|
Post by PABraveFan on Jan 19, 2023 17:37:31 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Jan 21, 2023 22:41:44 GMT -5
This Video Destroys the Climate Change Hoax
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Feb 12, 2023 16:45:08 GMT -5
*** WEATHER OUTLOOK*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES℠ 12 Feb 2023 3:45 PM EDT Winter isn’t quite over yet…A brief look at late Winter and early Spring
There is a strong possibility that the Polar Vortex will be disrupted under the influence of an imminent sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event reducing or reversing the zonal wind flow. More will be known about future weather patterns in the U.S. once the SSW event begins. Exact location of anomalies, expansion, downward propagation, and stratospheric-tropospheric coupling will be key to the extent of the changes we experience here in the U.S. Movement of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) could also be involved. A disrupted vortex could reverse the current positive Artic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases to negative and increases the chances of frigid arctic air incursions into the U.S,, although northern Europe tends to be more impacted, and interaction with warmer air masses approaching from the south may cause enhanced wintry precipitation. This could create alternate periods of colder and snowier weather to many places very late Feb and March. Look for some changes in weather patterns starting later in Feb. They may not be extreme (but could be in some areas) but we should generally transition away from the unseasonably warm February weather to at least slightly below average temps and slightly above average precipitation, and somewhat stormier. Long term climate analogs would limit any extreme projections at this time. It could also be a cooler and wetter Spring also depending on the extent and persistence of the disruption.
-PA
Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
|
|
|
Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Feb 12, 2023 17:25:29 GMT -5
So how many of these frigid incursions are going to affect Atlanta? I can't take another year of my hydrangeas not blooming.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Feb 12, 2023 17:47:09 GMT -5
So how many of these frigid incursions are going to affect Atlanta? I can't take another year of my hydrangeas not blooming. Hard to tell right now but I'd say several. It's also possible that the worst of the situation could go entirely east of us or just affect northern Europe. More will be known in the next week or two as we get closer to the surface impacts of vortex disruption.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Feb 20, 2023 13:53:44 GMT -5
2/13/2023 "A major disruption of the polar vortex (PV) is increasingly likely based on weather model forecasts referred to as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Often following SSWs, more severe wintry weather becomes more widespread across the Northern Europe and Asia. But instead, the models are predicting colder temperatures widespread across North America with well above normal temperatures in Europe and Asia (see Figure 9). However, I do think an unusual PV disruption is occurring and more classical impacts are likely in March that include colder temperatures across Northern Europe and/or Asia." www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Feb 20, 2023 13:56:40 GMT -5
" A major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) that occurred yesterday (February 16th) resulted in a complete zonal wind reversal at 10 hPa, and could set the stage for colder weather in March highly dependent on how it couples with the troposphere below. While there is no guarantee this SSWE will affect eastern North America, odds are that a blocking pattern may develop over Greenland, and the current +NAO and +AO configuration could completely reverse to negative. This will would theoretically, combined with the MJO in a dominant phase 8 cycle shown on all guidance for at least early March, lead to a much colder look to March which is our going projection maintained over the past few weeks. This type of pattern could yield some late-season snow events in an otherwise well below average Winter overall. It’s likely not enough to “save Winter” so to speak, but historically March has been known to produce some memorable snowfalls…and it is still Winter through 5:24pm EDT on March 20th. Given the lead time in the extended range, confidence remains lower for this evolution, but has been consistently shown on some of the longer range climate guidance, EPS-weeklies, GEFS-extended, and CFSv2. The SSWE propagation and its coupling to the troposphere (and for where) will be monitored closely over the next 2 weeks, and is considered a wildcard. If the effects are felt over Eastern North America (indeterminable yet) an SSWE’s effects can last anywhere from 30-45 days. Still a big “if” though. Step 1: A major SSWE occurs with complete zonal wind reversal…CHECK Step 2: Couples with the troposphere below (modeled to, but unknown) Step 3: Tropospheric response to a particular area of the Northern Hemisphere (unknown)" EPAWA Weather Consulting, LLC is a meteorological consulting firm headquartered in Lehigh Valley, PA, which provides customized forecasts to business entities in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. We offer both free public forecasts and specialized business client forecasts, customized and tailored to their needs.
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Feb 26, 2023 22:21:43 GMT -5
*** WEATHER OUTLOOK*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES℠ 26 Feb 2023 4:45 PM EDT Winter isn’t quite over yet…A brief look at late Winter and early Spring (Update)The polar vortex continues to be disrupted by a relatively unconventional Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that occurred on February 16. Numerical models are picking up on expected SSW effects and they are now evident in long term models as well. Stratospheric/tropospheric coupling is evolving but how it ultimately affects the troposphere and surface weather still has many questions in regards to when, where, and persistence. Geopotential height anomalies are currently inconclusive. Currently a strong ridge in SE US is blocking any advancement of cold air but as March wears on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), also referred to as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), will become negative and colder air will likely penetrate deeper into the US. It remains to be seen how far south the cold air can advance as we move later into March. The expected signature Greenland blocking high pressure associated with a SSW event seems inevitable based in numerous model depictions. The polar vortex disruption classification (displacement or split) is still unknown. This disruption could also evolve from a displacement to a split. If and when the polar vortex splits there is an enhanced probability that cold air could be funneled into some areas of northern, central, and the Mid Atlantic US or even farther south. Currently the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to reach Phase 8 and be in place by the the 2nd week of March and in conjunction with the SSW propagation and coupling, March eventually turns notably colder, and possibly a bit snowier, by the middle to end of that 2nd week and into the foreseeable future. Prior to that temperatures in the mid Atlantic region will likely still remain average to slightly above average and atmospheric conditions a bit more unsettled, somewhat colder in northern areas into New England, and increasing chances for precipitation, including snow. IMO, the two weeks (Mar 10-24) in the middle of March will be the optimal time for a winter storm on the east coast and otherwise several other chances for snow with colder air more prevalent. Overcoming climatological barriers will diminish the chances of extreme snow events as we end March but things could be a bit cooler and wetter than normal making for a drearier start to Spring. That being said this is an extremely fluid situation with much unpredictability, especially when trying to define the changes and outcomes from this event many weeks in advance. Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc. climate.metman1.com/weatherforecasts.html
|
|
|
Post by Fumbduckery on Feb 28, 2023 2:43:58 GMT -5
This is interesting, talks a lot about weather manipulation:
TACKLING THE CHEMTRAIL CONTROVERSY
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Mar 3, 2023 21:08:26 GMT -5
They are finally catching up. About a month late but they came around! March Sadness: Colder Air To Engulf Much Of The East And South Next Week
"The cold air arrives around midweek: While the colder air initially will be bottled up in the West and Plains, it is expected to spread into the East beginning Wednesday and then plunge into the South, including Florida and the Gulf Coast, late in the week into next weekend."
"Yes, the polar vortex may have some influence on this: In case you're curious, it appears the polar vortex played some role in this pattern change."
"But starting in mid-February, the polar vortex was weakened and shifted away from the North Pole by sharp warming known as a sudden stratospheric warming event."
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Mar 3, 2023 22:10:54 GMT -5
*** WEATHER UPDATE*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES℠ 3 Mar 2023 9:55 AM EDT The Polar Vortex was stretched in late January and then after the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW) event on 2/16 that disrupted/weakened the Polar Vortex it became evident that a colder wetter pattern was very possible. This was discussed previously in more detail in my "Winter isn't over yet" updates of 2/12 and 2/26. The classic Greenland blocking setup has been in long range numerical models for a while now. Stratospheric-tropospheric coupling is now ongoing, as expected though a bit unusual, geopotential heights anomalies are favorable, and it now appears starting later next week that colder, wetter and snowier (where possible) periods are likely for at least several weeks across most of the central, eastern and even extending into the southern US. The duration of this event and its effects are yet to be determined but this pattern could linger later into March and maybe into April.
Winter isn't over yet!
Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc. www.climate.metman1.com/weatherforecasts.html
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Mar 9, 2023 9:14:42 GMT -5
Simplified explanation of the Polar Vortex...
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Mar 11, 2023 19:29:18 GMT -5
*** WEATHER OUTLOOK*** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES℠ 11 Mar 2023 1:45 PM EDT
Winter isn’t quite over yet…A brief look at late Winter and early Spring (2nd Update)The polar vortex continues to be disrupted/weakened by a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that occurred on February 16. To this point, the global tropospheric response to the SSW event has been a bit disappointing and relatively unimpressive overall notwithstanding the SSW driven heavy snows in New England recently and the cold in northern Europe including the UK, a signature SSW event response. A short term stronger response is expected in the near future in the U.S. as the AO and NAO are expected to be negative in the short term, however, the AO is trending towards neutral over the next several weeks. Model incongruities that bear watching could limit long term SSW impacts but at least for now are not affecting long range outlooks and look to be outliers. The upward planetary wave flux responsible for the SSW induced polar vortex disruption has reversed and downward wave flux is now strengthening the polar vortex. Undoubtedly, I am not highly accomplished enough for an in depth discussion of Rossby/planetary waves. Historical analogs indicate that a Stratospheric Final Warming (SFW), primarily caused by solar radiative heating, will likely be delayed somewhat because of this SSW event. As discussed in my previous update the period March 10-24 appears to be the greatest chance for arctic incursions and snowfall as the effects of the polar vortex align with Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Phase 8. It appears the greatest chance will materialize early to mid next week (Figure 1). As winter wanes and we approach the Spring (vernal) equinox in the Northern Hemisphere any cold outbreaks or snowfall that may result from residual effects of the weakened, although now strengthening, polar vortex will be seasonally restricted as well. Mostly colder than normal temperatures should persist for at least the next several weeks not only in central and eastern U.S. but for most of the country. For much of the east coast, a few days of above normal temperatures are also likely later next week before temperatures return to somewhat below normal again through March and into April. Precipitation is still expected to generally be above normal through March. April is still unknown as the effects of this event on surface weather begin to diminish but long range outlooks are trending slightly colder and wetter than normal.
Figure 1. Total Snowfall
Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc. www.climate.metman1.com/weatherforecasts.html
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Mar 12, 2023 13:52:39 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by PABraveFan on Mar 12, 2023 20:08:07 GMT -5
So how many of these frigid incursions are going to affect Atlanta? I can't take another year of my hydrangeas not blooming. Atlanta Metro region chances for temps at or below freezing especially in outlying areas Tue AM 3/14, Wed AM 3/15, Thur AM 3/16 Sun AM 3/19, Mon AM 3/20, Tue AM 3/21 Chances become much lower after 3/21 See animated GIF's below. Click on the GIF for forecasted lows for the above periods from the European model based on the 3/12/2023 12Z run.
-PA
3/14 - 3/16 3/19 - 3/21
|
|