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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 27, 2023 22:18:29 GMT -5
In reality every single pitch has a totally random possible outcome whether the manager has done something smart or stupid.
Another fact would be there are good reasons to put the odds in your favor as much as you can, because over a period of time certain expected outcomes are most likely to happen.
Because of that, in my opinion it’s quite simple to look at a pitcher who has 37 walks in 59 innings AND can’t hold runners on and say he should not be used in late innings. Mathematically in the long run that is a losing proposition.
Throw in the eye test and you see how often Yates is all over the place, he has no clue where any pitch is going. Murphy set up on the outer edge on that 0-2 pitch the Yates hit Dansby with, so he missed his target by three feet. Which is a regular thing for him.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 27, 2023 22:23:15 GMT -5
Yes it is. That's what gets me about him... It was literally a 3 foot miss.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 27, 2023 23:11:37 GMT -5
Yes it is. That's what gets me about him... It was literally a 3 foot miss. Which isn’t even unusual for Yates. I just don’t get why anyone would continue to do something in a manner where the odds are against you. When you can be shown mathematically why you should be doing that thing, whatever it is. But Snitker will be willing to lose playoff games by using Yates late in games, because he wants Yates to know his manager believes in him. Despite an entire season of warning signs.
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Post by TomlinFoolery on Sept 28, 2023 0:20:57 GMT -5
Lost in all the extra innings, Ronald stealing 70 was the effectiveness of Vines. Pitched very well giving up just 2 runs in my book. How the frig could 4 umps not clearly see and hear that foul ball?
Anywho 6 very solid innings by Vines
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 28, 2023 1:07:22 GMT -5
Yes it is. That's what gets me about him... It was literally a 3 foot miss. Which isn’t even unusual for Yates. I just don’t get why anyone would continue to do something in a manner where the odds are against you. When you can be shown mathematically why you should be doing that thing, whatever it is. But Snitker will be willing to lose playoff games by using Yates late in games, because he wants Yates to know his manager believes in him. Despite an entire season of warning signs. Pillar 3 for 21 against Smyly: must PH w/ Pillar.. LHB hitting over .300 against Smily while RHB hitting .241: MUST PH w/ PILLAR!!!!1!
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 28, 2023 7:45:55 GMT -5
The Cubs announcers were incensed the game was paused for a few moments after RA stole his 70th. They said they should just get the base after the game.
Aren't they trying to put excitement and fun into the game to make it more appealing to the masses? That was a moment the likes of which we may never see again, and they wanted RA to just stand there like it was any other stolen base and then celebrate the moment after the moment was gone like a belated birthday party.
The hatred we've seen this year from Mets, Philly, and now Cub announcers is the joke. If by some chance he doesn't win the MVP award it won't be because someone else deserved it more; it will be the voters just trying to show him because they hate the Braves organization and hate Acuña on a personal level.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 28, 2023 8:45:39 GMT -5
267 postseason ABs: 211/.285/.376/.661 He’s had a good bounce back season but is coming off two seasons where he had a combined .600 OPS. Riley has been terrible in the post season as well 133 PA, 125 AB, 48K, .216/.262/.328/.591. Is he a guy you wouldn't sign because of his terrible post season record? Bellinger has revamped his swing. He is certainly not the wild, free swinger he was in LA. He's been injured too. I guess maybe we'll see the real Bellinger as it plays out over the next 4-5 years. He's only 27. He's been much better this year but I think his price will be too high for a lot of teams because he will want a lot (and Boras is his agent). It remains to be seen whether he can sustain this kind of play in the future. It's a gamble for sure, especially at $25M, maybe more. If he doesn't stay in Chicago I see the New York teams and the Giants getting involved.
I'd prefer pitchers to another hitter anyways. There are some decent pitchers not named Morton that can be had for $10-20M. My guess is that Fried tests free agency next year so now is the time to sign a few guys, otherwise, in the future you get Strider, and maybe Wright and/or Elder if they get it together then anyone else who steps up. I'd take a look at Clevinger, Gray, K. Hendricks, Montgomery, Rodriguez, and maybe even Seth Lugo. Most of these guys are older but should have a few decent years left as we continue to develop our own. We signed Morton at age 37 and he's been here 3 years. Some of these guys are only 30 while other are around 32-34. Not signing Morton or Fried would also free up some money. Just a thought.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 28, 2023 11:47:30 GMT -5
267 postseason ABs: 211/.285/.376/.661 He’s had a good bounce back season but is coming off two seasons where he had a combined .600 OPS. Riley has been terrible in the post season as well 133 PA, 125 AB, 48K, .216/.262/.328/.591. Is he a guy you wouldn't sign because of his terrible post season record? Bellinger has revamped his swing. He is certainly not the wild, free swinger he was in LA. He's been injured too. I guess maybe we'll see the real Bellinger as it plays out over the next 4-5 years. He's only 27. He's been much better this year but I think his price will be too high for a lot of teams because he will want a lot (and Boras is his agent). It remains to be seen whether he can sustain this kind of play in the future. It's a gamble for sure, especially at $25M, maybe more. If he doesn't stay in Chicago I see the New York teams and the Giants getting involved.
I'd prefer pitchers to another hitter anyways. There are some decent pitchers not named Morton that can be had for $10-20M. My guess is that Fried tests free agency next year so now is the time to sign a few guys, otherwise, in the future you get Strider, and maybe Wright and/or Elder if they get it together then anyone else who steps up. I'd take a look at Clevinger, Gray, K. Hendricks, Montgomery, Rodriguez, and maybe even Seth Lugo. Most of these guys are older but should have a few decent years left as we continue to develop our own. We signed Morton at age 37 and he's been here 3 years. Some of these guys are only 30 while other are around 32-34. Not signing Morton or Fried would also free up some money. Just a thought.
Riley does have just 133 post season ABs compared to 267 for Bellinger. There are no guarantees that Bellinger will turn things around or not flop again and I agree he’ll cost a lot. I don’t like high risk gambles and the Braves don’t either. If you sign him instead of a pitcher or two and he flops then you also still have your same pitching problem. I agree I’d rather get two decent pitchers with that money. And it’s an actually even more of a risk we don’t want to take since Riley has struggled in the post season! We don’t need two of those!
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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 28, 2023 11:50:09 GMT -5
The Cubs announcers were incensed the game was paused for a few moments after RA stole his 70th. They said they should just get the base after the game. Aren't they trying to put excitement and fun into the game to make it more appealing to the masses? That was a moment the likes of which we may never see again, and they wanted RA to just stand there like it was any other stolen base and then celebrate the moment after the moment was gone like a belated birthday party. The hatred we've seen this year from Mets, Philly, and now Cub announcers is the joke. If by some chance he doesn't win the MVP award it won't be because someone else deserved it more; it will be the voters just trying to show him because they hate the Braves organization and hate Acuña on a personal level. Eff them, it was an historic moment in baseball. Instead of whining like little bitches, how about just shut up and play better baseball.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 28, 2023 11:52:47 GMT -5
Riley has been terrible in the post season as well 133 PA, 125 AB, 48K, .216/.262/.328/.591. Is he a guy you wouldn't sign because of his terrible post season record? Bellinger has revamped his swing. He is certainly not the wild, free swinger he was in LA. He's been injured too. I guess maybe we'll see the real Bellinger as it plays out over the next 4-5 years. He's only 27. He's been much better this year but I think his price will be too high for a lot of teams because he will want a lot (and Boras is his agent). It remains to be seen whether he can sustain this kind of play in the future. It's a gamble for sure, especially at $25M, maybe more. If he doesn't stay in Chicago I see the New York teams and the Giants getting involved.
I'd prefer pitchers to another hitter anyways. There are some decent pitchers not named Morton that can be had for $10-20M. My guess is that Fried tests free agency next year so now is the time to sign a few guys, otherwise, in the future you get Strider, and maybe Wright and/or Elder if they get it together then anyone else who steps up. I'd take a look at Clevinger, Gray, K. Hendricks, Montgomery, Rodriguez, and maybe even Seth Lugo. Most of these guys are older but should have a few decent years left as we continue to develop our own. We signed Morton at age 37 and he's been here 3 years. Some of these guys are only 30 while other are around 32-34. Not signing Morton or Fried would also free up some money. Just a thought.
Riley does have just 133 post season ABs compared to 267 for Bellinger. There are no guarantees that Bellinger will turn things around or not flop again and I agree he’ll cost a lot. I don’t like high risk gambles and the Braves don’t either. If you sign him instead of a pitcher or two and he flops then you also still have your same pitching problem. I agree I’d rather get two decent pitchers with that money. And as much as I like Charlie we’ve paid him a lot of money to be completely useless three years in a row in the playoffs, I would move on from him. And it’s an actually even more of a risk we don’t want to take since Riley has struggled in the post season! We don’t need two of those!
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Post by Fumbduckery on Sept 28, 2023 12:01:21 GMT -5
Which isn’t even unusual for Yates. I just don’t get why anyone would continue to do something in a manner where the odds are against you. When you can be shown mathematically why you should be doing that thing, whatever it is. But Snitker will be willing to lose playoff games by using Yates late in games, because he wants Yates to know his manager believes in him. Despite an entire season of warning signs. Pillar 3 for 21 against Smyly: must PH w/ Pillar.. LHB hitting over .300 against Smily while RHB hitting .241: MUST PH w/ PILLAR!!!!1! This is why managers should know certain stats. But Snitker brags that he doesn’t look at any numbers. He stood in the dugout during an interview mid September last year raving about how great Grossman had been offensively, and he had a .610 OPS for us at the time. I guarantee you if someone asked him what Pillars OPS is since mid June is he’d say around .800, instead of the .500 it actually is.
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Post by PABraveFan on Sept 28, 2023 14:35:34 GMT -5
Riley does have just 133 post season ABs compared to 267 for Bellinger. There are no guarantees that Bellinger will turn things around or not flop again and I agree he’ll cost a lot. I don’t like high risk gambles and the Braves don’t either. If you sign him instead of a pitcher or two and he flops then you also still have your same pitching problem. I agree I’d rather get two decent pitchers with that money. And as much as I like Charlie we’ve paid him a lot of money to be completely useless three years in a row in the playoffs, I would move on from him. And it’s an actually even more of a risk we don’t want to take since Riley has struggled in the post season! We don’t need two of those! Agreed...I want pitchers and lots of them. They go down too easy these days to not be prepared.
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Post by teolewis on Sept 28, 2023 15:24:46 GMT -5
Agreed...I want pitchers and lots of them. They go down too easy these days to not be prepared. As far as Bellinger I must be missing something. Doesn't he play 1st base and centerfield or is this another Bellinger. We have an excellent centerfielder and first baseman already. We need to get rid of a few of those lousy relievers and get a couple of really good ones and another starter in case Morton and Fried don't return. We don't need position players.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Sept 28, 2023 18:23:14 GMT -5
Pillar 3 for 21 against Smyly: must PH w/ Pillar.. LHB hitting over .300 against Smily while RHB hitting .241: MUST PH w/ PILLAR!!!!1! This is why managers should know certain stats. But Snitker brags that he doesn’t look at any numbers. He stood in the dugout during an interview mid September last year raving about how great Grossman had been offensively, and he had a .610 OPS for us at the time. I guarantee you if someone asked him what Pillars OPS is since mid June is he’d say around .800, instead of the .500 it actually is. If you asked Snit what his OPS was he would answer "Oh he's not injured at all... no OPS"
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