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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 27, 2018 20:50:16 GMT -5
Sherman speculates that the yanks would be willing to trade Clint Frazier for Camargo straight up. I like that. I like Camargo but I fear we are seeing his peak. The yanks would have to add more to the deal for it to line up, but I like it as a starting point. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2018 20:55:37 GMT -5
I like that. I like Camargo but I fear we are seeing his peak. Why do people say this about Camargo? Is it because he wasn't a highly touted prospect? He's a young guy and has been about as consistent as a player can be. I don't understand why so many people say this about him. He had the 53rd highest WAR in all of baseball last year.
What would Braves fans say about other 24 year old players who played at that level?
Who were remarkably consistent at the plate, good glove and a top notch arm?
He has a really basic and fundamentally sound swing to boot. I don't see it going away.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2018 20:57:24 GMT -5
I like that. I like Camargo but I fear we are seeing his peak. The yanks would have to add more to the deal for it to line up, but I like it as a starting point. Who is going to play 3B for us if Riley doesn't pan out?
Why would the Yankees want Camargo? Apparently they aren't afraid he has peaked out I guess.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 27, 2018 21:53:38 GMT -5
The yanks would have to add more to the deal for it to line up, but I like it as a starting point. Who is going to play 3B for us if Riley doesn't pan out?
Why would the Yankees want Camargo? Apparently they aren't afraid he has peaked out I guess.
Who’s gonna play 3rd if Camargo is a one hit wonder and Riley doesn’t pan out? We can go all night with this. Also, Didi is out with TJ surgery. Also, it’s a rumor. Also, let’s not act like Camargo is untouchable. |
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 27, 2018 21:53:44 GMT -5
I like that. I like Camargo but I fear we are seeing his peak. Why do people say this about Camargo? Is it because he wasn't a highly touted prospect? He's a young guy and has been about as consistent as a player can be. I don't understand why so many people say this about him. I can't speak for anyone else other than myself. It is kind of a gut feeling for me. Also one part of it is that Camargo was never seen as much of a prospect. His debut was mediocre. While 2018 was good, I feel it was perhaps too good. I feel like that may well have been Camargo at his best. Camargo walked well in 2018 at 9.7%. That was more than double his percentage from 2017. I believe Camargo could be a productive utility player, likely better than Culberson. Steamer and Depth Charts over on Fangraphs don't like Camargo next season. They both peg him as a slightly below league average bat with a wRC+ of 96. One of them even has Camargo as being negative on defense (take that for what it is worth). I searched rather briefly and didn't find an article detailing what might be said about Camargo in depth. There are of course the comments from others that you may have read.
I'm personally okay with the Braves keeping Camargo. However, if the Braves can sell another team with an open slot at 3B they should if that team will buy Camargo at close to the rate stats he put up. People on the Braves Reddit say he was the Braves third best position player. I'll go with that. Three players were better. Albies wasn't much better though and had significantly more opportunities. So if the Braves can trade Camargo at close to his 2018 production, I'm very ready for that to happen. Although I'm more inclined to bet on Camargo than I am Culberson, I would still trade away Camargo. A utility player doesn't have to be that good (and again, don't just trade Camargo, only if it makes sense). Culberson could surprise again in this instance.
I'm not going to play the what if games on what happens if Donaldson leaves after a year and Riley doesn't produce. You have to trust that Riley would produce or that the Braves would recognize that soon enough and make a change. I believe the Donaldson signing was a good one despite the risk. He represents a major upgrade over Camargo if you trust Steamer. We'll just have to accept however the Braves choose to utilize Camargo moving forwards.
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peteorr
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Post by peteorr on Nov 27, 2018 22:06:06 GMT -5
Who is going to play 3B for us if Riley doesn't pan out?
Why would the Yankees want Camargo? Apparently they aren't afraid he has peaked out I guess.
Who’s gonna play 3rd if Camargo is a one hit wonder and Riley doesn’t pan out? We can go all night with this. Also, Didi is out with TJ surgery. I personally need to stop saying what if so often. I'm not saying that is what Uckery is necessarily doing. A healthy amount of skepticism/concern is welcome.
That said, we can find the negative in anything. We signed Mike Trout. Well that was risky. Why'd we give him $40M a season? Why would we be so stupid as to invest that amount of money in any one player?
We can analyze this stuff as we please. We won't be right all the time. Also we can't change the moves that will be made. At some point we have to go with the flow and stop worrying as much.
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 27, 2018 22:39:49 GMT -5
Who’s gonna play 3rd if Camargo is a one hit wonder and Riley doesn’t pan out? We can go all night with this. Also, Didi is out with TJ surgery. I personally need to stop saying what if so often. I'm not saying that is what Uckery is necessarily doing. A healthy amount of skepticism/concern is welcome.
That said, we can find the negative in anything. We signed Mike Trout. Well that was risky. Why'd we give him $40M a season? Why would we be so stupid as to invest that amount of money in any one player?
We can analyze this stuff as we please. We won't be right all the time. Also we can't change the moves that will be made. At some point we have to go with the flow and stop worrying as much.
I agree. In fact I said exactly that yesterday, about the JD signing. Uck really likes Camargo, and there’s a lot to like, but if the Braves can get solid value from a guy, they believe is at peak value, you gotta entertain the idea. I think the JD deal greatly improved the bench, and that’s a great thing. Look at the dodgers and Red Sox, both had great benches. You need that in the playoffs. So, it’s all good if they keep Camargo, but if, for example, the Braves have the inside track on Mitch Haniger, and the deal hinges on the Braves parting with Camargo, then it’s bye bye Camargo. And I’m not trying to compare Frazier to Haniger, there is no comparison. I’m just saying that if that if a team values Camargo as a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player, that’s immense surplus value, and you can get a lot for that. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 27, 2018 23:01:07 GMT -5
I personally need to stop saying what if so often. I'm not saying that is what Uckery is necessarily doing. A healthy amount of skepticism/concern is welcome.
That said, we can find the negative in anything. We signed Mike Trout. Well that was risky. Why'd we give him $40M a season? Why would we be so stupid as to invest that amount of money in any one player?
We can analyze this stuff as we please. We won't be right all the time. Also we can't change the moves that will be made. At some point we have to go with the flow and stop worrying as much.
I agree. In fact I said exactly that yesterday, about the JD signing. Uck really likes Camargo, and there’s a lot to like, but if the Braves can get solid value from a guy, they believe is at peak value, you gotta entertain the idea. I think the JD deal greatly improved the bench, and that’s a great thing. Look at the dodgers and Red Sox, both had great benches. You need that in the playoffs. So, it’s all good if they keep Camargo, but if, for example, the Braves have the inside track on Mitch Haniger, and the deal hinges on the Braves parting with Camargo, then it’s bye bye Camargo. And I’m not trying to compare Frazier to Haniger, there is no comparison. I’m just saying that if that if a team values Camargo as a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player, that’s immense surplus value, and you can get a lot for that. I do like him a lot because I value consistency and I value a basic simple repeatable swing--his defense isn't going to slump, and his offense almost never has because he keeps it so simple and fundamentally sound. It makes perfect sense to me that a guy who is consistent is going to help you win more than a guy who is very streaky, and that's an intangible that doesn't show up in stats. That doesn't mean I think he's going to be an All Star caliber player, he's just a really solid piece of the puzzle. He's already not a one hit wonder because he's had two very solid seasons. I'm not going to say we should expect him to get even better, but there's also no reason to think that he won't actually improve. The bottom line is as things stand right now it's either Camargo or Riley at 3B starting in 2020, and I actually don't like eliminating either one of them as options. Sure we could get a good piece for Camargo, but we have that in him already and he's young. Why possibly create a hole where we don't have one? Our team has other needs, we should address those without creating the possibility of a new hole existing. As things stand right now, there's not such strong depth for us at 3B starting in 2020 that we can get rid of any of it right now. |
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Post by peteorr on Nov 27, 2018 23:10:33 GMT -5
I personally need to stop saying what if so often. I'm not saying that is what Uckery is necessarily doing. A healthy amount of skepticism/concern is welcome.
That said, we can find the negative in anything. We signed Mike Trout. Well that was risky. Why'd we give him $40M a season? Why would we be so stupid as to invest that amount of money in any one player?
We can analyze this stuff as we please. We won't be right all the time. Also we can't change the moves that will be made. At some point we have to go with the flow and stop worrying as much.
I agree. In fact I said exactly that yesterday, about the JD signing. Uck really likes Camargo, and there’s a lot to like, but if the Braves can get solid value from a guy, they believe is at peak value, you gotta entertain the idea. I think the JD deal greatly improved the bench, and that’s a great thing. Look at the dodgers and Red Sox, both had great benches. You need that in the playoffs. So, it’s all good if they keep Camargo, but if, for example, the Braves have the inside track on Mitch Haniger, and the deal hinges on the Braves parting with Camargo, then it’s bye bye Camargo. And I’m not trying to compare Frazier to Haniger, there is no comparison. I’m just saying that if that if a team values Camargo as a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player, that’s immense surplus value, and you can get a lot for that. I agree with everything you said here. I would like it if the Braves could trade Inciarte + Camargo for Haniger. I have no idea how realistic that trade or one similar would be. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 27, 2018 23:41:07 GMT -5
I agree. In fact I said exactly that yesterday, about the JD signing. Uck really likes Camargo, and there’s a lot to like, but if the Braves can get solid value from a guy, they believe is at peak value, you gotta entertain the idea. I think the JD deal greatly improved the bench, and that’s a great thing. Look at the dodgers and Red Sox, both had great benches. You need that in the playoffs. So, it’s all good if they keep Camargo, but if, for example, the Braves have the inside track on Mitch Haniger, and the deal hinges on the Braves parting with Camargo, then it’s bye bye Camargo. And I’m not trying to compare Frazier to Haniger, there is no comparison. I’m just saying that if that if a team values Camargo as a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player, that’s immense surplus value, and you can get a lot for that. I do like him a lot because I value consistency and I value a basic simple repeatable swing--his defense isn't going to slump, and his offense almost never has because he keeps it so simple and fundamentally sound. It makes perfect sense to me that a guy who is consistent is going to help you win more than a guy who is very streaky, and that's an intangible that doesn't show up in stats. That doesn't mean I think he's going to be an All Star caliber player, he's just a really solid piece of the puzzle. He's already not a one hit wonder because he's had two very solid seasons. I'm not going to say we should expect him to get even better, but there's also no reason to think that he won't actually improve. The bottom line is as things stand right now it's either Camargo or Riley at 3B starting in 2020, and I actually don't like eliminating either one of them as options. Sure we could get a good piece for Camargo, but we have that in him already and he's young. Why possibly create a hole where we don't have one? Our team has other needs, we should address those without creating the possibility of a new hole existing. As things stand right now, there's not such strong depth for us at 3B starting in 2020 that we can get rid of any of it right now. I get where you’re coming from. The one thing I’ll add, though, is that if Camargo is as consistent as you think he is, the Braves wouldn’t get a piece for him, they’d get pieces. I haven’t done the math, but if he’s a 3 WAR player and as much as he’s under team control, we’re talking huge surplus value. |
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 27, 2018 23:51:22 GMT -5
I agree. In fact I said exactly that yesterday, about the JD signing. Uck really likes Camargo, and there’s a lot to like, but if the Braves can get solid value from a guy, they believe is at peak value, you gotta entertain the idea. I think the JD deal greatly improved the bench, and that’s a great thing. Look at the dodgers and Red Sox, both had great benches. You need that in the playoffs. So, it’s all good if they keep Camargo, but if, for example, the Braves have the inside track on Mitch Haniger, and the deal hinges on the Braves parting with Camargo, then it’s bye bye Camargo. And I’m not trying to compare Frazier to Haniger, there is no comparison. I’m just saying that if that if a team values Camargo as a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player, that’s immense surplus value, and you can get a lot for that. I agree with everything you said here. I would like it if the Braves could trade Inciarte + Camargo for Haniger. I have no idea how realistic that trade or one similar would be. I’d have to do the math, but on first look, the M’s would win that trade. Camargo and Inciarte have a huge amount of surplus value. |
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 28, 2018 0:21:02 GMT -5
I do like him a lot because I value consistency and I value a basic simple repeatable swing--his defense isn't going to slump, and his offense almost never has because he keeps it so simple and fundamentally sound. It makes perfect sense to me that a guy who is consistent is going to help you win more than a guy who is very streaky, and that's an intangible that doesn't show up in stats. That doesn't mean I think he's going to be an All Star caliber player, he's just a really solid piece of the puzzle. He's already not a one hit wonder because he's had two very solid seasons. I'm not going to say we should expect him to get even better, but there's also no reason to think that he won't actually improve. The bottom line is as things stand right now it's either Camargo or Riley at 3B starting in 2020, and I actually don't like eliminating either one of them as options. Sure we could get a good piece for Camargo, but we have that in him already and he's young. Why possibly create a hole where we don't have one? Our team has other needs, we should address those without creating the possibility of a new hole existing. As things stand right now, there's not such strong depth for us at 3B starting in 2020 that we can get rid of any of it right now. I get where you’re coming from. The one thing I’ll add, though, is that if Camargo is as consistent as you think he is, the Braves wouldn’t get a piece for him, they’d get pieces. I haven’t done the math, but if he’s a 3 WAR player and as much as he’s under team control, we’re talking huge surplus value. Camargo's month by month OPS (I am omitting April and May of 2017 because he had a total of 11AB's in those two months):
June 2017 .801 July 2017 .815 Aug 2017 .785 Sept 2017 .791
April 2018 1.074 (with only 17 AB) May 2018 .733 June 2018 .787 July 2018 .819 Aug 2018 .869 Sept 2018 .747
That's pretty consistently good, I'd like to see some other players who have stayed in that range. Especially in their first two years in the big leagues, at a young age.
Just for comparison's sake, here's Dansby's:
Aug 2016 .645 Sept 2016 .878
April 2017 .433 May 2017 .677 June 2017 .774
July 2017 .395
Aug 2017 .848
Sept 2017 .593
April 2018 .752 May 2018 .630 June 2018 .722 July 2018 .632 Aug 2018 .716
Sept 2018 .653
To me there's obviously big chunks of time there, often, where he has been a liability offensively, we know that from the eye test. To me that consistency, knowing a guy is going to be steady and reliable means a lot.
According to Fangraphs Johan was a 3.3 WAR player this year. Baseball reference has him at 3.7. Wake up and smell the coffee and jump on that bandwagon!
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Post by TheCoronaManCometh on Nov 28, 2018 0:40:07 GMT -5
I get where you’re coming from. The one thing I’ll add, though, is that if Camargo is as consistent as you think he is, the Braves wouldn’t get a piece for him, they’d get pieces. I haven’t done the math, but if he’s a 3 WAR player and as much as he’s under team control, we’re talking huge surplus value. Camargo's month by month OPS (I am omitting April and May of 2017 because he had a total of 11AB's in those two months):
June 2017 .801 July 2017 .815 Aug 2017 .785 Sept 2017 .791
April 2018 1.074 (with only 17 AB) May 2018 .733 June 2018 .787 July 2018 .819 Aug 2018 .869 Sept 2018 .747
That's pretty consistently good, I'd like to see some other players who have stayed in that range. Especially in their first two years in the big leagues, at a young age.
Just for comparison's sake, here's Dansby's:
Aug 2016 .645 Sept 2016 .878
April 2017 .433 May 2017 .677 June 2017 .774
July 2017 .395
Aug 2017 .848
Sept 2017 .593
April 2018 .752 May 2018 .630 June 2018 .722 July 2018 .632 Aug 2018 .716
Sept 2018 .653
To me there's obviously big chunks of time there, often, where he has been a liability offensively, we know that from the eye test. To me that consistency, knowing a guy is going to be steady and reliable means a lot.
According to Fangraphs Johan was a 3.3 WAR player this year. Baseball reference has him at 3.7. Wake up and smell the coffee and jump on that bandwagon!
I don't know why you're selling me on things I already know. What I'm saying is that if Camargo is a 3.0 WAR player, and he hasn't even hit Arb yet, then the Braves have 15 WAR over the time the Braves have team control. The fact that he'll now be a super-utility player probably drops his WAR, cause his defensive value will take a hit, particularly when he plays in the OF, but even if you put him at 2.5 WAR, that's 12.5 WAR, over 5 years. That's $112 million in surplus value, without subtracting his salary, which is unknown because he hasn't hit Arb yet, but the fact that he'll be super-utility means that he probably won't get a ton of money over that period of time. Even if you wanna throw out a crazy number, like $30 million over those 5 years, that's $82 million in surplus value. That's more value than JTR has right now for the Marlins. Just to give you an idea of what kind of prospect package we're talking about, not that I'm advocating for that because I'd rather see them get proven MLB talent, but that would take to long to do the math on, we're talking about a package of Austin Riley/Touki Toussaint. That's how much value he has, conservatively. If the Braves want depth, keep Camargo, but if they think they can still get depth, and want to make the team better, then they have to at least consider the possibility of trading Camargo. EDIT: And, again, that's only based on 2.5 WAR per year. If a team views him as a 15 WAR player, over 5 years, that's $135 million in surplus, not including salary. |
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akod
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Post by akod on Nov 28, 2018 1:02:03 GMT -5
The Astros and Cubs have put a lot of emphasis on versatility to keep a strong lineup nearly every day, I would like to do the same. Not worried about Camargo’s WAR this year.
Riley is a solid contingency for more than one injury. We also gain more control over him the longer he spends in the minors. He needs to focus on cutting down his k rate and try to take another step on defense.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Nov 28, 2018 1:05:24 GMT -5
I don’t know if I’d call it depth as much as insurance. Donaldson will be gone, and if we trade Camargo now we really need both Dansby and Riley to step up and be really good from 2020 on. . Even if we keep Camargo we don’t have depth yet because Riley is still an unknown. But moving Camargo makes that situation even more tenuous.
The reality that I will admit is that Camargo is still probably worth more to us than other teams because he snuck up on everybody. I doubt he would bring a big return. I wouldn’t expect one big enough for me to say it was a good idea, unless we got a good reliable 3B in a deal.
And that guy would have to be versatile, because there’s the chance Riley could be really good. If Riley ends up being really good, we have options for Camargo. For example, we couldn’t trade Camargo in a deal that brought us a nonversatile 3B like Moustakas.
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