the coast of Florida but a small drift in the path cold put parts of eastern Florida into stronger tropical storm and briefly but unlikely hurricane force winds and more severe weather and much heavier rain. The current data indicates the path to remain just off the Florida coast but an upper level trough will not push it quite as far east as anticipated yesterday and it’s likely to make landfall as a weak CAT 1 storm somewhere in central SC to southern NC. Some severe weather is now expected as Isaias makes landfall and 2-6″ of rain or more is possible in central and eastern SC, NC, and VA. The right forward quadrant with the most severe weather will come into play briefly as Isaias makes landfall in SC/NC as a weak Cat 1 or strong tropical storm, likely sometime Monday PM but intensity/winds will drop rapidly upon making landfall. More information about hurricanes can be found in the 'Hurricane Information' section on my web page. www.climate.metman1.com/weatherforecasts.html. Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc. -PA
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Aug 1, 2020 9:46:52 GMT -5
Isaias Update*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES 1 Aug 2020 10:05 AM EDT Isaias continues to move NW and the speed has slowed slightly to 12 MPH. While the slowing is good for a future path away from coastal areas it allows the storm to create heavier rain and wind impacts in the near future. Isaias’s future path will shift slightly east as she interacts with an upper level trough making expected landfall slightly farther north and a bit later than previously expected, possibly on the southern coastal area of NC. As expected, Isaias continues to be disorganized with no clearly distinguished eye/eyewall, most likely due to an infusion of dry air and wind shear aloft. Isaias will continue to encounter dry air and shear in the near future keeping the system disorganized and hindering any significant escalation of intensity. Here is a view of the dry air being infused into Isaias and the dry air it will encounter in its path. In Florida, Isaias’s impact is now likely to be felt Sunday into Monday with waves of 10-12 feet, possible storm surge, tropical force winds/wind gusts, and 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts in extreme eastern areas, especially central Florida. The heaviest rain is still projected to be off the coast. Isaias will likely make landfall in southern NC as a tropical storm and continue NE near the coastline. The right forward quadrant with the most severe weather will come into play briefly if Isaias makes landfall expected sometime Monday PM or Tuesday AM. 2-6" of rain or more is possible in central and eastern SC and NC while 1-2" is possible in SE GA. South Carolina impact is still possible and if the storm moves more slowly than expected Isaias could turn to the NE earlier and avoid landfall all together. While tropical storm Isaias will be much less intense after landfall, 50-60 MPH wind gusts and heavy rainfall of 2-6″ or more could still affect parts of southern VA, DE, eastern MD, NJ and southeastern NY and eventually southern and eastern New England. More information about hurricanes can be found in the 'Hurricane Information' section on my web page. Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc. -PA
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Aug 2, 2020 12:13:38 GMT -5
Isaias Update*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES 2 Aug 2020 11:15 AM EDT Isaias continues to move NW at 8-9 MPH. The slower speed has allowed Isaias to move slightly farther to the west than previously forecasted and will come very close or possible touch the coast in central Florida. Isaias is now a tropical storm and is not expected to reach hurricane status again. Isaias's path will slowly shift to the NNW and then eventually to the NE as she approaches the Carolinas and interacts with the upper level trough. Isaias will likely make landfall in central/northern SC, maybe near Myrtle Beach late Monday or early Tuesday. A southern NC landfall is still a possibility. Isaias's forward speed will gradually increase today and then continue to increase as she turns to the NE. Because of the slight shift in path Isaias is now likely to remain slightly inland after landfall as she continues NE through NC, VA, NJ and into New England. This will provide strong gusty winds and heavy rains to those areas. If the inland path comes to fruition the rainfall in coastal areas north of SC will be significantly reduced as the heavier rains are likely to be more inland. If Isaias's path does turn slightly east off the coast, winds and rainfall will be enhanced in the coastal areas. As Isaias moves along the Florida coast today and into early Monday, tropical storm winds are possible near the coast and rainfall of 1-3" with 3-5" or more in some areas near the central Florida coast. As Isaias continues to the NE expect 1-2", isolated 2"+ along coastal GA. Eastern SC could receive 4-8" and 2-6" of rainfall is expected as she moves to the NE. This will be accompanied by 35-45 MPH or more sustained winds with gusts to 60 MPH or more in some areas just north of landfall and 25-40 MPH sustained winds with 50-60 MPH winds gusts north of the storm center as she progresses NE. After landfall winds will rapidly decrease on the western side of the storm as you move father from the center of the storm. The decrease in wind speed is much more gradual on the eastern side and can increase for several hundred miles before decreasing. More information about hurricanes can be found in the 'Hurricane Information' section on my web page. Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Aug 3, 2020 17:21:11 GMT -5
Isaias Update*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES 3 Aug 2020 5:35 PM EDT Tropical Storm Isaias continues to track NNE at ~16 MPH. Isaias will continue to move NNE/NE as she moves through SC, NC, VA and up the east coast. Isaias is still on track to make landfall late Monday night between Myrtle Beach, SC and Southport, NC, most likely still a tropical storm. Isaias could briefly reach a weak CAT 1 status prior to landfall but that's doubtful. Storm surge of 3-4' 50-75 miles on either side of landfall is likely. Rainfall totals, wind speeds and track deviate little from my previous updates although a few areas near the storm track could get 6-8" amounts in SC, NC and VA and points north of VA will generally be 2-4" with isolated areas up to 6" areas. More information about hurricanes can be found in the 'Hurricane Information' section on my web page. Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Aug 4, 2020 10:31:54 GMT -5
Isaias Update*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES 4 Aug 2020 11:25 AM EDT Isaias made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane at 11:10 p.m. EDT Monday near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina, just to the northeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Isaias attained CAT 1 status several hours before making landfall and was downgraded to a tropical storm in the early morning hours on Tuesday. Path now is just slightly west of the last update. Isaias is currently tracking just east of Baltimore and will pass just west of Philadelphia soon. Several outbreaks of severe weather in NC in the right forward quadrant (i.e. NE side) as Isaias approached landfall and moved inland. Otherwise, forecasted winds and rainfall amounts are being realized as expected as she tracks to the NNE at 35MPH and increases in forward speed. Isaias will continue to move NNE and exit into Canada near midnight tonight. More information about hurricanes can be found in the 'Hurricane Information' section on my web page. Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
|
|