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Post by TomlinFoolery on May 17, 2023 22:01:31 GMT -5
Riley has been so brutal that Ozuna is just .020 behind him in OPS.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on May 17, 2023 22:18:27 GMT -5
Kudos to the bullpen tonight. 4 innings of 1 run ball. Also, even though he was 0-fer don't forget the Harris throw to nail the guy at home and prevent an even bigger inning. That was huge! He did.... but Eddie should have been allowed to hit as he is raking against LHP and then Pillar should have PH for Harris later in the game with Hilliard coming in to replace him in the field, but ya know.... Snotker: Who is an idiot. With Hilliard and Harris both on the roster... NO WAY am I scared to PH for Harris with Pillar, and PH Rosario because of a LHP is just butt- stupid.
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 17, 2023 23:00:09 GMT -5
Kudos to the bullpen tonight. 4 innings of 1 run ball. Also, even though he was 0-fer don't forget the Harris throw to nail the guy at home and prevent an even bigger inning. That was huge! He did.... but Eddie should have been allowed to hit as he is raking against LHP and then Pillar should have PH for Harris later in the game with Hilliard coming in to replace him in the field, but ya know.... Snotker: Who is an idiot. With Hilliard and Harris both on the roster... NO WAY am I scared to PH for Harris with Pillar, and PH Rosario because of a LHP is just butt- stupid. It's funny how certain guys are just dyed in the wool starter guys and will never be pinch hit for or sit for even a day, with the mentality that guy is your guy and if you stick with him every day it's going to pay off in the long run. But that doesn't work for others....which sucks because Rosario has proven he can hit lefties, just for less power. If he plays every day and doesn't get pinch hit for, that probably means he's going to hit better overall, even against righties, because he's getting all those ABs and staying sharper. And he feels you have confidence in him....which matters to Snitker for every starter except Rosario apparently.
Snitker falls in love with these mid level and lower talent players who are gritty guys and play hard. I get it, those are my favorite players to root for, but I'm just a fan I'm not the managering guy. When you have large sample sizes that tell you Pillar is a .700 career OPS guy, that matters. He's been a great defender, and been hot for a two weeks now with the bat, but if you use him more than just a very small role player eventually he's going to come back down to earth. Your odds are much better to just rely on Rosario every day, he's good enough overall that you'll be better off sticking with him.
But Pillar could go 0 for his next 30 and he will still start over Rosario against LHP and pinch hit for Rosario against lefties. Rosario is 9 for 20 against LHP this yer with a double and 2 HRs and a 1.211 OPS but somehow that has escaped the skull of Snikter. I'm not just complaining that he used Pillar to hit for Rosario tonight, it's just a mindset he's set on and it will stay that way through the playoffs, its not a one game thing. No matter what. And Harris could OPS .380 against lefties and he will never be pinch hit for.
It's not smart managering. It's trying to act like you have a hunch and are going to outsmart the baseball gods. In the long run, no, you aren't.
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Post by PABraveFan on May 18, 2023 7:25:11 GMT -5
He did.... but Eddie should have been allowed to hit as he is raking against LHP and then Pillar should have PH for Harris later in the game with Hilliard coming in to replace him in the field, but ya know.... Snotker: Who is an idiot. With Hilliard and Harris both on the roster... NO WAY am I scared to PH for Harris with Pillar, and PH Rosario because of a LHP is just butt- stupid. It's funny how certain guys are just dyed in the wool starter guys and will never be pinch hit for or sit for even a day, with the mentality that guy is your guy and if you stick with him every day it's going to pay off in the long run. But that doesn't work for others....which sucks because Rosario has proven he can hit lefties, just for less power. If he plays every day and doesn't get pinch hit for, that probably means he's going to hit better overall, even against righties, because he's getting all those ABs and staying sharper. And he feels you have confidence in him....which matters to Snitker for every starter except Rosario apparently.
Snitker falls in love with these mid level and lower talent players who are gritty guys and play hard. I get it, those are my favorite players to root for, but I'm just a fan I'm not the managering guy. When you have large sample sizes that tell you Pillar is a .700 career OPS guy, that matters. He's been a great defender, and been hot for a two weeks now with the bat, but if you use him more than just a very small role player eventually he's going to come back down to earth. Your odds are much better to just rely on Rosario every day, he's good enough overall that you'll be better off sticking with him.
But Pillar could go 0 for his next 30 and he will still start over Rosario against LHP and pinch hit for Rosario against lefties. Rosario is 9 for 20 against LHP this yer with a double and 2 HRs and a 1.211 OPS but somehow that has escaped the skull of Snikter. I'm not just complaining that he used Pillar to hit for Rosario tonight, it's just a mindset he's set on and it will stay that way through the playoffs, its not a one game thing. No matter what. And Harris could OPS .380 against lefties and he will never be pinch hit for.
It's not smart managering. It's trying to act like you have a hunch and are going to outsmart the baseball gods. In the long run, no, you aren't.
I was fine with either batting. Pillar has been hitting well too and had a PH HR several days ago batting for Rosario. Harris also made that catch off the deep fly given up by Minter. If Pillar was struggling then I would have questioned the move. Sometimes Snik does weird stuff though, I can agree with that. If Pillar comes through there we're probably not even talking about it. Sometimes hunches are good sometimes bad but most managers opt for the righty, lefty match up late in games, especially if it has been a platooned position, regardless of the numbers. It just seems like it's written in stone and shouldn't be. I have a problem in the past with him letting starting pitchers in too long or having weird lineups, especially with Ozuna, and strange use of the bullpen. His relentless use of Will Smith as closer during the regular season also bothered me but somehow Will Smith came up big in the World Series. Whether they win because of or despite Snit I'll take 5 NL East titles and a World Series.
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 18, 2023 7:44:14 GMT -5
Yep, sometimes hunches are good and sometimes they’re bad, and Pillar did hit that pinch hit HR the other day. But the point is over the long run those hunches will lose out to the fact that Rosario is a far better hitter. And he’s tearing up LHP this year. Snitker shows 100% faith in all his starters all the time except Rosario, and if he treated Rosario the same way odds are we’d get more out of him, with him getting more ABs and him knowing the managering guy believes in him. Picture Snitker pinch hitting for Riley or Olson during these slumps they’re in. Not gonna happen, but he pinch hits for Rosario when he’s been hitting overall and been hitting lefties really well. Murphy is slumping now, will he be pinch hit for? Nope. Just be consistent. Rosario has proven over a large sample size he should be playing every day and Pillar has proven over a large sample size he’s well short of being anything but a small role player. Two weeks ago his OPS was .660 and odds are he will be under .700 soon, history tells us that. If we want to get Pillar ABs while he’s hot he should play CF and sit Harris who is struggling against both lefties and even righties. But nope, let’s sit the guy who is hitting .350 for three weeks and killing LHP.
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Post by PABraveFan on May 18, 2023 8:18:58 GMT -5
Yep, sometimes hunches are good and sometimes they’re bad, and Pillar did hit that pinch hit HR the other day. But the point is over the long run those hunches will lose out to the fact that Rosario is a far better hitter. And he’s tearing up LHP this year. Snitker shows 100% faith in all his starters all the time except Rosario, and if he treated Rosario the same way odds are we’d get more out of him, with him getting more ABs and him knowing the managering guy believes in him. Picture Snitker pinch hitting for Riley or Olson during these slumps they’re in. Not gonna happen, but he pinch hits for Rosario when he’s been hitting overall and been hitting lefties really well. Murphy is slumping now, will he be pinch hit for? Nope. Just be consistent. Rosario has proven over a large sample size he should be playing every day and Pillar has proven over a large sample size he’s well short of being anything but a small role player. Two weeks ago his OPS was .660 and odds are he will be under .700 soon, history tells us that. If we want to get Pillar ABs while he’s hot he should play CF and sit Harris who is struggling against both lefties and even righties. But nope, let’s sit the guy who is hitting .350 for three weeks and killing LHP. ? All valid points for long term. In this particular instance and this pitcher and his stuff I guess the move was a hunch. Managers seem to go with their hunches over reason and even numbers a lot of the time. Why does Philly lead off with Schwarber, a HR hitter who K's a lot? Why is Ozuna playing so much? Why did Texas take out Eovaldi with 90 pitches who was doing well and bring in their shaky bullpen last night? Why did a shaky Jansen close when Iglesias was almost unhittable last year? Remember on opening day a few years ago the Philly manager took out Nola, who was pitching a gem, after ~70 pitches and brought in a reliever and the Braves made a comeback and won the game. He said after the game his numbers after 70 dropped or something to that effect (it didn't have anything to do with being stretched out) and was roundly criticized for removing Nola. I don't think Snitker considers Rosario a permanent starter and therein is the reason for the pinch hitting. Rosario did make some nice defensive plays also last night but Pillar is considered the better defensive player. Right or wrong, that position has been rotational most of the year. Like you mentioned, he most likely wouldn't PH for a starter, unless it was maybe another starter who was resting, but even then it's highly doubtful. Either way, for some reason, it really didn't bother me that much. Many other things he does bother me much more. Maybe I've just grown too accustomed to that's just the way it is baseball thinking!
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 18, 2023 11:02:11 GMT -5
I don’t think you’re wrong with anything you said but why do we have 8 guys who are going to play every day but Rosario is not looked at that same way. He’s been a better than average defensive player during his career and he puts Pillar to shame when you compare their careers as overall players. He was probably the main reason we beat the Dodgers when we won the World Series, playing every day. He’s back to his old self now that he has recovered from his eye issues, which was really major. And he’s been really good for three weeks now. But yet he sits and gets pinch hit for. Again this isn’t about one game, it’s a season long issue to me. Why are there no situations when Harris gets PH for, especially when he’s struggling? Or Riley or the other guys? That’s my issue is that Rosario should be treated the same way. The only reason he isn’t is because Snitker has a season long hunch that Rosario shouldn’t bat against lefties, for some odd reason. I’d be willing to bet we could look at other starters splits and see that they shouldn’t be batting sometimes. Why did he stick with Ozuna the way he did but won’t show that confidence in Rosario?
Thanks for talking about this, I’m certainly not trying to argue with you just stating why I think it’s stupid to have this mindset that Snitker does. If Rosario was 0 for 20 this year against lefties it would make sense. If Eddie didn’t have a career batting average that is higher against lefties than righties or would make sense. But he does, so it makes no sense. Instead of trying to figure out why Snitker does some of the stupid things he does i’d be better off to just 100% accept he’s just a hard headed stubborn old man who has no clue about stats and goes by some silly hunches. I’m 50/50 with stats and eye test, but I do think there are stats that should considering and this is one of those situations.
It’s no mystery why Snitker was in our minor league system for 85 years, we knew all along he wasn’t big league manager material.
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Post by PABraveFan on May 18, 2023 13:41:58 GMT -5
I don’t think you’re wrong with anything you said but why do we have 8 guys who are going to play every day but Rosario is not looked at that same way. He’s been a better than average defensive player during his career and he puts Pillar to shame when you compare their careers as overall players. He was probably the main reason we beat the Dodgers when we won the World Series, playing every day. He’s back to his old self now that he has recovered from his eye issues, which was really major. And he’s been really good for three weeks now. But yet he sits and gets pinch hit for. Again this isn’t about one game, it’s a season long issue to me. Why are there no situations when Harris gets PH for, especially when he’s struggling? Or Riley or the other guys? That’s my issue is that Rosario should be treated the same way. The only reason he isn’t is because Snitker has a season long hunch that Rosario shouldn’t bat against lefties, for some odd reason. I’d be willing to bet we could look at other starters splits and see that they shouldn’t be batting sometimes. Why did he stick with Ozuna the way he did but won’t show that confidence in Rosario? Thanks for talking about this, I’m certainly not trying to argue with you just stating why I think it’s stupid to have this mindset that Snitker does. If Rosario was 0 for 20 this year against lefties it would make sense. If Eddie didn’t have a career batting average that is higher against lefties than righties or would make sense. But he does, so it makes no sense. Instead of trying to figure out why Snitker does some of the stupid things he does i’d be better off to just 100% accept he’s just a hard headed stubborn old man who has no clue about stats and goes by some silly hunches. I’m 50/50 with stats and eye test, but I do think there are stats that should considering and this is one of those situations. It’s no mystery why Snitker was in our minor league system for 85 years, we knew all along he wasn’t big league manager material. Rosario has certainly been good this year against LHP. Long term they are about equal with Pillar having the edge only because of more HR's.
Short term i.e. 2023 stats against LHP: Rosario 19 PA, .421, 1.211 OPS Pillar 44 PA, .349 AVG, .946 OPS
Long term stats against LHP: Rosario .275 AVG, .706 OPS Rosario has similar stats against both though less HR's against lefties thus the lower OPS Pillar .283 AVG, .780 OPS
Like someone mentioned though over the long term is a better indicator and there doesn't seem to be a big difference other than Pillar displays more power against LHP. Rosario is due for a big correction against LHP. He will not maintain that short term pace. Years of history shows it to be the case. Pillar is also over performing, albeit not by as much. He went with his hunch. The long term stats indicate he could have gone either way and the short term stats indicate both are over performing against LHP and due for a correction. Since it has been mostly a platoon situation he chose Pillar in that situation. Like we've both said neither is seen as a permanent starter so it's not surprising. He could have let Rosario bat and subbed Pillar into LF the next inning if it was defense he wanted. He chose to do both. Maybe it was Rosario's .214 avg, .714 OPS while Pillar was a bit better at .250, 1.058 over the last week. I doubt he really takes a lot of that stuff into consideration, even if he is aware of it. He could have also PH Murphy who has a .326 AVG, 1.059 OPS against LHP if he wanted a RH batter and then put Pillar in LF taking d'Arnaud's place in the order. Murph is in a bit of a down time though with the bat. I can't be to upset about several AB's or every little move he makes or I'd drive myself crazy. I get more upset about things he constantly does over and over again that affect an entire inning(s) or ultimately game(s).
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 18, 2023 15:42:47 GMT -5
Look at the three year run Rosario had with Minnesota when he played every day, averaged about 30 HR a year, close to 100 RBI a year and an .800 OPS and let’s see where Pillar has come anywhere near that. Rosario has a career OPS 65 points higher than Pillar. My point is overall performance. What you can get from a guy by playing him every day, what is potential, what has he proven he can do in that role?
If you want to break it down and say Pillar is better against LHP than Rosario then also compare Pillar to Harris against LHP. And maybe even Olson and Pillar against LHP. And break down how all the other starters have been against RHP or LHP, depending on which side they hit from, and I’ll bet Pillar is better against LHP than some of those other guys. Look at Arcia against RHP during his career. Etc etc etc.
But Snitker doesn’t and never has paid attention to splits with any of his starters.
And part of my point too is if Rosario played every day it’s a good bet he would be hitting well against left and righty pitchers. He’s just been screwed out of 10 ABs in the last several days. Would that be good for the starters? They always need to get their swings in and they are allowed to. It matters. Probably both mentally and physically.
I recall one time we had a day off then got rained out the next day and Freddie was crying about losing his edge…..so an elite hitter needs to get his licks in but a guy like Adrianza can get 6 ABs in a month and we’re supposed to pray he can pull magic out of his rear end. Or in a hot streak Rosario suddenly sits two days then gets pinch hit for.
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Post by Fumbduckery on May 18, 2023 18:24:10 GMT -5
This year:
Olson against LHP .196/.297/.375/.672 Riley against RHP .229/.305/.322/.627 d'Arnaud RHP .194/.242/.258/.500 (Murphy is good, as was Acuna) Ozzie against RHP .177/.238/.336/.574
Ozuna LHP .171/.244/.439/.683 and RHP .180/.306/.426/.732 Arcia RHP .276/.323/.345/.667 Harris LHP .207/.258/.379/.637 RHP worse .186/.300/.233/.533 Rosario LHP .421/.421/.789/1.211 Pillar RHP .156/.250/.375/.625
But there's only one guy we pay any attention to regarding splits. And Pillar a few times but he has quite a few ABs against RHP.
One other thought about splits, how impressive is Acuna?
LHP .340/.456/.596/1.052
RHP .347/.432/.620/1.051
And that's with the managering guy being fine and dandy with pitchers busting Acuna inside constantly with no fear of hitting him.
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