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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 11, 2018 10:09:18 GMT -5
Florence Update Tuesday Sep 11, 2018 10:30 AM EDT
Just a quick note to all. There is very good agreement in all models for this storm and it has the potential to be CATASTROPHIC! Landfall looks to be very late Thursday night to possibly dawn on Friday morning. This will be a very slow moving storm that will most likely hover for several days on or near the coast or just inland (inland would be significantly better) before finally moving inland and eventually slowly dissipating. Expect very heavy rain, catastrophic flooding, high storm surges and plenty of severe weather along the North Carolina Coast and the inland areas in North Carolina, especially areas near and east of I95, but also the southern Virginia and South Carolina coast, before slowly dissipating. The track is currently for the storm to strike in southern North Carolina between the North Carolina/South Carolina border and Morehead City, NC. At the current time, the Wilmington to Jacksonville, NC area seems to be the target. This path could change slightly over the next several days but at this time is not expected to go any farther south than Myrtle Beach, SC nor farther north than Nags Head, NC. Remember, the heaviest precipitation and most severe weather will be near and just to the north of the eye and could extend for several hundred miles. This storm has the potential to deliver up to 3-4 feet of rain in some locations on the North Carolina coast and the situation could resemble what Harvey did to Houston last year. Once the storm moves inland Sunday or early next week it could track as far south as into South Carolina then into Georgia or take a track more westerly through North Carolina. This is a very dangerous storm. Anyone in the coastal impact areas near the South Carolina, North Carolina or southern Virginia/Maryland coastal areas should heed all warnings immediately and prepare to evacuate or move to higher ground. I REPEAT...THIS IS A DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING STORM!! PREPARE AND ACT NOW IF YOU LIVE IN ANY OF THE AREAS I MENTIONED, especially if you live on or within 50 miles of any of these coastal areas! Please keep in contact with your local authorities, emergency organizations, and heed any weather warnings related to this hurricane.
Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 11, 2018 15:36:13 GMT -5
Thanka again for the update. Keep up the good work.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 11, 2018 15:50:38 GMT -5
Thanka again for the update. Keep up the good work. The storm has some unusual behavior. The European model has it making landfall in southern NC or staying just barely off the coast on Friday and Saturday and then drifting off the coast slowly south and then making landfall, maybe for the second time, probably as a tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane in southern SC before moving inland over SC and GA as t slowly dissipates. I'm not buying this complete scenario but the making landfall and meandering just off the coast for several days is certainly a possibility/probability that I had previously mentioned.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 11, 2018 17:39:25 GMT -5
I noticed on a local map they had now extended the most southern zone as far down as Athens Ga with an inland track then curving up through NE Georgia.
That's just the outer-most area though so I imagine that means just some good rain and moderate winds.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 11, 2018 21:00:58 GMT -5
I noticed on a local map they had now extended the most southern zone as far down as Athens Ga with an inland track then curving up through NE Georgia. That's just the outer-most area though so I imagine that means just some good rain and moderate winds. Absolutely a possibility when you look at the European model. Even a few other models have if falling apart and moving through SC and GA. As it moves west the interaction with the mountains will decrease the strength rapidly but 2-6" or more of rain in the northern GA is not out of the question in this scenario, the heaviest amounts falling to the east of the metro area with the orographic lift in higher terrain. Also, the 18Z GFS run is aligning with the Euro model in the scenario I mentioned in the last post although that model brings it inland to central SC and then turns north into western NC. In that scenario northern GA is mostly spared the heavy rainfall (only about .25"-2"). My gut feeling at this time is that about 1" of rain will fall in north central GA between Saturday and Monday although a slight shift to the north earlier would result in less than 1" or possibly even less than .5" total on those days. A shift to the west would likely result in 1-3" for northern central GA. In addition, the timing of landfall, if in fact it does make landfall in NC, keeps moving back slightly with each model run and also impacts regions farther to the south into southern SC. The North American Model (NAM), a regional model, has the storm meandering off the coast from late Thursday evening until finally making landfall in southern NC early Saturday morning. Dry air aloft and an expected increase in wind shear on Thursday in addition to moving slowly over shallower waters providing less latent heat energy will probably result in a CAT 3 hurricane or minimal CAT 4 (if you can call a CAT 4 minimal anything). Other scenarios have the storm making landfall early Friday morning between Myrtle Beach, SC and Nags Head NC. At the present time pending new data input from reconnaissance missions and other data gathering sources, I think a good compromise weighing model reliability and other factors would have the storm just off the coast or slightly inland in southern NC around Wilmington, NC on Friday morning and then meandering slowly just off the coast and drifting slowly south for at least 12-24 hours before continuing west through northern SC then turning north through western NC, eastern TN, eastern KY then moving into Indiana/Ohio. I'm still somewhat apprehensive of a southern SC landfall and more westerly track afterwards but it's hard to discredit two major dynamical models, although not coupled with ocean models, that are displaying congruent but not identical output, especially when the updated physics of the GFS V3 model drives the hurricane farther south like the Euro model also. I do therefore consider that southerly movement and drifting into my prognosis. Most other models, including coupled ocean models like the GDFL and HWRF and others featured in the spaghetti plot, are consistent with the southern NC landfall scenarios early Friday morning and the westerly/northwesterly track afterwards. That's the way I see it currently. Still much can change from now until landfall and after it makes landfall. Now that I've said all of that any new data input into future model runs could change that scenario somewhat or even a lot, especially after the initial landfall or the close to landfall situation in southern NC Friday morning. Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 12, 2018 9:36:37 GMT -5
Florence Update Wednesday Sep 12 2108 10:30 AM EDT Just a quick update. Most models are now sinking the path to the south and support stalling within 50 miles of the coast or just inland for up to several days. The flow aloft around the high pressure area driving the storm to the west will break down leaving Florence with no steering current. This is becoming more of a reality than a possibility. This could bring catastrophic rains and flooding from coastal southern NC (24-36"+) into southern coastal SC (12-15"). Areas in coastal SC and coastal GA from Brunswick north are now possibly in play for heavy rains and flooding if Florence were to drift far enough to the south and come ashore between Savannah and Charleston, SC. Still a lot to be determined.
Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 12, 2018 12:22:13 GMT -5
Yeah... now we're getting closer to my backyard.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 12, 2018 15:07:58 GMT -5
Yeah... now we're getting closer to my backyard. Yep...these animals have a mind of their own sometimes. Just can't be too sure 4 or 5 days in advance.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 12, 2018 15:22:48 GMT -5
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 13, 2018 10:37:34 GMT -5
Florence Update Thursday Sep 13 2018 11:10 AM EDT
Florence is expected to slow and veer more to the west as she nears the coast. Several factors will reduce the expected intensity from yesterday and will take it's toll on Florence and reduce it's intensity by a full category.
1. Slower movement 2. Shallow water providing less energy 3. Land friction as it nears the coast 4. Increased wind shear
Although Florence is moving into atmospheric conditions that are favorable for intensification these will be mitigated greatly by the above mentioned factors causing a net loss of strength as Florence nears landfall. The eye wall has never fully developed after the ERC yesterday and there are low clouds in the eye and the overall hurricane is less symmetrical and as a result the maximum winds are less and the energy is more spread out. This will definitely reduce the wind damage that would have been caused by a CAT 3 or CAT 4 hurricane. Florence is expected to make landfall Friday morning around 5 AM plus or minus 6 hours. This could change slightly, possibly later Friday, depending on the accuracy of the forecasted slower movement. Maximum sustained winds at impact are expected to be 90-110 MPH. That's a high CAT 1 to a high CAT 2. Winds will likely remain a CAT 2 through most of Friday then a CAT 1 before being downgraded to a tropical storm on Saturday. If it should stall just off the coast it could remain a CAT 2 until Saturday and them remain a low CAT 1 for a day or two before reaching tropical storm status but that's much less likely. The path I delineated in my previous update is still pretty much on target with all the newest model runs except it may veer a little more east as it travels northward early next week. This is still a very dangerous storm that will cause significant wind damage, heavy rainfall, torrential flooding, and dangerous storm surges. Expect rainfall amounts from 15-30"+ east of I95 from the central SC to central NC coast and 5-15" in SC, especially central and eastern SC and central and southern NC. Other areas in SC and NC can expect .5-5", more where orographic lift enhances precipitation. Inland areas such as eastern and central GA, eastern TN, eastern KY, southern VA, WV and into the lower mid Atlantic states next week can also expect .5-5", more where orographic lift enhances the precipitation. Please heed any and all weather warnings, flood warnings, and hurricane warnings and keep in contact with local emergency authorities if you live in any of these areas, especially in the Carolinas, as devastating winds, torrential rainfall, high storm surges, and catastrophic flooding are imminent!
-PA
Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 13, 2018 20:16:06 GMT -5
Just a quick question...
So when this was a higher category storm and the predictions were a bit more dire, weren't things like shallow water providing less energy and land friction expected and wouldn't that have led to predictions that the storm would weaken as it has?
Genuine curiosity as I have always been curious about these things. When I was at university, one of my professors in physical geography tried to steer my education in that direction that included meteorology.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 13, 2018 22:10:32 GMT -5
Just a quick question... So when this was a higher category storm and the predictions were a bit more dire, weren't things like shallow water providing less energy and land friction expected and wouldn't that have led to predictions that the storm would weaken as it has? Genuine curiosity as I have always been curious about these things. When I was at university, one of my professors in physical geography tried to steer my education in that direction that included meteorology. Yes they were and are in every instance. I mentioned them as factors because they were expected to decrease intensity somewhat over time but aided the lack of intensification after the uncompleted ERC also. Perhaps I should have emphasized the ERC more. In this case the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) never completed. The eastern portion never filled in and the lack of a complete eyewall destroyed the structure of the hurricane needed for intensification. Florence later developed what is know as concentric eyewalls (an inner stronger wall and and outer weaker wall), a condition that is unfavorable for intensification when intensification was expected to increase under favorable conditions. That condition is probably a big reason for the decrease in intensity and is not unusual but is nearly impossible to forecast. If I remember correctly Hurricane Matthew had a similar occurrence. Like I said, sometimes hurricanes are just a different animal. In addition, the whole system got much larger area wise after the uncompleted ERC, a normal occurrence with an ERC, and the energy became more widespread out over a larger area. This is normally overcome by a stronger core (i.e. one eyewall with stronger winds) after ERC completion and intensification if conditions are favorable, which they were, only in this case the structure of the eye was not conducive to intensification. Add in the slower movement over shallower water providing less latent heat due to upwelling colder water and the other usual factors affecting intensification and you get a significant drop in strength. Sorry for the long length of the reply. Hope this helps! Note: I should also add that although I have a general and specialized education on tropical systems, including tropical cyclones and their causes and effects. My experience with tropical systems is mostly theoretical and lab related exercises on past hurricanes and their movement, structure, development and characteristics. I do not have an in depth working knowledge and extensive application of tropical meteorology including forecasting tropical cyclones nor do I claim to be an expert on tropical and subtropical systems, cold core/warm core systems nor developing systems in either a barotropic or baroclinic atmosphere. On the contrary, my expertise lies more with research in desert and cold weather/arctic atmospheric profiling, middle and upper atmospheric research, and microscale, mesoscale, and synoptic scale operational and weather environmental forecasting. -PA
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 13, 2018 22:37:26 GMT -5
Oh it helps.
My interest is not only in understanding how these predictions work of which I have some rudimentary knowledge, but also in the reasons these things can be so unpredictable... which is a level of study I never reached.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 14, 2018 22:40:54 GMT -5
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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 14, 2018 23:38:56 GMT -5
Jim Cantore gettin' jiggy wid it.
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