Post by brady2705 on Jun 9, 2018 6:50:52 GMT -5
Figured I'd do some exploring of the StatCast data. Everyone understands BABIP (significantly above .300 usually implies good fortune, significantly below implies you've hit into bad-luck). But can we dive deeper?
baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search
Lets look at the StatCast data. Here's the basic formula I'm working with:
((weak contact that result in hits) - ("Barrels" & "Solid contact" that result in outs)) / (balls put in play)
For the "balls put in play," I've simply removed HRs, Ks, and sacrifice bunts.
Here are the results:
Ryan Flaherty 0.115
Ender Inciarte 0.096
Preston Tucker 0.092
Charlie Culberson 0.083
Dansby Swanson 0.068
Ronald Acuna 0.067
Nick Markakis 0.051
Peter Bourjos 0.045
Ozzie Albies 0.039
--------------------------
Kurt Suzuki 0.030
Tyler Flowers 0.022
Freddie Freeman 0.005
Johan Camargo -
Jose Bautista -
Top of the list are the lucky guys, bottom of the list are the unlucky guys (holy smokes Freddie Freeman!). Now we need to give that list some context by looking at all MLB. Here's what I've deduced:
Across all MLB, the average (mean) luck-score is .031 -- I inserted a line in our table above, everyone above it has been somewhat lucky to various degrees, guys below it have been unlucky.
The standard deviation is .049, which means that as long as your score ranges between -.019 and +.081, you're within the middle 66% of scores (meaning you're not that far apart). I've colored these guys yellow and green, depending upon whether you're above/below the mean. The short version is you'll notice none of our guys have been "Horribly" unlucky. Kurt, Tyler, Freddie and Johan have all hit into some bad luck, but it's nothing horrendous. You might also notice these are some of our slower runners, whereas most of our lucky guys (green and blue colors) are generally faster runners ... perhaps there's a bit of "making your own luck" involved.
So what does this mean? Well, my fear is it means we've generally been "lucky" as an offense, which stands to reason that we will regress offensively. Perhaps that is what we've been witnessing lately.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search
Lets look at the StatCast data. Here's the basic formula I'm working with:
((weak contact that result in hits) - ("Barrels" & "Solid contact" that result in outs)) / (balls put in play)
For the "balls put in play," I've simply removed HRs, Ks, and sacrifice bunts.
Here are the results:
Ryan Flaherty 0.115
Ender Inciarte 0.096
Preston Tucker 0.092
Charlie Culberson 0.083
Dansby Swanson 0.068
Ronald Acuna 0.067
Nick Markakis 0.051
Peter Bourjos 0.045
Ozzie Albies 0.039
--------------------------
Kurt Suzuki 0.030
Tyler Flowers 0.022
Freddie Freeman 0.005
Johan Camargo -
Jose Bautista -
Top of the list are the lucky guys, bottom of the list are the unlucky guys (holy smokes Freddie Freeman!). Now we need to give that list some context by looking at all MLB. Here's what I've deduced:
Across all MLB, the average (mean) luck-score is .031 -- I inserted a line in our table above, everyone above it has been somewhat lucky to various degrees, guys below it have been unlucky.
The standard deviation is .049, which means that as long as your score ranges between -.019 and +.081, you're within the middle 66% of scores (meaning you're not that far apart). I've colored these guys yellow and green, depending upon whether you're above/below the mean. The short version is you'll notice none of our guys have been "Horribly" unlucky. Kurt, Tyler, Freddie and Johan have all hit into some bad luck, but it's nothing horrendous. You might also notice these are some of our slower runners, whereas most of our lucky guys (green and blue colors) are generally faster runners ... perhaps there's a bit of "making your own luck" involved.
So what does this mean? Well, my fear is it means we've generally been "lucky" as an offense, which stands to reason that we will regress offensively. Perhaps that is what we've been witnessing lately.
