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Post by keystone61 on May 12, 2021 21:20:16 GMT -5
I like college basketball and major league baseball. The NBA has ruined college basketball with the one and done rule, and analytics has ruined baseball. I'm gonna focus on fishing.
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 12, 2021 21:30:46 GMT -5
I like college basketball and major league baseball. The NBA has ruined college basketball with the one and done rule, and analytics has ruined baseball. I'm gonna focus on fishing. You should look for a book called "The Analytics of Better Fishing"
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Post by keystone61 on May 15, 2021 11:33:26 GMT -5
Trade Freeman? Let him walk? 2 words..........Albert. Pujols. Two more words. Miguel. Cabrera. Who would have thought those guys would have gone downhill so fast? I don't want to hang onto a guy because of his name and/or what he did in the past. I want players who can produce on the field now and in the future. Is Freeman such a player? I don't know. It certainly is looking a lot more doubtful today than it did a year ago though, isn't it? Sentimentality is fine, but it's no way to run a baseball team. Look at the Angels and the Tigers, Pujols and Cabrera's teams. They have done nothing for years, and those 2 contracts are a pretty big reason why, IMO. I don't want to be the Angels or the Tigers, and I don't really want to be doling out a $150 million contract to a 32-year-old player (I really think Freeman will be able to support his family if we decide to let him go). I have thought about this a LOT, and it might be a mistake (one that could very well get me fired), but if I'm the GM and I had to make this decision, I'd let him go. That's right, I said it. I'd let him go, and I'd do my dam/ndest to sign Corey Seager (who is from NC and 5 years younger), make him my 3rd baseman and move Riley to 1st base.
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 15, 2021 14:47:13 GMT -5
Trade Freeman? Let him walk? 2 words.......... Albert. Pujols. Two more words. Miguel. Cabrera. Who would have thought those guys would have gone downhill so fast? I don't want to hang onto a guy because of his name and/or what he did in the past. I want players who can produce on the field now and in the future. Is Freeman such a player? I don't know. It certainly is looking a lot more doubtful today than it did a year ago though, isn't it? Sentimentality is fine, but it's no way to run a baseball team. Look at the Angels and the Tigers, Pujols and Cabrera's teams. They have done nothing for years, and those 2 contracts are a pretty big reason why, IMO. I don't want to be the Angels or the Tigers, and I don't really want to be doling out a $150 million contract to a 32-year-old player (I really think Freeman will be able to support his family if we decide to let him go). I have thought about this a LOT, and it might be a mistake (one that could very well get me fired), but if I'm the GM and I had to make this decision, I'd let him go. That's right, I said it. I'd let him go, and I'd do my dam/ndest to sign Corey Seager (who is from NC and 5 years younger), make him my 3rd baseman and move Riley to 1st base. Two heavy set not especially athletic guys versus a very fit Freddie. To me Chipper would be a better comparison at that age. Chipper did have some injuries but he still produced.
I think Freddie will produce for another 5 years, that's all he'll be looking to sign for, and he'll do it more reasonably than people are expecting.
He's in a slump now and eventually he's going to hit .578 for three weeks with 12 home runs and we'll all be praying AA signs him.
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Post by keystone61 on May 15, 2021 15:17:21 GMT -5
Yep, you're a Braves fan, alright. Always afraid to think outside the box and make the bold move......LMAO. Question. What if Freddie winds up at .240 with less than his typical production and lots of strikeouts. Is he sliding downhill or is it just a bad year? How much do you gamble on that? His swing is pretty unusual, you know.
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 15, 2021 16:07:10 GMT -5
Yep, you're a Braves fan, alright. Always afraid to think outside the box and make the bold move......LMAO. Question. What if Freddie winds up at .240 with less than his typical production and lots of strikeouts. Is he sliding downhill or is it just a bad year? How much do you gamble on that? His swing is pretty unusual, you know. Well you got me there, I'm the ultimate company man, Snitker for the HOF and Tomlin for Cy Young!
All things considered with his swing, Freddie has been incredibly consistent from year to year. Way more consistent than you typically see from ballplayers nowadays. Plus he understands his swing and works on it a lot.
Every move you make or don't make is a gamble, and based on what I've seen from him he's a gamble I would take. If he never turns it around this year it does make it more of a conundrum, but I feel pretty certain he'll be fine.
He and Dansby are both going to be signed. I think Freddie will do 5 years, front loaded to help us pay him less as he ages......it will be like 5 years for $100M, with the pay being $26M, 23, 20, 17,14.
Dansby will get 3 years at $24M unless he ends up with an OPS north of .750 this season. Then he'll get 5 years at somewhere between $40M to 50M.
As much as I do not enjoy watching Dansby, I understand signing him. We can't expect nor afford to have superstars at every position, and this core group of players for whatever reason wins together. When you look at how many teams have tried over the years to buy championships and couldn't even make the playoffs, there are some intangibles that can't be measured and there's no way to figure them out. Maybe not even from the inside. But when you get guys who like each other and win year after year, I understand not wanting to buck that very much. Freddie and Dansby are a big part of why we haven't been winning as much as we usually do, but Dansby will have his typical 2-3 week hot streaks once or twice this season and Freddie will go berserker like always, and we'll suddenly have a 5-8 game lead in the division like always.
It's really frustrating to watch some of the poor play we have this year, but almost all other fans go through the same thing. When you watch your team every day it's easy to latch onto the weaknesses. But it's all through baseball. When you have a winning formula, messing with the core of it is probably not a very good idea. I fully believe Frederick and Dansby are part of the plan, to keep us playoff level good for at least another 5 years, and then we'll be turning a new page and dealing with new realities then.
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 15, 2021 16:46:27 GMT -5
Some more thoughts about Dansby.......I think he's one guy who has been hurt by this whole launch angle/swing for the fences mentality nowadays. He's a pretty wirey guy compared to modern MLBers, and I don't think he lifts much from the looks of him, so he really has to work hard to create MLB level power, and that's the focus of the game now. He has a good enough fundamental swing, but it's so much about generating power he's giving up a lot of contact. If he would cut down and focus on hitting the ball where it's pitched and hitting line drives, spraying liners all around the field like Markakis, he'd be a whole lot better off.
Every time he comes out of a slump you can see it coming because suddenly he's hitting the ball to right field and right center a lot, instead of trying to pull everything and launch everything.
Batting him 5th in the lineup is absolute insanity. They should work him away from that idea of being a middle of the order "power" bat. He's either a 2nd place hitter or 7th place hitter. You don't want to hit him 8th in front of the pitcher because he has a tendency to chase way too much, and he's going to see a lot crappier pitches batting 8th. But if he's hitting you bat him 2nd, if not you bat him 7th.
It wouldn't hurt to move Fred from 2nd to 3rd as well to try to change things for him. I would bat Ozzie 2nd right now, and if Dansby was hitting the way he should then consider him for the 2nd spot.
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Post by keystone61 on May 15, 2021 18:04:07 GMT -5
Excellent thoughts and analysis, and I agree that if we can get Freddie on the type of contract you're talking about, we do it. I really hope you're right, and I really hope that his skills don't disappear overnight. I know most dismiss average these days for whatever reason, but Dan is a guy who needs to hit .300 and can if he does as you say. He's got some pop, so that should mean a lot of doubles. I keep thinking that Acuña and GAPOZ should have some good chemistry at 1-2 but it never seems to happen. Thanks for the well thought out reply.
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 15, 2021 18:34:27 GMT -5
Well so far I've been right about having patience with Riley.
But he does still scare me a little at times.
I'd love to manage a big league baseball team, but even then you're still at the mercy of how the players actually perform, and it's often just a complete crapshoot. You could theoretically make all the right calls and still end up looking like an idiot. But the one thing I know with 100% certainty about baseball is there is no way in heck I'd ever want to be a GM, not even if they offered me eleventy billion dollars to do it. The money would be nice, but if I took over a team and completely ran it down an elevator shaft I'd feel so freaking bad there's no way I could enjoy the money. But we sit at our computers and do all the analysis, and even if it's just educated ideas, we don't ever have to risk having an entire city and fanbase hate our guts forever, and that's a good thing!
I've always been willing to admit that certain things look a certain way to me, but it would end up being a crapshoot, it's human nature and the players are only human, so there's never any givens. I look at players like JTR and Mitch Haniger and think man how in the world do we NOT add this guy, he's such a perfect fit for such a yuge need! But we seldom end up doing what I want to do, and I have to live with that.
Anyhow, I hope I am right about Freddie, and if we do sign Dansby I wish like heck we could turn him into a Markakis hitter.
And at the risk of being too much a milquetoast fan, I get the idea of keeping the crew together as long as we think we'll keep winning, it's the reason I get the idea of keeping Snitker on. (Although as always I'll add the disclaimer that Snitker and Washington could swap places any day and I'd be pretty thrilled about that). As much as I'd love to win 5 World Series in a row, we have to be realistic that it would great if we just put ourselves in a spot to have some kind of shot at it every year and hope we pull it off once or twice.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on May 16, 2021 9:55:27 GMT -5
Trade Freeman? Let him walk? 2 words..........Albert. Pujols. Two more words. Miguel. Cabrera. Who would have thought those guys would have gone downhill so fast? I don't want to hang onto a guy because of his name and/or what he did in the past. I want players who can produce on the field now and in the future. Is Freeman such a player? I don't know. It certainly is looking a lot more doubtful today than it did a year ago though, isn't it? Sentimentality is fine, but it's no way to run a baseball team. Look at the Angels and the Tigers, Pujols and Cabrera's teams. They have done nothing for years, and those 2 contracts are a pretty big reason why, IMO. I don't want to be the Angels or the Tigers, and I don't really want to be doling out a $150 million contract to a 32-year-old player (I really think Freeman will be able to support his family if we decide to let him go). I have thought about this a LOT, and it might be a mistake (one that could very well get me fired), but if I'm the GM and I had to make this decision, I'd let him go. That's right, I said it. I'd let him go, and I'd do my dam/ndest to sign Corey Seager (who is from NC and 5 years younger), make him my 3rd baseman and move Riley to 1st base. Chipper Jones Julio Franco Carl Yastrzemski Carlton Fisk I mean we can keep going down the names on both sides of that coin. Pulling two names out of hat and claiming that is a definitive statement as to why we shouldn't extend Freddie is a weak argument. About 4 weeks ago most everyone here including you if I am not mistaken had declared Riley inept at the plate and a very probably bust, and now you want to let a possible HOF go and replace him with that guy....
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Post by keystone61 on May 17, 2021 8:56:25 GMT -5
I'm not necessarily advocating letting Freeman go as much as I am illustrating the huge risk involved in keeping him at a market price of probably around $150. Thinking outside the box is not something this organization does, though. If we can keep Freeman on terms such as Uck is talking, the Braves should do that. As for Riley, his approach is much better, but the power is not there. I don't give up on guys and I don't make a habit of calling posters out.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on May 17, 2021 13:46:11 GMT -5
To some degree you always reward players later for their previous work. If we overpay Freddie a bit in the last 2 years of an extension, I'll take it for getting him for the past several years on a contract that only paid him $17mm per season on average.
On Riley... just pick a side and be consistent. Is he now the guy you want to hand a corner infield job to for the next 8 years or is he an inconsistent possible bust. He can't be both from month to month.
Plus if we move Riley to 1st and let Free walk, then 3rd base is a huge hole that needs to be filled. What's the answer there if we move Riley to 1st?
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 17, 2021 15:06:12 GMT -5
To some degree you always reward players later for their previous work. If we overpay Freddie a bit in the last 2 years of an extension, I'll take it for getting him for the past several years on a contract that only paid him $17mm per season on average. On Riley... just pick a side and be consistent. Is he now the guy you want to hand a corner infield job to for the next 8 years or is he an inconsistent possible bust. He can't be both from month to month. Plus if we move Riley to 1st and let Free walk, then 3rd base is a huge hole that needs to be filled. What's the answer there if we move Riley to 1st?DUH! DANNY SANTANA!!!
I wouldn't move Riley from third because he's proven to be a really good defensive third baseman.
One thing about Freddie, when I talk about the core playing well together, I think part of that is because Freddie never said one bad word evar about the rebuild and he could have complained about it when we went full Rafiki on that rebuild. He just went out day after day and produced, for years, while we were terrible, and he never said a word. He was committed to the rebuild, our whole organization knows that and remembers, and I think that's part of the reason we should reward him now with an extension. He earned it the old fashion way, and you seldom see that anymore. I also think it's part of the reason he wants to stay and will take a discount, because he always wanted to be part of what came from the rebuild.
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Post by keystone61 on May 18, 2021 8:55:21 GMT -5
To some degree you always reward players later for their previous work. If we overpay Freddie a bit in the last 2 years of an extension, I'll take it for getting him for the past several years on a contract that only paid him $17mm per season on average. On Riley... just pick a side and be consistent. Is he now the guy you want to hand a corner infield job to for the next 8 years or is he an inconsistent possible bust. He can't be both from month to month. Plus if we move Riley to 1st and let Free walk, then 3rd base is a huge hole that needs to be filled. What's the answer there if we move Riley to 1st? That was addressed. Corey Seager.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on May 18, 2021 10:48:27 GMT -5
....and what if you can't sign him?
Knowing the Braves, do you believe you are going to outbid the Dodgers?
I mean it's easy to just say "we will go get this guy", but in reality that's a bit hard to do sometimes.
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