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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 10, 2020 14:45:00 GMT -5
Isaias Recap *** METMAN WEATHER SERVICES 10 Aug 2020 3:35 PM EDT Severe Weather... Aside from the initial severe weather associated with landfall in NC, Isaias spawned tornadoes in VA, MD, DE, NJ, and PA. Rainfall totals from Isaias: Rainfall totals were generally in the range forecasted, however, heavier rainfall totals of 3-6" isolated areas to 8" extended north into eastern MD, northern DE and into eastern PA. Forecast was for 2-4" isolated 6" north of VA. This was likely due to a better organized and defined storm and strength gained by attaining hurricane status for several hours before and after landfall. Forecast....Storm surge of 3-4' for 50-75 miles on either side of landfall is likely. Storm surge: Myrtle Beach, SC 4.2' 32 miles Wilmington, NC 4', 40 miles Wrightsville, NC 3.2', 43 miles Georgetown, SC 3', 74 miles Beaufort, NC 2.8', 115 miles Forecast....35-45 MPH or more sustained winds with gusts to 60 MPH or more in some areas just north of landfall Wind Gusts: Wrightsville Beach, NC 86 MPH, 43 miles NE Wilmington, NC 74 MPH, 40 miles NE New River, NC 63 MPH, 76 miles NE Cedar Point, NC 61 MPH, 95 miles NE Forecast...25-40 MPH sustained winds with 50-60 MPH winds gusts north of the storm center as she progresses NE. While sustained winds in some areas were a bit higher most areas were in the forecasted range. Wind gusts tended to be in range but some areas on the eastern side of the storm had gusts to over 70 MPH as Isaias tracked northward even into New England where maximum Massachusetts wind gusts of 61-63 MPH were reported. End Recap More information about hurricanes can be found in the 'Hurricane Information' section on my web page. Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 17, 2020 9:10:38 GMT -5
For those interested: A preliminary version of my scientific paper on global climate models (Global Climate Models: Exploring the Reliability, Consistency, Limitations, Deficiencies, Uncertainties, and Methods of Global Climate Models in a Nonlinear and Chaotic Climate System) has been reviewed, accepted and published on Semantic Scholar. This version still has hyperlinks, which have been deleted or replaced in the final version with the actual references in the bibliography. I'm working on getting the finalized version published. You can go to my website to read the final version on my web page. You can also view/download as PDF or download to read in MS Word from that page. Edited: The version at this URL is now the FINALIZED version! Semantic Scholar Published Preliminary Version of Global Climate Models: Exploring the Reliability, Consistency, Limitations, Deficiencies, Uncertainties, and Methods of Global Climate Models in a Nonlinear and Chaotic Climate System My Website Page (final version) -PA
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 22, 2020 10:10:22 GMT -5
Hurricanes Laura and Marco are continuing their paths toward the Gulf of Mexico and will likely make landfall in the middle of next week. The path for both storms has tracked more westerly with Marco expected to make landfall in Texas, south of Houston, sometime late Tuesday and Laura is expected to make landfall in Louisiana Wednesday afternoon. It's possible some interaction may occur but the probability of merging is very small. It's more likely that the the stronger hurricane will continue and the other one will weaken or if both storms are relatively close in strength then both storm will most likely weaken. This interaction could upset the timing and position of landfall for both storms, and cause some veering to the east for Marco and west for Laura. In nearly all cases storms passing close to each other ultimately have a detrimental affect on both storms. It's also possible that one or both storms may deintensify before these events can unfold. Should be an interesting scenario to follow next week.
For more information google the Fujiwhara Effect.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Aug 22, 2020 15:02:39 GMT -5
Okay, so two storms in the gulf at the same time. Can these things feed off one another and become some monster thing? ... because that would be soooooooo just like 2020.
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 22, 2020 16:04:08 GMT -5
Okay, so two storms in the gulf at the same time. Can these things feed off one another and become some monster thing? ... because that would be soooooooo just like 2020. They could but it's highly unlikely for a mega-storm to develop. It's more likely in these situations that energy is drawn into the strongest storm and the weaker storm dissipates or both storms become weaker. There's a variety of complicated dynamical, physical and atmospheric motion equations to explain this scenario that I have long since forgotten the details as tropical weather systems was a tertiary or lower area of study for me.
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Post by Fumbduckery on Aug 22, 2020 17:41:58 GMT -5
Okay, so two storms in the gulf at the same time. Can these things feed off one another and become some monster thing? ... because that would be soooooooo just like 2020. Like a category 17 hurricane.
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 22, 2020 17:53:42 GMT -5
Marco is anticipated to accelerate and is now expected to make landfall Monday. It's path has also been shifted eastward to Louisiana. Laura is still forecast to make landfall Wednesday, also in Louisiana. Two possible hurricane/tropical storm expected now to impact Louisiana 2 days apart.
Holy Smokes batman!!!
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Aug 22, 2020 20:25:24 GMT -5
See y'all forgettin' the "2020 factor".
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 24, 2020 13:30:05 GMT -5
***Marco and Laura Update*** 24 Aug 2020 2:15 PM EST Metman Weather Services Marco has decreased significantly in strength with just 50 MPH sustained winds and is expected to continue to weaken. Coincidentally, the upper trough with the strong SW flow aloft that has been persistent in the southeast has created shear that is tearing apart the storm at the upper levels and moving the areas of rainfall and thunderstorms to the NE side of Marco. Landfall expected this evening in eastern LA as a weak tropical storm and it will turn westward into drier air and be downgraded rapidly to a tropical depression. All wind and surge warnings for the Gulf coast associated with Marco have been discontinued. This is good news for LA and points west. Abundant moisture from Marco will travel NE into AL and GA creating numerous showers, some heavy, and a few scattered thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Laura continues to track WNW and is forecast to intensify as it moves through the warm Gulf waters and encounters minimal vertical shear. The upper trough and its associated shear is expected to extend westward as Marco moves west opening up a path for Laura to turn slightly more to the north Wednesday with landfall expected in western LA very late Wednesday or early Thursday morning. The expanding Bermuda high will keep Laura moving to the WNW in the near term with eventually turning to the NW and then NNW by Wednesday afternoon. Models aren't in total agreement over the intensity but Laura is expected to strengthen slightly later tonight and could reach hurricane status quickly on Tuesday as she moves over the warm gulf waters with insignificant shear and favorable upper level conditions. It's possible that Laura could reach Cat 2 status and possible, but improbable at this time, that it could reach major hurricane, Cat 3, status before landfall with damaging high winds, severe weather, flooding and a dangerous storm surge. Current projections indicate a strong Cat 1 hurricane with winds possibly in excess of 90 MPH and winds gust to 105 MPH. More information about hurricanes can be found in the 'Hurricane Information' section on my web page. -PA Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
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Post by Hart's Middle Finger on Aug 24, 2020 21:00:47 GMT -5
Thanks for the update... I can't imagine that area of the country could have withstood back to back hurricane landings within days, if not hours.
At least my fear of the two storms combining into a "perfect storm" didn't happen, and Marco slumped off.
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 25, 2020 14:10:15 GMT -5
***Marco (final update) and Laura Update*** 25 Aug 2020 2:25 PM EST Metman Weather Services
Marco has no significant convective activity and is now classified as a post-tropical remnant low pressure system. Marco will continue to track westward along the LA coastline and gradually dissipate.
Hurricane Laura continues to track WNW and is forecast to continue to intensify as it moves through the warm Gulf waters. Laura is still forecast to make landfall early Thursday near the TX/LA border (i.e. Port Arthur/Beaumont, TX) but the continued WNW track before turning to the NW could push landfall just slightly to the west of that somewhere between Beaumont and Houston. As discussed in the last update, the expanding Bermuda high will keep Laura moving to the WNW in the near term and eventually turning to the NW tonight and then NNW by Wednesday afternoon and N by Wednesday night. Laura is expected to continue to strengthen today and could reach CAT 2 status by early Wednesday morning. Conditions are favorable for further intensification and Laura is now forecast to reach Cat 3 status Wednesday before encountering shear near landfall. Laura should make landfall as a very strong CAT 2 hurricane although maintaining CAT 3 status upon landfall is very possible also. Laura will bring damaging high winds in excess of 100 MPH with gusts to 125+ MPH, severe weather, extensive flooding of 4-8' or more over flood levels and a dangerous storm surge of 8-12' in eastern TX and southern LA. Upon landfall Laura will continue northward through LA and AR on Thursday and then turn NNE/NE into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Saturday and exiting into the Atlantic late Saturday or early Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 4"-12" in SE TX and western LA are expected within 75 miles of Laura's path and 1-4" on the periphery of each side, especially east. After an initial decrease in intensity after landfall Laura could strengthen somewhat later Thursday bringing heavy rains of 2-6" or more along its path farther inland throughout eastern TX, western LA and western AR. Localized amounts of greater than 6" are possible. As Laura turns to the NE expect 1-4" with localized higher amounts, especially western areas, through the lower Ohio Valley and 1-2", isolated 3" amounts as she moves through the mid-Atlantic.
Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 26, 2020 8:35:49 GMT -5
***Laura Update*** 26 Aug 2020 9:30 AMm EDT Metman Weather Services
Hurricane Laura continues to track NW now and is forecast to continue to intensify and as it moves through the warm Gulf waters with little resistance. Laura is still forecast to make landfall sometime early Thursday morning near the TX/LA border (i.e. Port Arthur/Beaumont, TX). Laura has turned to the NW and will veer NNW by Wednesday afternoon and nearly N by Wednesday night. Conditions for further intensification in the near term are favorable with low shear and Laura is now forecast to reach Cat 4 status Wednesday afternoon before encountering shear before landfall and returning to CAT 3. Laura should now make landfall as a CAT 3 hurricane bringing damaging high winds in excess of 115 MPH with possible gusts to 135+ MPH, severe weather, 30' waves, extensive flooding of up to 10' or more over flood levels and a dangerous storm surge of 8-12' in eastern TX and southern LA, and possibly up to 15' in some areas in LA on the east side of the storm. Upon landfall Laura will lose strength rapidly but still bring drenching rains as she continues northward through LA and AR on Thursday and Friday and then turns ENE/E into Kentucky and VA on Saturday before exiting into the Atlantic late Saturday or early Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 4"-12" in SE TX and western LA are expected within 75 miles of Laura's path with heavier rain extending farther east. Heavy rains of 4-8" or more are expected along its path farther inland throughout eastern TX, western LA, AR, and western KY. Localized amounts of greater than 8" are possible. As Laura turns to the E through KY expect 1-4" with localized higher amounts, especially western areas, and 1-2", isolated 3" amounts as she moves through central/northern VA.
Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 26, 2020 14:50:49 GMT -5
***Laura Update (final update before landfall)*** 26 Aug 2020 3:45 PM EDT Metman Weather Services
Hurricane Laura continues to track NNW now as a CAT 4 hurricane and is forecast to continue to intensify somewhat as it moves through the warm northern Gulf waters. Laura is still forecast to make landfall sometime early Thursday morning near the TX/LA border (i.e. between Port Arthur/Beaumont, TX and Lake Charles, LA). Laura has turned to the NW/NNW a tad earlier than expected and will veer N Thursday after landfall. Laura will encounter shear and possibly an eyewall replacement cycle limiting further intensity before landfall. Nevertheless, Laura is expected to hit the LA/TX coast with fury and the devastating effects of a powerful CAT 4 hurricane.
Laura will bring damaging high winds in excess of 135 MPH with possible gusts to 160+ MPH, severe weather, 30' waves, extensive flooding of up to 10' or more over flood levels and a dangerous storm surge of 8-12' in eastern TX and southern LA, and possibly up to 15' or more in some areas in LA on the east side of the storm. Storm surge is possible 20-30 miles inland. Upon landfall Laura will lose strength rapidly but still bring drenching rains and flash flooding as she continues northward through LA and AR on Thursday and Friday and then turns ENE/E into Kentucky and VA on Saturday before exiting into the Atlantic late Saturday or early Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 4"-12" in extreme SE TX and western half of LA are expected within 50-75 miles of Laura's path with heavier rain extending farther east. Heavy rains of 4-8" or more are expected along its path farther inland throughout eastern TX, western LA, AR, and possibly into SE MO, southern IL, and western KY. Isolated localized amounts of 8" or more are possible. As Laura turns to the E through KY expect 1-4" with localized higher amounts to 6", especially in the western areas, and 1-3", isolated 4" amounts as she moves through/near West VA, extreme southern Ohio, southwestern PA and central/northern VA, MD/DE and exits into the Atlantic where Laura could then re-intensify.
Disclaimer: As a retired former DOD meteorologist and National Weather Service employee I am no longer authorized to issue official weather watches, warnings and advisories. This information is intended for specific users. These are my projections, opinions, and analysis and as such should be used by others only for information and planning at your own risk and not used in lieu of currently certified, licensed, and authorized meteorologists or certified and trained weather forecaster technicians from sources such as local media, National Weather Service, Accuweather, The Weather Channel etc.
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 27, 2020 7:29:21 GMT -5
From the National Hurricane Center...
"Laura made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, around 0600 UTC (1 am CDT) with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt, which is near the high end of category 4 status. At the time of landfall, Laura was a ferocious looking hurricane with a clear circular eye, an intense eyewall, and tightly-coiled surrounding spiral bands. Since the powerful hurricane has been inland for a few hours, there has been some decrease in winds, and the estimated initial wind speed based on Doppler radar data, surface observations, and guidance from an inland decay model is 105 kt."
Notes: Cameron, LA is ~30 miles SSW of Lake Charles, LA and 37 miles east of Port Arthur, TX Cat 4 Hurricane = 113-136 kt, 130-156 mph 130kt = ~150 MPH 4 AM CDT winds = ~120 MPH
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Post by PABraveFan on Aug 27, 2020 21:28:48 GMT -5
Hurricane Laura now has her own section on my Weather Forecasts web page entitled Hurricane Laura Aug 2020.
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