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Post by jahgentle on Jun 18, 2018 15:34:17 GMT -5
It's all true and he is not someone you want to get on the bad side of man, these meteorologist will F*** you up.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Jun 18, 2018 15:47:10 GMT -5
It's all true and he is not someone you want to get on the bad side of man, these meteorologist will F*** you up. There's a whole cult of them that get together and go tear up biker bars and whip everybody's ass.
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Post by PABraveFan on Jul 26, 2018 13:07:34 GMT -5
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 7, 2018 15:01:09 GMT -5
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 4, 2018 13:56:43 GMT -5
Captain's Log 4 Sep 2018 & More on Winter 2018-2019
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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 4, 2018 15:06:28 GMT -5
Do you think they’ve been messing with weather forces for awhile now? Experimenting? To the point that it has some big effects?
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 5, 2018 21:04:57 GMT -5
Do you think they’ve been messing with weather forces for awhile now? Experimenting? To the point that it has some big effects? I have been trying to figure out a way to comment on your post so here goes... I can say that weather and climate modification are a part of DOD's military operations and defense strategy and have been for many years. Environmental Modification (ENMOD) techniques continue to be evaluated through use of various traditional and nontraditional weather modification strategies, including upper atmospheric studies (i.e. aeronomy and "space weather") involving ionification of the atmosphere. "Weather warfare" involving things like cloud seeding, generating fog, delaying or forcing precipitation, interrupting communications, natural, agricultural, and economic disruption, and the possible manipulation of weather patterns and more are just some of the areas that are in play currently or could be in the near future. There are also untapped weather modification methods being researched much the same way as new weapon systems are and the consequences are potentially catastrophic for our enemies. HAARP was very real and was a vital part of the Strategic Defense Initiative (i.e. Star Wars) that began under the Reagan administration. The Air Force calls it "Owning the Weather". Although the HAARP project has been officially terminated by the Air Force, the scientific initiative lives on as it was transferred to the University of Alaska Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks in 2015. HAARP has the potential to create not only weather chaos but atmospheric chaos. In my opinion, limited micro-scale and mesoscale disruption is currently possible. The ability to modify climate and weather is a reality and a significant and powerful defense strategy that in its full capacity may be used in many ways as weapons of war with no deployment of troops or equipment. The exact extent of these modification techniques are still being researched and developed. I suspect great advancements in this area are being developed far beyond what most of us could imagine. Let me be perfectly clear. In my opinion, weather and climate modification and weather warfare are real, powerful, and potentially deadly weapons which eventually, if they are ever developed to their maximum potential, may be able to be used on a global basis on anyone without their knowledge. The real question is... should they?
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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 5, 2018 21:22:31 GMT -5
Do you think they’ve been messing with weather forces for awhile now? Experimenting? To the point that it has some big effects? I have been trying to figure out a way to comment on your post so here goes... I can say that weather and climate modification are a part of DOD's military operations and defense strategy and have been for many years. Environmental Modification (ENMOD) techniques continue to be evaluated through use of various traditional and nontraditional weather modification strategies, including upper atmospheric studies (i.e. aeronomy and "space weather") involving ionification of the atmosphere. "Weather warfare" involving things like cloud seeding, generating fog, delaying or forcing precipitation, interrupting communications, natural, agricultural, and economic disruption, and the possible manipulation of weather patterns and more are just some of the areas that are in play currently or could be in the near future. There are also untapped weather modification methods being researched much the same way as new weapon systems are and the consequences are potentially catastrophic for our enemies. HAARP was very real and was a vital part of the Strategic Defense Initiative (i.e. Star Wars) that began under the Reagan administration. The Air Force calls it "Owning the Weather". Although the HAARP project has been officially terminated by the Air Force, the scientific initiative lives on as it was transferred to the University of Alaska Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks in 2015. HAARP has the potential to create not only weather chaos but atmospheric chaos. In my opinion, limited micro-scale and mesoscale disruption is currently possible. The ability to modify climate and weather is a reality and a significant and powerful defense strategy that in its full capacity may be used in many ways as weapons of war with no deployment of troops or equipment. The exact extent of these modification techniques are still being researched and developed. I suspect great advancements in this area are being developed far beyond what most of us could imagine. Let me be perfectly clear. In my opinion, weather and climate modification and weather warfare are real, powerful, and potentially deadly weapons which eventually, if they are ever developed to their maximum potential, may be able to be used on a global basis on anyone without their knowledge. The real question is... should they? Thanks for the informative response. That's pretty much what I suspected, without ever really delving into all of this in any kind of detail on my own.
I hope you don't have to kill me now.
As far as whether we should or shouldn't tinker with the weather, my instinct says no, but I also believe that mankind will reach a point where we are doing a LOT of things scientifically that we shouldn't. I just hope I'm outta here before it gets too crazy.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 7, 2018 15:48:47 GMT -5
Florence Update... Please be aware if you live anywhere from coastal GA to New England. It's looking more likely that Florence will intensify and make some sort of impact on the US East Coast by Thursday 9/13. At the current time, Florence could move inland bring heavy rains to South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia or turn north and act like a nor'easter. If you live in ANY eastern coastal areas or even several hundred miles inland from GA to southern New England I would advise watching Florence closely. Much can change between now and Wednesday but reduced shear, warm ocean waters, and merging with a disturbance south of Bermuda indicate significant intensification. Several caveats are the dry atmosphere in the mid and upper levels that could delay intensification and the exact extent of high pressure ridging in the Atlantic to the north. Climatology and historical analogs often push these storms to the N/NE but the strength of the current high pressure ridge could force the storm farther to the south and west before it turns north. Here are a few projections for 2 PM Thursday morning 9/13: www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018090712&fh=150&r=conus&dpdt=weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa-east/wind-925mb/20180913-1800z.html-PA Here is a summary from weathertrends360... weathertrends360 7 hrs · If you live along the East Coast from South Carolina to Long Island you really need to monitor Florence! It went from a major hurricane to a tropical storm due to wind shear but it's coming out of that shear now and very likely to again become a major hurricane this weekend passing to the south of Bermuda. The track has shifted more south and west which makes an East Coast threat more likely. With a huge blocking high pressure to the North there is no escape for Florence so the risk for a land fall along the East Coast is dramatically increasing for late next week (Thursday 13th). The Euro model (posted in comments below) is showing a major hurricane hitting South Carolina Thursday. The US GFS 00Z says it's a near miss off the New Jersey coast but the 6Z run this morning shows a devastating track through the Chesapeake Bay Thursday next week. With water temps in the 80s off the East Coast (well above average) Florence will maintain strength as it nears the East Coast so this is looking more and more likely to be a significant event. It's still 6 days away and track error can be 300 miles this far out but the overall blocking pattern to the north is very worrisome. Very large waves a certainty for most of the East Coast with 10-15+ foot waves without a landfall, more like 30 (right of landfall) if we do get a land fall! Behind that the parade of storms coming off Africa is also impressive with at least 5 potential systems so the peak of the hurricane season looks to be extremely active as we go through September into early October.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 7, 2018 16:55:24 GMT -5
so there is high confidence most of this Florence action is going to take place north of Jacksonville Florida?
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 7, 2018 18:08:46 GMT -5
so there is high confidence most of this Florence action is going to take place north of Jacksonville Florida? Yes...as it stands right now. You may be affected by some rain bands and high surf though. Things could change so be aware.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 8, 2018 21:10:07 GMT -5
Well I won't because I am not down there during this time of the year, but I had some minor concern for the condo in St. Augustine.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 10, 2018 14:45:59 GMT -5
Latest update on Florence weathertrends360 1:30pm EDT Monday Captain's Log & video update on Major Hurricane Florence. North Carolina area from Wilmington to Morehead City most likely to take a direct hit Thursday into predawn Friday with a Cat 4 per NHC (sustained 150 mph gusting to 184 mph)! Be safe folks and remember a storm surge of 10-15 feet (right of the eye) is simply the ocean rising up, a wall of water...on top of that are 20-30 foot waves so the net is 30-40 foot seas to the right of landfall - most coastal structures can't withstand that. This appears to be on par with Hugo - see video for details. www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY1yvYMbJB4&t=36s
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 10, 2018 15:35:58 GMT -5
I posted this on the now defunct MLB site so I'll post again as Florence approaches. Some information on hurricanes. Hurricanes are very difficult to monitor and track with complete accuracy. Even with the equipment we have today some assumptions, parameterizations, and a thorough analysis of many factors are still needed to display the information gained from reconnaissance missions in a useful way. There are several different ways to measure wind speeds in a hurricane. Originally and still today for tropical depressions and storms, data is collected by aircraft at the 700 MB level (~10,000 feet) and surface wind speeds are calculated to determine a surface wind speed from various ratios derived from past empirical data. This is surely not an exact method but does provide an "in the ballpark" estimate of surface wind speeds especially as storms (cyclones) are developing and strengthening. Normally an estimation of 80-90% of the 700 MB wind speed is used. As tropical storms intensify into hurricanes GPS dropsondes and WP3D Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) are used. While dropsondes are very accurate (within several MPH) they are expensive and only about 15-20 are used during any Hurricane Hunters mission leaving many unobserved areas to be filled in by expert severe weather analysis teams. SFMR uses certain frequencies to measure microwave radiation from the ocean surface. Using some assumptions about the atmosphere they gather what is called an ocean surface brightness temperature and then a calculation of wind speeds can be obtained from a linear assumption of wind speed and corresponding brightness. In high wind scenarios these methods don't always give the same results although they are usually fairly similar. Severe weather experts must determine, for that particular storm, what represents the most accurate measurement based on a number of parameters and most importantly the internal dynamics of the storm that are constantly changing. There are parametric and dynamical approaches to forecast a wind distribution field in hurricanes. There are the data intensive dynamical models the National Hurricane Center prefers and several parametric models (each has their benefits depending on the storm) that can quickly forecast a wind distribution field almost as well as the dynamical approach and much more quickly. The following applies in every instance as it pertains to winds in a hurricane (Northern Hemisphere): 1. The strongest winds in most areas of a hurricane are normally found at about 300-500 meters ABOVE the surface unaffected by surface friction. 2. Winds officially reported as sustained winds are obtained by several methods, a 10 minute average or one, sometime two, minute average and are measured at ~33 feet (10.1 meters) ABOVE the ground in an unobstructed location. 3. The strongest winds in a hurricane are found in the right side, especially the right forward quadrant (assuming you are in the northern hemisphere). 4. The winds in the right side are not only stronger but extend much farther out as does the entire field of tropical storm winds (winds >39 MPH). 5. The strongest winds in the left quadrant are about 20% and possibly 25% weaker than the right side. 6. The winds in the left side diminish much quicker as you move away from the eye wall. 7. The strongest winds normally occur about 15 miles (can occur between 6 and 30 miles) from the center of the eye. 8. Winds can decrease up to 30% in just 15 miles (if the max winds are 6 miles from the center of the eye) and by more than 40% just 30 miles from the center of the eye, especially as it applies to the left side where winds diminish more quickly with distance. 9. Winds can drop by 50% or more just 60 miles from the center of the eye and at 60-70 miles from the center can be just 40-50% of the maximum winds for that quadrants eye wall, especially as it applies to the left side where winds diminish more quickly with distance. 10. Other meteorological parameters, wave height and direction, coastal geographical features etc. can affect wind speeds dramatically, especially as a storm moves over land (friction), loses strength due to wind shear, dry air, cooler water etc. and a number of other factors and begins or continues to deteriorate. Finally, while estimates can be made it is impossible to determine the dynamics and resulting effects in every area covered by the hurricane. Each hurricane is unique unto itself and its properties are affected by forces internally and externally. Wind speeds are ever changing with the internal dynamics and external forces and the sampling of data covers very small portions of the hurricane leaving experts to “fill in the blanks”. As stated previously there are also many algorithms used based not only on physical data but also on assumptions and parameterizations. NOAA (National Hurricane Center) will almost always use a dynamical approach when tracking and forecasting hurricanes through use of dynamical atmospheric and ocean models. These models can be used independently (i.e. GFS, ECMWF) or coupled/linked with an ocean model (i.e. GFDL, GFDN, HWRF) to better represent ocean/atmospheric interaction.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 10, 2018 19:56:23 GMT -5
Thabks for the info, PA
Good work as always
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