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Post by Fumbduckery on Jul 14, 2021 23:02:25 GMT -5
My frustration with Dansby is the ridiculous level of inconsistency. Someday I may invent a new stat that reflects a hitter's consistency. The starting point for me is to set a level where you think a guy was of help with the bat during each game. That could be doable. You either get a yes or a no for each game. I have a feeling that Dansby would come out way on the losing end of that because he bunches his hot streaks so much.
Take this set first--over ten games a hitter goes:
0-3 0-5 1-4 0-3 0-5 0-4 0-5 2-5 0-4 0-4
And a 10 game set where a guy goes:
3-4 with two HRs 3-3 2B
1-3 2B
0-4
3-5 HR 2-3 HR and 2B
0-5 1-5 0-4 0-5
So in the first set he hurt you in 8, maybe 9 games, and helped you in 5 games in the second set.
That does not even out in my opinion. And that's what Dansby does.
Look at his monthly OPS this year:
April: .582 May: .876 June: .707 July: 1.011
If you look at his game logs then in any given month you'll see the bunching--look at July--he's played 10 games and has that really high OPS. But in 5 of those 10 games he's 2-18. So how much did he really help overall on a daily or near daily basis? Conversely, if you look at his game logs in a bad month, like April, he had a total of 4 games where he had more than one hit.
I know someone is going to say this happens to all players, but I'd be willing to bet Dansby is the king of the inconsistency because he goes to extremes. He does not help us with the bat anywhere nearly as often as he helps us, and the eye test alone can see that's obvious. But it's easy to back up with just this little bit of info I've just pointed out.
To me the bunching skews his actual contribution and his OPS, much more than it does for the average player.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jul 14, 2021 23:27:02 GMT -5
My frustration with Dansby is the ridiculous level of inconsistency. Someday I may invent a new stat that reflects a hitter's consistency. The starting point for me is to set a level where you think a guy was of help with the bat during each game. That could be doable. You either get a yes or a no for each game. I have a feeling that Dansby would come out way on the losing end of that because he bunches his hot streaks so much.
Take this set first--over ten games a hitter goes:
0-3 0-5 1-4 0-3 0-5 0-4 0-5 2-5 0-4 0-4 And a 10 game set where a guy goes: 3-4 with two HRs 3-3 2B
1-3 2B
0-4
3-5 HR 2-3 HR and 2B
0-5 1-5 0-4 0-5 So in the first set he hurt you in 8, maybe 9 games, and helped you in 5 games in the second set. That does not even out in my opinion. And that's what Dansby does. Look at his monthly OPS this year: April: .582 May: .876 June: .707 July: 1.011 If you look at his game logs then in any given month you'll see the bunching--look at July--he's played 10 games and has that really high OPS. But in 5 of those 10 games he's 2-18. So how much did he really help overall on a daily or near daily basis? Conversely, if you look at his game logs in a bad month, like April, he had a total of 4 games where he had more than one hit. I know someone is going to say this happens to all players, but I'd be willing to bet Dansby is the king of the inconsistency because he goes to extremes. He does not help us with the bat anywhere nearly as often as he helps us, and the eye test alone can see that's obvious. But it's easy to back up with just this little bit of info I've just pointed out.
To me the bunching skews his actual contribution and his OPS, much more than it does for the average player.
Geez... folks.. What I was saying was not meant to defend Dansby, it was just meant to point out how we can't definitively declare Contreras is a guy who is going to hit consistently at the MLB level just yet. I'm done.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jul 14, 2021 23:48:55 GMT -5
I knew what your point was and I agree with you, even though I didn't say so.
My only comment about Constreras was that I think he'll be a good major league hitter, and then I did add to that "as he gains experience." And that was all I have to say about him.
But it got me to thinking some more about the issue with Dansby. I didn't take it that you were talking Dansby up and I did not mean to counter that by talking him down. I was just voicing in more detail his inconsistency issue that I've mentioned several times before.
Just to further beat that dead horse, I took a quick look at Dansby's May game logs--we played 26 games, Dansby had an .876 OPS in May, yet he still had 14 games where he went either 0-3, 0-4, 1-4 or 1-5. I feel pretty certain that would not be the norm among MLB players if enough research was done on a wide scale.
It's just an attempt to put a quantity on what every single one of us already knows, he's very inconsistent. When he's hot he bunches his hits and doubles and home runs, and he also goes really long stretches where he's ice cold and looks horribly lost.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jul 15, 2021 9:08:51 GMT -5
Absolutely correct on Dansby and the lack of consistency with any batter is one of the things I find the most frustrating. I hated it with Justin Upton as well. The total numbers many refer to skewers how valuable a player truly is on a game by game basis.
In evaluating players I wish stats showing consistency was more readily available.
RBI and Hit games - Total games in which a player contributes any amount of RBI's or games with hits. You could even get more analytical by calculating weighted measures where 0 hit and RBI games pull down the figure you are calculating, all designed to show you consistency levels.
I guarantee you would see enlightening data on a lot of guys.
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Post by wncbravesfan on Jul 15, 2021 9:46:09 GMT -5
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Post by keystone61 on Jul 15, 2021 12:50:24 GMT -5
Good to see folks finally beginning to see that batting average actually does matter.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jul 15, 2021 13:50:22 GMT -5
Absolutely correct on Dansby and the lack of consistency with any batter is one of the things I find the most frustrating. I hated it with Justin Upton as well. The total numbers many refer to skewers how valuable a player truly is on a game by game basis. In evaluating players I wish stats showing consistency was more readily available. RBI and Hit games - Total games in which a player contributes any amount of RBI's or games with hits. You could even get more analytical by calculating weighted measures where 0 hit and RBI games pull down the figure you are calculating, all designed to show you consistency levels. I guarantee you would see enlightening data on a lot of guys. Yes you're on the same page that I was in this thinking, and for me it goes back as far as when Justin Upton was with us, because he was one of those guys that would go 35 games in a row without adding almost anything to the offense, and then carry the team for two weeks. While those two weeks were wonderful, to me you were losing ground with that guy. And I think it's one of the intangibles we talk about when we say stats can't always predict who will win a pennant.
I do think the stat would have to be weighted, I agree with your suggestions, and I think walks, strikeouts and grounding into double plays could be figured into it too.
I've been playing fantasy baseball games for 10 years now, and when you do that and you follow so many players on other teams you realize that every player in the game has streaks. But some definitely more up and down than normal, and that is totally unaccounted for in all the modern day stats even. Maybe I could revolutionize the way the game is looked at, call it the fumbduck effect.
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Post by SuperBrave on Jul 15, 2021 14:29:38 GMT -5
What do you guys think of Ozuna? Will he even see the field in the second half?
I'm sure we will move on from him.
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Post by wncbravesfan on Jul 15, 2021 15:51:10 GMT -5
MLB makes it official with a press release:
“Following positive COVID-19 tests within the New York Yankees organization, tonight’s game between the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium has been postponed to allow for continued testing and contact tracing.”
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2021 16:14:36 GMT -5
Good to see folks finally beginning to see that batting average actually does matter. Always did though both batting average and on base percentage are both important. Getting them on, over and in is still good baseball. A stolen base is still worth a try for the right guys And, a strikeout is not just another out, nothing can be good with a strikeout. The game has gotten so OPS crazy that its trying to make HR hitters out of everybody and the game was never meant to be that I like OPS for the power hitters, but there should still be a place for the Juan Pierre and Brett Butlers of the world.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jul 15, 2021 16:51:17 GMT -5
MLB makes it official with a press release:
“Following positive COVID-19 tests within the New York Yankees organization, tonight’s game between the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium has been postponed to allow for continued testing and contact tracing.” And so the fun begins again, the lies and the lockdowns that didn’t work before. They say the lockdowns will be more severe this time. Gotta fight the tyranny this time.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Jul 15, 2021 17:21:22 GMT -5
Batting average has always meant something.
The issue is the value of a .290 hitter who hits singles and doubles vs a .240 batter that mashes doubles and home-runs.
Even BA though can be affected by consistency. I think I would like the guy that gets 1-2 hits consistently vs a guy that gives you 4 O-fer games and then goes 4-4 once a week.
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Post by keystone61 on Jul 15, 2021 17:29:06 GMT -5
MLB makes it official with a press release:
“Following positive COVID-19 tests within the New York Yankees organization, tonight’s game between the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium has been postponed to allow for continued testing and contact tracing.” And so the fun begins again, the lies and the lockdowns that didn’t work before. They say the lockdowns will be more severe this time. Gotta fight the tyranny this time. You got it, and I really think you're right. People have seen this movie and they don't like the ending. There will be pushback, much more than before. IMO
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Post by keystone61 on Jul 15, 2021 17:35:46 GMT -5
And it just happens to be the Yankees and the Red Sox. Hmmmmmm
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2021 17:37:10 GMT -5
As for valuing consistency, the best resource we have is to look at the game logs, Sports reference is my favorite place to look at all the sports vs fangraphs
I wish that speed were as valued as it used to be. The taking of that extra base and a stolen base can wake up a team in a slump
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